Current Events > Political futures market now has Trump impeachment odds at 18% for 2017

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The Admiral 05/31/17 2:50:00 PM #1:	https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5470#data This is also pre-Comey testifying. --- - The Admiral <cite>The Admiral posted [p:880152087] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote>https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5470#data This is also pre-Comey testifying.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
PrinceDBF 05/31/17 2:50:27 PM #2:	The Admiral posted... This is also pre-covfefe . --- hey! who's in charge here? <cite>PrinceDBF posted [p:880152122] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>The Admiral posted...</cite> <quote>This is also pre-covfefe .</quote></quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Nomadic View 05/31/17 2:51:36 PM #3:	Until something more substantial than somewhere someone may have heard something then said that something to someone who may have said something to washpo, there will be no impeachment. --- {}\\{}(o){}\\//{}//=\\{})){}(< \\//{}{{-{}//\\{} {}xxxxxxxx{};;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;> <cite>Nomadic View posted [p:880152203] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote>Until something more substantial than somewhere someone may have heard something then said that something to someone who may have said something to washpo, there will be no impeachment.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Anarchy_Juiblex 05/31/17 2:52:32 PM #4:	Bovada has him less than 50% on completing a full term. --- "Tolerance of intolerance is cowardice." ~ Ayaan Hirsi Ali <cite>Anarchy_Juiblex posted [p:880152269] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote>Bovada has him less than 50% on completing a full term.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Sanktu_Vyvorant 05/31/17 2:58:02 PM #5:	I though Luldmiral hated sites like these Or is that only when they post information that says the odds are against cuckservatives? --- "You know that NATO didn't exist before 9/11, right?" - Mal_Fet <cite>Sanktu_Vyvorant posted [p:880152574] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote>I though Luldmiral hated sites like these Or is that only when they post information that says the odds are against cuckservatives?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
The Admiral 05/31/17 3:00:15 PM #6:	Sanktu_Vyvorant posted... I though Luldmiral hated sites like these Sites like what? --- - The Admiral <cite>The Admiral posted [p:880152693] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>Sanktu_Vyvorant posted...</cite> <quote>I though Luldmiral hated sites like these</quote> Sites like what?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Giant_Aspirin 05/31/17 3:07:08 PM #7:	i've never heard of that site before. how do they make these predictions? i don't understand how someone can predict something like this. it's not like you can poll potential voters or anything. so unless they somehow have insight into the actual investigation, i fail to see how they can make any sort of 'prediction' on this? or is it more like Vegas betting where the odds are largely calculated based on how people are betting? --- Now Playing: Persona 5 (PS4), The Old Blood (PC) *(~);} - Get out the pans, don't just stand there dreamin' - {;(~)* <cite>Giant_Aspirin posted [p:880153137] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote>i've never heard of that site before. how do they make these predictions? i don't understand how someone can predict something like this. it's not like you can poll potential voters or anything. so unless they somehow have insight into the actual investigation, i fail to see how they can make any sort of 'prediction' on this? or is it more like Vegas betting where the odds are largely calculated based on how people are betting?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
J E S U S 05/31/17 3:11:07 PM #8:	What's the odds of Hillary still having a path to the presidency? --- imaginary <cite>J E S U S posted [p:880153354] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote>What's the odds of Hillary still having a path to the presidency?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Ampelas 05/31/17 3:12:27 PM #9:	Giant_Aspirin posted... or is it more like Vegas betting where the odds are largely calculated based on how people are betting? I'm guessing this. <cite>Ampelas posted [p:880153433] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>Giant_Aspirin posted...</cite> <quote>or is it more like Vegas betting where the odds are largely calculated based on how people are betting?</quote> I'm guessing this.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Doom_Art 05/31/17 3:13:54 PM #10:	Nomadic View posted... Until something more substantial than somewhere someone may have heard something then said that something to someone who may have said something to washpo, there will be no impeachment. I think you're playing it down a bit. --- Not removing this until Mega Man 64 is released on the Wii Virtual Console. Started on: 12/1/2009 http://i.imgur.com/mPvcy.png <cite>Doom_Art posted [p:880153515] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>Nomadic View posted...</cite> <quote>Until something more substantial than somewhere someone may have heard something then said that something to someone who may have said something to washpo, there will be no impeachment.