Poll of the Day > Sony's new GAY Film is an OSCAR Contender that has a SEX Scene with a PEACH!!!

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madadude
09/14/17 3:00:23 AM
#52:


And looking back to award pundits talking in early 2014 before the awards. 55% predicting 12 Years a Slave winning, 34% predicted Gravity, and 9% predicted American Hustle, while only 0.59% predicted Dallas Buyers Club (all the meanwhile people predicting DBC would win all the awards it actually went on to win).
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Zeus
09/14/17 3:17:44 AM
#53:


madadude posted...
So? We are talking about the race for best picture, as you clearly were making clear. Plus Social Network won editing and screenplay which are far more significant categories than actress in terms of winning best picture, and Inception won purely technical awards, and wasn't even nominated for director, so it had nothing significant going for it.


Those things tend to correlate more strongly with best picture. And Social Network didn't win best screenplay, it won best adapted screenplay. You know what did win best screenplay (aka best original screenplay)? The King's Speech. Which, by the way, also won best director and best actor.

madadude posted...
Again, so?

The number of Oscars won isn't what we are talking about here, we are talking about being a runner up for Best Picture. The precursor awards, which are the most common predictors of the Oscar race, as well as looking at what pundits were predicting at the time, clearly show American Hustle was third and had a slim chance, while Dallas Buyers Club had none. Dallas Buyers Club was the favorite to win actor, supporting actor, and makeup as those were the film's strengths. Acting awards are not a good predictor of best picture winners, plenty of acting winners haven't had their film nominated in best picture over the years. A good amount have also been the sole nominee of their film, yet won the award.

Both before the awards and after the awards, the vast consensus was that American Hustle was the second runner up, while Dallas Buyers Club wasn't on the radar to win.

American Hustle had a director nomination, which Dallas didn't have. In terms of the actual other awards predicting the Oscar winner, the best predictors are the nominees of director, screenplay and editing.

12 Years a Slave and American Hustle were the only ones to have all 3. Dallas and Captain Phillips didn't have directing nominations, Nebraska and Wolf of Wall Street didn't have editing nominations. Gravity didn't have a screenplay nomination.

AH would have certainly beat Dallas.


So you claim and so you'd like to believe, but Dallas won more awards closely associated with a big win.

madadude posted...
It was the favorite to win up until the Producer's Guild Award went to Argo.


Favorite by who? If those are the same pundits you've been listening to, clearly they're divorced from reality.
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madadude
09/14/17 6:10:03 AM
#54:


Zeus posted...
So you claim and so you'd like to believe, but Dallas won more awards closely associated with a big win.


No it didn't. It didn't win any awards associated with a big win. Best Actor, Supporting Actor, and Makeup are not associated with a big win.

Clearly you are the one divorced from reality if you think that
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madadude
09/14/17 6:11:42 AM
#55:


Zeus posted...
Those things tend to correlate more strongly with best picture. And Social Network didn't win best screenplay, it won best adapted screenplay. You know what did win best screenplay (aka best original screenplay)? The King's Speech. Which, by the way, also won best director and best actor.


Winning oscars isn't correlated with winning best picture. Winning or getting nominated for best director, best screenplay (adapted or original), or best editing is what is correlated more strong with best picture.

Also both adapted screenplay and original screenplay are screenplay awards. Don't be daft.

But you know is more correlated with winning best picture, far more than winning acting awards that is for sure. Is winning the PGA, the DGA, the BAFTA, or the Golden Globe.

You clearly know nothing about this.

Zeus posted...
Favorite by who?


Literally everyone that actually pays attention to this stuff, unlike you.
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madadude
09/14/17 7:46:37 AM
#56:


Figured I would get some stats to show how you are blatantly wrong.

So for The Social Network:
It won editing, which 46% of the past 35 best picture winners have done. It also won adapted screenplay, which 48.5% of the 35 best picture winners have done (and 74% of best picture winners have won one of the screenplay awards in general). Black Swan only won Best Actress (which only 14% of picture winners have done) and it was not even nominated for screenplay, which only 1/35 have done (Titanic, which won directing, editing, and a heap of other awards that Black Swan didn't), so you can throw its chances out. Inception was not even nominated for directing, which only 2/35 have done (Argo, which won editing and screenplay, neither of which Inception won, and Driving Miss Daisy, which won screenplay, which again Inception didn't do) so you can throw its chances out.

So from that you can clearly see Social Network had a better shot at winning best picture than Black Swan or Inception, and really Social Network was the only competition to King's Speech that year.

(Also far more best picture winners have won adapted screenplay compared than original screenplay, so you quip about it only winning adapted and not original only hurts your argument, it is better to win adapted screenplay if you want to win best picture than original screenplay and if anything, but go ahead I like to see you shoot yourself in the foot and prove to me that you know nothing about this).



