Board 8 > SillyCon Valley Vulture Capitalists: "MOBILE GAEMS R DYSRUPTING TEH INDUSTRY!!1"

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iGenesis
04/13/12 8:45:00 PM
#1:


Angry Birds:
~50 million paid downloads at $0.99/dl
~500 million free downloads

Revenue (per Economics 101) = price * quantity
= $0.99 * 50M + $0.00 * 500M
= about $50 million

Super Mario (mainline platformers only; excludes derivatives):
~300 million purchases @ avg. $40/game

Revenue = price * quantity
= $40 * 300M
= about $12 billion

and Miyamoto is actually jealous of Angry Birds! ROFL! He's lost his mind.
http://escapistmagazine.com/news/view/116770-Miyamoto-I-Wish-I-Made-Angry-Birds

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SmartMuffin
04/13/12 8:50:00 PM
#2:


You seem to be forgetting a major component of profit calculation...

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OlDirtyNumbers
04/13/12 8:51:00 PM
#3:


please don't do this smartmuffin.

it is below you. and everyone else, ever.

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red sox 777
04/13/12 8:58:00 PM
#4:


How about comparing Angry Birds against one of the Mario games, instead of a series with hundreds of titles over 30 years? Or alternatively, let's figure the Angry Birds people will make a new game with similar sales every year for the next 3 decades.

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iGenesis
04/13/12 8:58:00 PM
#5:


I never mentioned the word "profit" once in my post. (Reading comprehension?)

Anyway, if you were to factor in dev costs, take a look at AB's credits. It's not much smaller than a handheld Mario's dev team.

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iGenesis
04/13/12 9:00:00 PM
#6:


From: red sox 777 | #004
How about comparing Angry Birds against one of the Mario games, instead of a series with hundreds of titles over 30 years? Or alternatively, let's figure the Angry Birds people will make a new game with similar sales every year for the next 3 decades.


Ok.

New Super Mario Bros. Wii
25M copies * $50/copy = $1.25 billion in sales revenue

EDIT: And Rovio's quoted Angry Birds figure includes all titles (Rio, Seasons, etc.) and all ports (iOS, Android, PC, Mac OS, Kindle Fire, etc. etc)

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Pokalicious
04/13/12 9:05:00 PM
#7:


iGenesis
iGenesis
iGenesis
iGenesis
iGenesis

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red sox 777
04/13/12 9:09:00 PM
#8:


To give you a more serious answer:

First, Angry Birds cost a lot less to make than NSMB Wii. With the manpower/capital needed to make that game, Rovio could make several Angry Birds type games.

Second, the threat to gaming from these types of mobile games is mostly toward the kinds of games Nintendo made popular with the Wii- Wii Sports, Wii Fit, etc. Actually, Nintendo probably created this industry with their success with the Wii- and now it's beginning to be turned against them.

Third, the threat is much bigger in the minds of Wall Street people than it actually is in reality. Remember Apple is the latest big thing in the stock market, that has gone up and up and up, and is now the biggest company by market cap in the world. Meanwhile Sony and Nintendo are losing money, in large part because we're at the end of a cycle and they need new systems to be released. Wall Street will see Apple (and any associated companies) as a bigger threat to gaming companies than it is. Facebook is big too- and at least until Wall Street can actually buy FB stock, it's sort of using related companies as a proxy. Does anyone really believe Zynga is worth $8 billion dollars? I doubt very many do, but it's the next best thing to Facebook if you want to buy FB stock for another month.

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red sox 777
04/13/12 9:10:00 PM
#9:


And I know you're trolling, but this is somewhat better than your usual troll topic, which are among the worst troll topics here, and was interesting enough to get a quick response.

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iGenesis
04/14/12 4:18:00 AM
#10:


From: red sox 777 | #008
Second, the threat to gaming from these types of mobile games is mostly toward the kinds of games Nintendo made popular with the Wii- Wii Sports, Wii Fit, etc. Actually, Nintendo probably created this industry with their success with the Wii- and now it's beginning to be turned against them.


Right, because Wii Fit, Wii Sports and motion controls can be SO easily replicated on an iPhone. I'm sure all those grandmas would readily abandon their Wii Fit exercise routines to play Draw Something instead.