</quote> I think you're playing it down a bit.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ProtoManSPx 05/31/17 3:16:38 PM #11:	I heard Trump was/is trying to get himself impeached. <cite>ProtoManSPx posted [p:880153684] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote>I heard Trump was/is trying to get himself impeached.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Ampelas 05/31/17 3:17:53 PM #12:	The Admiral posted... This is also pre-Comey testifying. Will be interesting to see how that number rises once Comey actually testifies that Trump did in fact ask him to end the investigation. <cite>Ampelas posted [p:880153753] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>The Admiral posted...</cite> <quote>This is also pre-Comey testifying.</quote> Will be interesting to see how that number rises once Comey actually testifies that Trump did in fact ask him to end the investigation.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
lightwarrior78 05/31/17 3:22:16 PM #13:	After next to no one thought he'd become president, I doubt the accuracy of any impeachment odds. --- http://backloggery.com/reddthesock <cite>lightwarrior78 posted [p:880153998] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote>After next to no one thought he'd become president, I doubt the accuracy of any impeachment odds.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
copout 05/31/17 3:26:16 PM #14:	The Republicans will never impeach Trump. It would turn their base against them. --- 11 year Memphis Grizzlies season ticket holder. <cite>copout posted [p:880154270] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote>The Republicans will never impeach Trump. It would turn their base against them.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
The Admiral 05/31/17 3:30:19 PM #15:	Went up to 19% since I made this post. --- - The Admiral <cite>The Admiral posted [p:880154530] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote>Went up to 19% since I made this post.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Giant_Aspirin 05/31/17 3:31:15 PM #16:	Giant_Aspirin posted... i've never heard of that site before. how do they make these predictions? i don't understand how someone can predict something like this. it's not like you can poll potential voters or anything. so unless they somehow have insight into the actual investigation, i fail to see how they can make any sort of 'prediction' on this? or is it more like Vegas betting where the odds are largely calculated based on how people are betting? --- Now Playing: Persona 5 (PS4), The Old Blood (PC) *(~);} - Get out the pans, don't just stand there dreamin' - {;(~)* <cite>Giant_Aspirin posted [p:880154591] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>Giant_Aspirin posted...</cite> <quote>i've never heard of that site before. how do they make these predictions? i don't understand how someone can predict something like this. it's not like you can poll potential voters or anything. so unless they somehow have insight into the actual investigation, i fail to see how they can make any sort of 'prediction' on this? or is it more like Vegas betting where the odds are largely calculated based on how people are betting?</quote></quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
TheVipaGTS 05/31/17 3:31:53 PM #17:	But at least the LIBERALS got got! <cite>TheVipaGTS posted [p:880154617] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote>But at least the LIBERALS got got!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
SquantoZ 05/31/17 3:31:54 PM #18:	PrinceDBF posted... The Admiral posted... This is also pre-covfefe . --- http://imgon.net/di-GSSE.gif http://i.imgur.com/FoV5u.gif <cite>SquantoZ posted [p:880154620] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>PrinceDBF posted...</cite> <quote><cite>The Admiral posted...</cite> <quote>This is also pre-covfefe .</quote></quote></quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Sanktu_Vyvorant 05/31/17 3:35:11 PM #19:	The Admiral posted... Sanktu_Vyvorant posted... I though Luldmiral hated sites like these Sites like what? Sites like these --- "You know that NATO didn't exist before 9/11, right?" - Mal_Fet <cite>Sanktu_Vyvorant posted [p:880154823] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>The Admiral posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Sanktu_Vyvorant posted...</cite> <quote>I though Luldmiral hated sites like these</quote> Sites like what?</quote> Sites like these</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Giant_Aspirin 05/31/17 3:36:30 PM #20:	Ampelas posted... Giant_Aspirin posted... or is it more like Vegas betting where the odds are largely calculated based on how people are betting? I'm guessing this. yup https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt#How_it_works this is completely non-scientific --- Now Playing: Persona 5 (PS4), The Old Blood (PC) *(~);} - Get out the pans, don't just stand there dreamin' - {;(~)* <cite>Giant_Aspirin posted [p:880154903] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>Ampelas posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Giant_Aspirin posted...</cite> <quote>or is it more like Vegas betting where the odds are largely calculated based on how people are betting?</quote> I'm guessing this.</quote> yup https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt#How_it_works this is completely non-scientific</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
