Current Events > PlayStation 5 will probably launch in 2019, analyst says

(+) Yeah! (+)

http://gamingbolt.com/ps5-will-likely-be-backwards-compatible-with-ps4-pro-will-possibly-launch-in-2019-michael-pachter

A couple of weeks ago, PlayStation’s America boss Shawn Layden confirmed that they will be developing a PlayStation 5 which will represent the next major step for the brand. This indicates that Sony will likely won’t release another mid-gen refresh for the PlayStation 4 and the PS5 will be a generational leap over the current gen console.

We recently spoke to Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter, and asked him about the successor to the PS4. Pachter believes that the PS5 will be backwards compatible with PS4 Pro (which also means that it will play base PS4 games) and it will probably release in 2019.

“I really like Shawn and I don’t think he is attempting to mislead anybody. The PlayStation 4 Pro is better [from a technical perspective] than the PS4, so I think that’s a half step towards the PlayStation 5. I think the PS5 will be another half step. So he is being honest when he said he is not doing a half step but the PlayStation 5…how much faster can it be? It will surely support 4K. Will it support 240 frames per second? Great. Will it play games that were made for the PlayStation 4 PRO? That’s the question. I think it will. So I think they will build a console that will backwards compatible with the PS4 Pro. So I think it will be perceived by the consumers to be a half step and I think Shawn is telling the truth when he says it’s will be a full fledged console,” he said to GamingBolt.

He also believes that the PS5 will launch in a market that is much more receptive to 4K content than it’s currently, giving Sony an edge.

“My expectation that is that it’s not coming out in 2018. That is a 2019 0r 2020 but probably 2019. Sony is probably timing it better because they are going to bring out a 4K capable device when the 4K TV market reaches 50% in the USA and 35% in the rest of the world. I think Sony has probably got the next console cycle nailed down already. I think, they already know what they got to do,” he further stated.
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wtf why so soon?

ruh roh
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Clad posted...

wtf why so soon?

Projections
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Analysts first said 2018. Now they said 2019. Suffice it to say...doesn't mean shit until you hear it directly from Sony.
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This guy is wrong almost 100% of the time. I guess he gets to keep his job cause no one else at Wedbush gives a fuck enough about video games to get rid of him.

Clad posted...

wtf why so soon?

6 years is the normal lifespan of a console
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Sounds about right.
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why the fuck does pachter get paid to do this

Clad posted...

wtf why so soon?

6 years is about average for a gen.

PS4 came out 7 years after PS3
PS3 came out 6 years after PS2 (which was a year before its competitors)
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No PS5 in 2019 confirmed.
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Pachter believes that the PS5 will be backwards compatible with PS4 Pro (which also means that it will play base PS4 games)

Ah, memories of playing Tales of the Abyss on my MGS4 PS3, stepping into Corral Castle and watching bats fly in neat little circles while Luke stood there ignoring my inputs.
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As I get a lot older, it does SEEM like that would be super early for a PS5, but yeah, looking at historical data, it's actually a pretty normal time span for a new console. It's just when you're a kid or whatever, 6 years seem so much longer.
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2020 would be my guess
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No it won't. Have they even started on it?

I feel like announcing a PS5 that is BC with PS4 and superior to PS4 Pro would reall really piss off people who bought a PS4 Pro, already considering that a lot of people were angry that a PS4 Pro existed at all, very few games actually used it, and it took older games and made them run worse.

I wouldn't hedge bets on a PS5 announcement in 2018, and if they announce it in 2019 which I feel is likely, it'd be completely bizarre for it to release on the same year.

And if a PS5 is really just a PS4 Pro Plus, they'd be caught in a lie about how they weren't planning on turning their console business model into a smartphone business model.

IMO, if consoles are going to survive the future, they need to become semi modular like PCs.

Sell a "PlayStation Foundation" where you can detach the GPU component and buy a better one. With limited offerings, GPUs can simply have their naming scheme adjusted for requirements. "Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, etc"

Then games can say "Requires Tier 2 or better graphics, or Tier 3 for 4k."
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ChromaticAngel posted...

I feel like announcing a PS5 that is BC with PS4 and superior to PS4 Pro would reall really piss off people who bought a PS4 Pro, already considering that a lot of people were angry that a PS4 Pro existed at all, very few games actually used it, and it took older games and made them run worse.

I wouldn't hedge bets on a PS5 announcement in 2018, and if they announce it in 2019 which I feel is likely, it'd be completely bizarre for it to release on the same year.

And if a PS5 is really just a PS4 Pro Plus, they'd be caught in a lie about how they weren't planning on turning their console business model into a smartphone business model.

IMO, if consoles are going to survive the future, they need to become semi modular like PCs.

Sell a "PlayStation Foundation" where you can detach the GPU component and buy a better one. With limited offerings, GPUs can simply have their naming scheme adjusted for requirements. "Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, etc"

Then games can say "Requires Tier 2 or better graphics, or Tier 3 for 4k."

