Current Events > Attn: Darkman, concerning rockets

(+) Yeah! (+)

This comment, in regards to NK:

It's impossible to pinpoint exactly where a warhead will land until far too late. If rockets are launched towards Guam, our response has to be swift and decisive

Is it accurate?

@Darkman124
---

yes with caveats

initial trajectory of a BM is basically a slight angle of attack but mostly straight up

once at apogee the RV will undergo a series of small thruster movements to guide its trajectory on re-entry, and during re-entry will use fins to further manipulate its path

upon launch we have a good idea of where apogee will be since there are minimal in-flight movements available to a thrusting missile. so we can usually ID the nearest ship to launch a midcourse interceptor (SM-3 IIA, GMD, etc)

however the initial burn phase of its flight--which may be terminated early--can give guidance as to approximate range, as can its altitude at apogee. from that point on terminal interceptors in 'in range' cities and facilities can be spun up to be ready to launch their own terminal-phase interceptors (patriot, THAAD) when the time is right.
---

So in essence, if NK fired a test "near" guam, the US is likely to intercept regardless, as a risk mitigation strategy?
---

pinky0926 posted...

So in essence, if NK fired a test "near" guam, the US is likely to intercept regardless, as a risk mitigation strategy?

honestly it seems probable

the only thing we have to intercept with is GMD though
---

Darkman124 posted...

initial trajectory of a BM

---

Darkman124 posted...

pinky0926 posted...

So in essence, if NK fired a test "near" guam, the US is likely to intercept regardless, as a risk mitigation strategy?

honestly it seems probable

the only thing we have to intercept with is GMD though

Given all that, what do you think the actual probability of a successful intercept of a missile is?
---

Chicken posted...

Darkman124 posted...

initial trajectory of a BM

OhYou.jpg
---

Howl posted...

Given all that, what do you think the actual probability of a successful intercept of a missile is?

i would not be able to make an accurate estimate. GMD has only been subjected to a true intercept test once. it was successful, but has a spotty record. it's not my program, and if it were, i'd have to lie and say it wasn't for NDA reasons.

if i were guessing though, my answer would be low.
---