bretonftw 05/31/17 3:41:03 PM #21:	Nomadic View posted... Until something more substantial than somewhere someone may have heard something then said that something to someone who may have said something to washpo, there will be no impeachment. They have Kislyav reporting on Kushner organizing a back-channel. It's over. --- "Christians cannot be violent, the new testament is completely against it" - darkphoenix181 <cite>bretonftw posted [p:880155165] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>Nomadic View posted...</cite> <quote>Until something more substantial than somewhere someone may have heard something then said that something to someone who may have said something to washpo, there will be no impeachment.</quote> They have Kislyav reporting on Kushner organizing a back-channel. It's over.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
The Admiral 05/31/17 3:42:03 PM #22:	Giant_Aspirin posted... Ampelas posted... Giant_Aspirin posted... or is it more like Vegas betting where the odds are largely calculated based on how people are betting? I'm guessing this. yup https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt#How_it_works this is completely non-scientific The financial markets are non-scientific also. These markets actually do a fairly good job of determining probabilities for binary events. --- - The Admiral <cite>The Admiral posted [p:880155241] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>Giant_Aspirin posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Ampelas posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Giant_Aspirin posted...</cite> <quote>or is it more like Vegas betting where the odds are largely calculated based on how people are betting?</quote> I'm guessing this.</quote> yup https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt#How_it_works this is completely non-scientific</quote> The financial markets are non-scientific also. These markets actually do a fairly good job of determining probabilities for binary events.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
MJ_Max 05/31/17 3:42:50 PM #23:	At 19% now <cite>MJ_Max posted [p:880155284] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote>At 19% now</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ThePrinceFish 05/31/17 3:42:59 PM #24:	lmao all the prophets on CE should dump their savings into this and make a killing since they are so super sure that impeachment is inevitable. --- Dielman on Rivers: "I've tried to get him to say s--- or f--- and all he'll ever do is say, 'Golly gee, I can't do that." <cite>ThePrinceFish posted [p:880155292] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote>lmao all the prophets on CE should dump their savings into this and make a killing since they are so super sure that impeachment is inevitable.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
JSancton 05/31/17 3:44:26 PM #25:	Is this the same stats people used to determine him losing the election? People have no right to use statistics sometimes --- PSN: JSancton <cite>JSancton posted [p:880155381] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote>Is this the same stats people used to determine him losing the election? People have no right to use statistics sometimes</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Polycosm 05/31/17 3:55:14 PM #26:	ThePrinceFish posted... lmao all the prophets on CE should dump their savings into this and make a killing since they are so super sure that impeachment is inevitable. Impeachment is inevitable. All signs point to a Democrat blowout in the 2018 midterm. They will easily gain control of the House and subsequently will impeach the President. Whether or not Trump is ultimately removed from office will depend on Republicans in the Senate. --- BKSheikah owned me so thoroughly in the 2017 guru contest, I'd swear he used the Lens of Truth to pick his bracket. (thengamer.com/guru) <cite>Polycosm posted [p:880156058] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>ThePrinceFish posted...</cite> <quote>lmao all the prophets on CE should dump their savings into this and make a killing since they are so super sure that impeachment is inevitable.</quote> Impeachment is inevitable. All signs point to a Democrat blowout in the 2018 midterm. They will easily gain control of the House and subsequently will impeach the President. Whether or not Trump is ultimately removed from office will depend on Republicans in the Senate.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Anarchy_Juiblex 05/31/17 3:55:30 PM #27:	JSancton posted... Is this the same stats people used to determine him losing the election? People have no right to use statistics sometimes Even if his chances were only 20%, that's still good odds to win. --- "Tolerance of intolerance is cowardice." ~ Ayaan Hirsi Ali <cite>Anarchy_Juiblex posted [p:880156080] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>JSancton posted...</cite> <quote>Is this the same stats people used to determine him losing the election? People have no right to use statistics sometimes</quote> Even if his chances were only 20%, that's still good odds to win.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