I've thought about your idea for a while now. It'd be like PC gaming made easy. A controlled, small collection of upgrades made specifically by the console maker itself (Sony in this case), that are easily adjustable and catered to by game makers.
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Frankly, if they start doing that kind of crap, it would kill console gaming for me.

The mid-gen garbage is bad enough already.
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ChromaticAngel posted...

I feel like announcing a PS5 that is BC with PS4 and superior to PS4 Pro would reall really piss off people who bought a PS4 Pro, already considering that a lot of people were angry that a PS4 Pro existed at all, very few games actually used it, and it took older games and made them run worse.

I wouldn't hedge bets on a PS5 announcement in 2018, and if they announce it in 2019 which I feel is likely, it'd be completely bizarre for it to release on the same year.

And if a PS5 is really just a PS4 Pro Plus, they'd be caught in a lie about how they weren't planning on turning their console business model into a smartphone business model.

IMO, if consoles are going to survive the future, they need to become semi modular like PCs.

Sell a "PlayStation Foundation" where you can detach the GPU component and buy a better one. With limited offerings, GPUs can simply have their naming scheme adjusted for requirements. "Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, etc"

Then games can say "Requires Tier 2 or better graphics, or Tier 3 for 4k."

this seems pretty possible

i honestly wouldnt even be surprised if there is no PS5 and instead the next console is called just Playstation or something, where Sony will release updated versions of the system every now and then.

i view it as the same way that Apple releases new phones every year, and nobody but the hardcore fans upgrades to each model, but after like 3 or 4 years your phone kind of becomes obsolete, stops getting new updates, has problems with new apps etc and it's time to upgrade.

i think i'd stop buying gaming consoles tho if Sony pulled this
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Scorsese2002 posted...

Pachter

I can't think of a single thing he predicted that was accurate. Unless it is already announced, Patcher gets pretty much everything wrong. I honestly don't see how he still had a job.
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King Rial posted...

Scorsese2002 posted...

Pachter

I can't think of a single thing he predicted that was accurate. Unless it is already announced, Patcher gets pretty much everything wrong. I honestly don't see how he still had a job.

I know how. Basically, whatever he says is wrong, so just assume the opposite.

For instance, thanks to him, we can be confident that there will be no PS5 in 2019.

:)
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I felt like PS2 lasted forever while PS3 had a short life-cycle when in fact the gap between PS3 and PS4 was even longer.

Man I'm getting old.
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Outside of lolPachter, why would Sony even release the PS4 Pro, a redesign that's stronger than the current PS4, and then just overshadow it a little over a year later?
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ChromaticAngel posted...

I feel like announcing a PS5 that is BC with PS4 and superior to PS4 Pro would reall really piss off people who bought a PS4 Pro, already considering that a lot of people were angry that a PS4 Pro existed at all, very few games actually used it, and it took older games and made them run worse.

I wouldn't hedge bets on a PS5 announcement in 2018, and if they announce it in 2019 which I feel is likely, it'd be completely bizarre for it to release on the same year.

And if a PS5 is really just a PS4 Pro Plus, they'd be caught in a lie about how they weren't planning on turning their console business model into a smartphone business model.

IMO, if consoles are going to survive the future, they need to become semi modular like PCs.

Sell a "PlayStation Foundation" where you can detach the GPU component and buy a better one. With limited offerings, GPUs can simply have their naming scheme adjusted for requirements. "Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, etc"

Then games can say "Requires Tier 2 or better graphics, or Tier 3 for 4k."

I feel like this could end up pissing a lot of people off if not done 100% right.

Maybe something more like the N64 expansion pack along with some different add ons that don't effect the ability to play games.
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itachi15243 posted...

I feel like this could end up pissing a lot of people off if not done 100% right.

Maybe something more like the N64 expansion pack along with some different add ons that don't effect the ability to play games.

People will bitch and complain anyway so you may as well ensure your product has the best chance for success in the future. Consoles are stuck in the past.

It could introduce a totally new type of dynamic where you swap gpus with a friend casually so you can play that shiny new release without having to to upgrade. You can trade in an older GPU for a new one (there is no explicit 2nd hand market for PC parts. Everyone resells their own shit. You can't trade in a GPU at places like Best Buy.) and pay only a little to upgrade. Consoles keep longevity better.
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How does this man still have a job? He's wrong about almost every prediction he has ever made about games and the times he gets it right I chalk up to "a broken clock is right twice a day."
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ChromaticAngel posted...

itachi15243 posted...

I feel like this could end up pissing a lot of people off if not done 100% right.

Maybe something more like the N64 expansion pack along with some different add ons that don't effect the ability to play games.

People will bitch and complain anyway so you may as well ensure your product has the best chance for success in the future. Consoles are stuck in the past.