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iGenesis
04/14/12 8:31:00 PM
#11:


From: red sox 777 | #008
First, Angry Birds cost a lot less to make than NSMB Wii. With the manpower/capital needed to make that game, Rovio could make several Angry Birds type games.


I used to think so, but after seeing the dramatic growth in Rovio's headcount since their vulture capital infusion last year, They've hired actual composers for their Angry Birds theme song variations and chefs for their cookbook. They're being anything but conservative with their spending (and you would too, if you're a startup that landed a $42M A round and is still growing exponentially)

Heck, look at how many people are listed in AB Space's credits...or even AB Classic's. It's unbelievable how such a simple game would require so many employees, but apparently it does! And the more jobs the merrier, right?

Remember that the entire executive team at Rovio everything on the Angry Birds brand. They're going to milk the s*** out of it, instead of diversifying. So it's a safe bet that almost every Rovio employee is working on Angry Birds instead of a different series.

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red sox 777
04/14/12 11:44:00 PM
#12:


You're obviously trolling, but how are these vulture capitalists? They're anything but, because they're actually investing in Rovio's growth. And if they are, they're terrible vultures for giving so much money for Rovio to spend on its employees.

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iGenesis
04/14/12 11:54:00 PM
#13:


From: red sox 777 | #012
You're obviously trolling, but how are these vulture capitalists? They're anything but, because they're actually investing in Rovio's growth. And if they are, they're terrible vultures for giving so much money for Rovio to spend on its employees.


If I recall correctly (and I may not be) the $42M round led by Accel Partners was an unsolicited investment. If it weren't for this infusion of cash, the entire Angry Birds fad would have arguably run its course within a year's time. The reason being that Rovio would have had to live within their means, and there aren't enough profits to be derived from 99 cent apps to go on massive hiring sprees. After Accel's investment, now you have a stupid, never-ending fad milked to hell and back with merchandise, cookbooks, amusement park attractions, a cartoon series in the works, etc etc etc... all over a shallow 5-minute Crush the Castle imitation. And the only groups of people to benefit financially are the ~80 or so Rovio employees and ~20 or so Accel partners.

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red sox 777
04/14/12 11:59:00 PM
#14:


Accel's investment was a huge success then. That's exactly what venture capital is supposed to do.

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iGenesis
04/15/12 12:54:00 AM
#15:


From: red sox 777 | #014
Accel's investment was a huge success then. That's exactly what venture capital is supposed to do.


If you or any of your family members/acquaintances lost money in the first internet bubble, you have them to thank.

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Justin_Crossing
04/15/12 12:58:00 AM
#16:


instagram got bought for $1B

explain how that works with your idea of revenue

for a free app

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AdditionalPylon
04/15/12 1:23:00 AM
#17:


This topic gave me a headache. So, I guess job well done.
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#18
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red sox 777
04/15/12 1:46:00 AM
#19:


If you or any of your family members/acquaintances lost money in the first internet bubble, you have them to thank.

My parents work in technology, so some of their acquaintances lost money in the internet bubble. Some of their other acquaintances struck it rich. It's all about the timing (if you got out from mid-1999 through early 2000 you did very very well). In general, tech employees did pretty well. Even if you didn't have to sense to sell your stock options before the bubble burst, you can't lose money you never had in the first place. If you were rich on paper for a few months, it's no bigger a loss than the gain you got from the bubble.

Stupid people lost their money to smarter people, basically. And we got loads of new, wonderful, technology out of it. That's wonderful to me.

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red sox 777
04/15/12 1:49:00 AM
#20:


Venture capital is really the farthest thing from vulture capitalism. Vulture capitalism is the stuff Bain Capital does- buy out unprofitable companies, then tear them apart and sell the pieces for more than the whole. Or alternatively, what Goldman Sachs does. VC is actually.....productive!

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red sox 777
04/15/12 1:53:00 AM
#21:


$1B seems high for Instagram. As I recall, Google only paid that much for as big a site as Youtube. Of course, I guess it's much easier to avoid losing money with Instagram- video streaming is really expensive, and Youtube lost money for many years.

Eh, don't be too surprised if Facebook's market cap goes to 200B, 300B+ even, before the end of the year.

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