John_Galt 05/31/17 3:58:47 PM #28:	Polycosm posted... ThePrinceFish posted... lmao all the prophets on CE should dump their savings into this and make a killing since they are so super sure that impeachment is inevitable. All signs point to a Democrat blowout in the 2018 midterm. They will easily gain control of the House. Lol --- Who is John Galt? <cite>John_Galt posted [p:880156262] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>Polycosm posted...</cite> <quote><cite>ThePrinceFish posted...</cite> <quote>lmao all the prophets on CE should dump their savings into this and make a killing since they are so super sure that impeachment is inevitable.</quote> All signs point to a Democrat blowout in the 2018 midterm. They will easily gain control of the House.</quote> Lol</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
The Admiral 05/31/17 4:02:17 PM #29:	JSancton posted... Is this the same stats people used to determine him losing the election? People have no right to use statistics sometimes The futures market held pretty consistent that Trump had about a 1/3 chance of winning, even when garbage sites like 538 and HuffPo said his chances were 5% and 1%, respectively. --- - The Admiral <cite>The Admiral posted [p:880156483] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>JSancton posted...</cite> <quote>Is this the same stats people used to determine him losing the election? People have no right to use statistics sometimes</quote> The futures market held pretty consistent that Trump had about a 1/3 chance of winning, even when garbage sites like 538 and HuffPo said his chances were 5% and 1%, respectively.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Giant_Aspirin 05/31/17 4:04:39 PM #30:	The Admiral posted... JSancton posted... Is this the same stats people used to determine him losing the election? People have no right to use statistics sometimes The futures market held pretty consistent that Trump had about a 1/3 chance of winning, even when garbage sites like 538 and HuffPo said his chances were 5% and 1%, respectively. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ 28.6%, actually (which is close to 1/3, mind you). where in the world did you get 5% from? --- Now Playing: Persona 5 (PS4), The Old Blood (PC) *(~);} - Get out the pans, don't just stand there dreamin' - {;(~)* <cite>Giant_Aspirin posted [p:880156638] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>The Admiral posted...</cite> <quote><cite>JSancton posted...</cite> <quote>Is this the same stats people used to determine him losing the election? People have no right to use statistics sometimes</quote> The futures market held pretty consistent that Trump had about a 1/3 chance of winning, even when garbage sites like 538 and HuffPo said his chances were 5% and 1%, respectively.</quote> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ 28.6%, actually (which is close to 1/3, mind you). where in the world did you get 5% from?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
The Admiral 05/31/17 4:11:05 PM #31:	Giant_Aspirin posted... 28.6%, actually (which is close to 1/3, mind you). where in the world did you get 5% from? That was their futurecast prediction in late August. --- - The Admiral <cite>The Admiral posted [p:880157065] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>Giant_Aspirin posted...</cite> <quote> 28.6%, actually (which is close to 1/3, mind you). where in the world did you get 5% from?</quote> That was their futurecast prediction in late August.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Doom_Art 05/31/17 5:19:56 PM #32:	The Admiral posted... even when garbage sites like 538 >garbage >538 pick one The Admiral posted... That was their futurecast prediction in late August. It's almost as though the dynamic of the election changed over the next several months --- Not removing this until Mega Man 64 is released on the Wii Virtual Console. Started on: 12/1/2009 http://i.imgur.com/mPvcy.png <cite>Doom_Art posted [p:880161204] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>The Admiral posted...</cite> <quote>even when garbage sites like 538</quote> >garbage >538 pick one <cite>The Admiral posted...</cite> <quote>That was their futurecast prediction in late August. </quote> It's almost as though the dynamic of the election changed over the next several months</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Iodine 05/31/17 5:22:27 PM #33:	I would put it lower than that. The only way the GOP led congress impeaches Trump is if he has a Sandusky-like scandal. --- In Belichick we Trust <cite>Iodine posted [p:880161380] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote>I would put it lower than that. The only way the GOP led congress impeaches Trump is if he has a Sandusky-like scandal.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
The Admiral 05/31/17 5:26:13 PM #34:	Iodine posted... I would put it lower than that. The only way the GOP led congress impeaches Trump is if he has a Sandusky-like scandal. Or if they think Trump is hurting their chances in 2018 and 2020 too severely. If Trump goes, the ticket is likely Pence/Ryan, with Ryan potentially being the presidential nominee in 2020. If that's a significantly stronger ticket, the Republicans might be on board with impeachment. --- - The Admiral <cite>The Admiral posted [p:880161656] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>Iodine posted...</cite> <quote>I would put it lower than that. The only way the GOP led congress impeaches Trump is if he has a Sandusky-like scandal.</quote> Or if they think Trump is hurting their chances in 2018 and 2020 too severely. If Trump goes, the ticket is likely Pence/Ryan, with Ryan potentially being the presidential nominee in 2020. If that's a significantly stronger ticket, the Republicans might be on board with impeachment.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