It could introduce a totally new type of dynamic where you swap gpus with a friend casually so you can play that shiny new release without having to to upgrade. You can trade in an older GPU for a new one (there is no explicit 2nd hand market for PC parts. Everyone resells their own shit. You can't trade in a GPU at places like Best Buy.) and pay only a little to upgrade. Consoles keep longevity better.

I understand what you're getting at, and I think if done right, it could be be good. Just that if it ended with too many options, people would get annoyed or frustrated and just buy something else.

Plus, I feel like a lot of devs wouldn't want to go too far from the base tier, to ensure the most sales anyways.

I mean maybe if it was a two, maybe 3 tier system, and after that they had upgrades for speed and graphics that wouldn't be necessary to actually play games.
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King Rial posted...

Scorsese2002 posted...

Pachter

I can't think of a single thing he predicted that was accurate. Unless it is already announced, Patcher gets pretty much everything wrong. I honestly don't see how he still had a job.

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PS4 came out like in 2014 or something?

Sounds about right.
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please happen so it kills console gaming and everything goes on the pc
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Yeah I don't see that happening.
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Lol how did I know it would be Michael Pachter...
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TendoDRM posted...

Lol how did I know it would be Michael Pachter...

The only difference between Michael Pachter and everyone else with an outlet like this is that his job title says "Analyst" instead of "Journalist"
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I hope not. This gen has been a disappointment so far.
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I still think yearly, mobile-phone style incremental upgrades are a better path forward for the console market than trying to bring in GPU "modules", if only because I have zero faith in Sony(or MS for that matter) being able to design, implement and market them effectively to a consumer base who doesnt want to fiddle with anything.
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They rushed the current generation out to meet the 6-8 year time line consoles follow which is why we got these "mid-point" upgrades so 2019 or 2020 is actually perfect and will happen for the PS5.

megamanfreakXD posted...

please happen so it kills console gaming and everything goes on the pc

Yeah, so it can ruin gaming for non-PC playes
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Scorsese2002 posted...

Yeah, so it can ruin gaming for non-PC playes

too late
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halomonkey1_3_5 posted...

I still think yearly, mobile-phone style incremental upgrades are a better path forward for the console market than trying to bring in GPU "modules", if only because I have zero faith in Sony(or MS for that matter) being able to design, implement and market them effectively to a consumer base who doesnt want to fiddle with anything.

The idea is you'd use a proprietary connector to make changing GPUs as easy as plugging an action replay in and out.

Kind of like how some laptops have proprietary connectors on the bottom for docking stations that provide additional ports and shit.
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The PS3/360 generation was decently more powerful than the PS/GC/Xbox/Dreamcast generation, and the PS4/XBO/Switch generation is slightly more powerful than the last generation

The next generation, especially if starts in the next 5 years, is going to be basically the same thing as this generation
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Scorsese2002 posted...

Michael Pachter

in the trash it goes
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ChromaticAngel posted...

if they announce it in 2019 which I feel is likely, it'd be completely bizarre for it to release on the same year.

which admittedly they did do with the ps4
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prince_leo posted...

ChromaticAngel posted...

if they announce it in 2019 which I feel is likely, it'd be completely bizarre for it to release on the same year.

which admittedly they did do with the ps4

well they announced it at the very beginning of the year and released it at the very end of the year, AND there was tons of engineering leaks and job postings that hinted there was going to be another console in 2012 back when it was being called Project Orbis.
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legendarylemur posted...

Outside of lolPachter, why would Sony even release the PS4 Pro, a redesign that's stronger than the current PS4, and then just overshadow it a little over a year later?

2019 isn't a little over a year later. ps4 pro came out last year.
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ChromaticAngel posted...

The idea is you'd use a proprietary connector to make changing GPUs as easy as plugging an action replay in and out.

Kind of like how some laptops have proprietary connectors on the bottom for docking stations that provide additional ports and shit.

I just dont trust console makers to actually make them that easy while also keeping them price-competitive and communicating their purpose to console gamers

it also raises some issues on what to do with CPUs, RAM, etc since eventually that stuff needs upgrading too(but if you make the whole thing modular, you now have a shitty PC instead of a console). Yearly refreshes would smooth that out by gradually adding better core hardware as time goes on, but also has its own drawbacks(like being more expensive individual upgrades, and likely requiring the concept of "generations" to die off).

Although I guess I dont really trust console makers to do either strategy right. I'd just rather(personally) see consoles slowly march forward rather than suddenly lurch forward once every couple years then stagnate.
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halomonkey1_3_5 posted...

it also raises some issues on what to do with CPUs, RAM, etc since eventually that stuff needs upgrading too

CPUs are the component least likely to need upgrades. When it comes to gaming consoles, a dedicated machine that does nothing but games doesn't really need that much memory so something like 8 gigs would last far longer in a console than a PC. Of course, a theoretical PS5 would want to have 12 or 16 gigs.
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sylverlolol posted...

Analysts first said 2018. Now they said 2019. Suffice it to say...doesn't mean shit until you hear it directly from Sony.

I remember this too.
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ok
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