Now for American Hustle v. Dallas Buyers Club:

Only 25% of the past 35 best picture winners have won best actor, and only 11% have won best supporting actor, so you can already see that it is much better to win best editing than best actor or best supporting actor. Additionally Dallas Buyers Club was not nominated for director, which again only 2/35 (thats roughly 6% if you can't understand fractions) have done.

Compare that to American Hustle, which was nominated for director, original screenplay, and editing. In the past 35 years only 11% of films have won best picture without being nominated for all 3. American Hustle was nominated for all 3, Dallas Buyers Club was not nominated for director. Do I need to spell it out more?


And finally when it comes to Argo vs. Lincoln:

In the 30 years prior, only one other film (Driving Miss Daisy) has won best picture without even being nominated for best director. Meanwhile Lincoln, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings Playbook were all nominated for picture, director, screenplay and editing, which 89% of the past 35 winners have been nominated for. Anyone with a brain would have sided with Lincoln, Life of Pi, or Silver Linings Playbook with this information before Argo won the PGA, and anyone who thought otherwise, like you apparently, must have been completely divorced from reality as you say.
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madadude
09/14/17 8:20:11 AM
#57:


And I'll repeat again because clearly you are hard of hearing, the PGA, the DGA, and the Golden Globes are much better indicators at who will win best picture than the winners of any of the other oscar categories.


In the 28 years it has been around, the best picture winner has matched with the PGA winner 19 times.

In this same time frame, the best picture winner has matched with the DGA winner 20 out of 28 times

And the best picture winner has also won either the drama golden globe or comedy/musical golden globe 16 out of 28 times.

All stronger than winning any oscar besides director which has won 19 out of 28 best pictures in this time frame. So its honestly better for a director to win a directing award at the DGA than at the oscars.

In terms of being associated to a best picture win, it goes from most likely to least likely
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Editing
Best Original Screenplay
A Lead Acting Award
A Supporting Acting Award
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Revelation34
09/14/17 1:00:57 PM
#58:


madadude posted...
Best Actor, Supporting Actor, and Makeup are not associated with a big win.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FopyRHHlt3M

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Zeus
09/14/17 2:03:59 PM
#59:


Revelation34 posted...
madadude posted...
Best Actor, Supporting Actor, and Makeup are not associated with a big win.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FopyRHHlt3M


I know, right? I kind of wonder if people can keep a straight face while posting stuff like that.
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Zeus
09/14/17 2:13:39 PM
#60:


madadude posted...
Winning oscars isn't correlated with winning best picture. Winning or getting nominated for best director, best screenplay (adapted or original), or best editing is what is correlated more strong with best picture.


Ok, how many films have won best picture without winning one of the other major awards?

madadude posted...
Figured I would get some stats to show how you are blatantly wrong.


Were those stats from the same pundits who thought Lincoln would sweep?
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madadude
09/14/17 7:26:16 PM
#61:


Those stats were from the Academy Award database. You know because they are stats and not opinions from the mind of someone who doesn't know what they are talking about like you.

Zeus posted...
I know, right? I kind of wonder if people can keep a straight face while posting stuff like that.


I already showed only 25% of films that win best picture win best actor, and only 11% of picture winners win best supporting actor.

Editing, Directing, and Adapted or Original Screenplay. Not to mention to PGA, DGA, BAFTA, GG, and SAG Ensemble are what really matters.

Forest Whitaker won best Actor for Last King of Scotland and the film wasn't nominated for anything else. Are you telling me it had a better shot to win best picture than movies that didn't win best actor?


Also good job not even acknowledging the ways I have disproved you. This is honestly hilarious
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madadude
09/14/17 7:38:03 PM
#62:


Really none of this matters though.

In the end of the day I will go on getting paid for my ability to forecast the annual award season and the Oscars, and you will go on knowing absolutely nothing about the subject.
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Veemon_X
09/14/17 8:14:29 PM
#63:


If someone's watching it, maybe. Just for curiosity... but sex scene with a peach sounds gross... like something a raunchy porno would use.

CountessRolab posted...
I think it actually looks really good. To discount a romance movie simply because it is gay is silly. Brokeback Mountain and Blue is the Warmest Color were both excellent.


Brokeback Mountain was overrated. Haven't seen Blue in the Warmest Color.
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madadude
09/14/17 9:11:00 PM
#64:


Veemon_X posted...
If someone's watching it, maybe. Just for curiosity... but sex scene with a peach sounds gross... like something a raunchy porno would use.


It is an odd scene I'll admit. It's the most iconic scene in the book, so obviously it had to be done in the film, but it does feel odd and slightly uncomfortable. Altogether the movie is really beautiful.
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Revelation34
09/14/17 9:55:15 PM
#65:


madadude posted...
In the end of the day I will go on getting paid for my ability to forecast the annual award season and the Oscars,


That's an even funnier claim.
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madadude
09/14/17 10:00:57 PM
#66:


Revelation34 posted...
madadude posted...
In the end of the day I will go on getting paid for my ability to forecast the annual award season and the Oscars,


That's an even funnier claim.


How so? It's funny that I get paid/win cash prizes for doing this?
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