EverDownward 05/31/17 5:26:39 PM #35:	>using polls and percentages when every Trump supporter was condemning them prior to being elected Even I voted for Trump, but come the fuck on, now. --- http://i.imgur.com/DKNJbBm.jpg Official Praying Monk from the Sky Temple of the MKX boards <cite>EverDownward posted [p:880161684] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote>>using polls and percentages when every Trump supporter was condemning them prior to being elected Even I voted for Trump, but come the fuck on, now.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Doom_Art 05/31/17 5:33:17 PM #36:	Iodine posted... I would put it lower than that. The only way the GOP led congress impeaches Trump is if he has a Sandusky-like scandal. That's the rule for the GOP Only way they get taken down is if they're caught with a live boy or a dead girl. The Admiral posted... Or if they think Trump is hurting their chances in 2018 and 2020 too severely. If Trump goes, the ticket is likely Pence/Ryan, with Ryan potentially being the presidential nominee in 2020. If that's a significantly stronger ticket, the Republicans might be on board with impeachment. If he keeps this shit up then it's not going to matter if he's impeached or not. He will be facing a primary challenge in 2020 My logic there is no matter how unorthodox he may be, the GOP sticks with him in the hope that he can mobilize his base for them and will rubber stamp what they like There's been none of that so far and there's no indication that this will change. So their options in 2020 are either they stick with Trump, Washington stays dead, their agenda is stalled another 4 years, the left is further enraged/mobilized against them. Or a genuine Republican can at least toss out a hail mary to try to get a legitimate working GOP administration. --- Not removing this until Mega Man 64 is released on the Wii Virtual Console. Started on: 12/1/2009 http://i.imgur.com/mPvcy.png <cite>Doom_Art posted [p:880162106] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>Iodine posted...</cite> <quote>I would put it lower than that. The only way the GOP led congress impeaches Trump is if he has a Sandusky-like scandal.</quote> That's the rule for the GOP Only way they get taken down is if they're caught with a live boy or a dead girl. <cite>The Admiral posted...</cite> <quote>Or if they think Trump is hurting their chances in 2018 and 2020 too severely. If Trump goes, the ticket is likely Pence/Ryan, with Ryan potentially being the presidential nominee in 2020. If that's a significantly stronger ticket, the Republicans might be on board with impeachment. </quote> If he keeps this shit up then it's not going to matter if he's impeached or not. He will be facing a primary challenge in 2020 My logic there is no matter how unorthodox he may be, the GOP sticks with him in the hope that he can mobilize his base for them and will rubber stamp what they like There's been none of that so far and there's no indication that this will change. So their options in 2020 are either they stick with Trump, Washington stays dead, their agenda is stalled another 4 years, the left is further enraged/mobilized against them. Or a genuine Republican can at least toss out a hail mary to try to get a legitimate working GOP administration.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Nomadic View 05/31/17 7:33:48 PM #37:	Doom_Art posted... Nomadic View posted... Until something more substantial than somewhere someone may have heard something then said that something to someone who may have said something to washpo, there will be no impeachment. I think you're playing it down a bit. Anonymous sources are ok to break a story, however after a few weeks real evidence needs to come forward if they plan on spending the majority of their resources shouting this story. It's fine with me if this is the tactic they're using, it'll fizzle out and their credibility will only further diminish. --- {}\\{}(o){}\\//{}//=\\{})){}(< \\//{}{{-{}//\\{} {}xxxxxxxx{};;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;> <cite>Nomadic View posted [p:880169034] in Political ... [t:75406670]...</cite> <quote><cite>Doom_Art posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Nomadic View posted...</cite> <quote>Until something more substantial than somewhere someone may have heard something then said that something to someone who may have said something to washpo, there will be no impeachment.</quote> I think you're playing it down a bit.</quote> Anonymous sources are ok to break a story, however after a few weeks real evidence needs to come forward if they plan on spending the majority of their resources shouting this story. It's fine with me if this is the tactic they're using, it'll fizzle out and their credibility will only further diminish.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Current Events > Political futures market now has Trump impeachment odds at 18% for 2017 (+) Yeah! (+)

Current Events > Political futures market now has Trump impeachment odds at 18% for 2017