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FFDragon 02/26/12 9:00:00 PM #201: |
Are games that end in implosion (like 24) just counted as ties?
And replacing in carries the same weight as if you were there from the start? -- If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE] http://img.imgcake.com/finegifdy.gif ... Copied to Clipboard!
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CherryCokes 02/26/12 9:04:00 PM #202: |
From: FFDragon | #200 Yes and yes. Though we do have the means to change the latter as needed. -- 2010 Boardy Winner for Mafia Host of the Year ... Copied to Clipboard!
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CherryCokes 02/26/12 9:06:00 PM #203: |
Additional thoughts on that formula is that SK victories should be weighted more than Town victories which should probably be weighted heavier than Mafia Victories
But I'm not sure we can do that -- http://i.imgur.com/u4tZA.gif ... Copied to Clipboard!
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VeryInsane 02/26/12 9:06:00 PM #204: |
Argh my winning percentage. @_@
Doesn't help that I'm at a 13/14 game losing streak as town. >_> Only game I really take a loss for during that stretch is Killer 7 though (So close, yet didn't bite the bullet in the end). Every other game town lost for other reasons besides me. -- You know what they say: You can't teach an Old Website New Tricks. However, SuperNiceDog learned some new tricks and won a Guru Bracket! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Fett0001 02/26/12 11:49:00 PM #205: |
From: CherryCokes | #204 I don't have that information easily accessible. It could be done, but not really worth the amount of effort required. -- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Fett0001 02/26/12 11:59:00 PM #206: |
60.71% Shad
60.53% FFDragon 55.36% Alec 52.94% sonten/HBJ 52.50% Zhang/Biscuit 51.67% KBM 50.00% Atma 50.00% ScorpionX3 50.00% SD 48.91% Aecioo 48.44% Ashe 48.08% masterplum 48.00% Cokes 47.06% Merc/AK 46.93% Sir Chris 46.67% Oddity 46.43% Delseban 46.30% Blade/Meow1000 46.00% MrSmartGuy 45.31% Ed Bellis 45.31% Tirofog 44.44% htaeD 44.00% Han 43.65% Dowolf 43.33% Regaro 42.97% Mysterious Stan 42.65% Tom Bombadil 42.27% Fett 42.00% Forceful Dragon 41.96% Drakeryn 41.45% Justin_Crossing 40.97% Spiral 40.91% Random_Guy_42 39.47% dinobot19 39.13% Articuno2001 37.70% Boko 37.50% Peaf 36.84% Bones 36.00% Bakusai 35.29% red13n 35.00% jdizzy156 34.85% Ulti 34.21% neon 32.58% Luis_Sera89 31.94% Sceptile 29.55% Kanzaris 27.78% GDiffuser 26.79% Wigs 25.86% ScareChan 25.00% Sbell 23.68% VeryInsane 23.08% Rusty 22.62% WalrusJump 19.23% EAEdwards 15.79% Alloy 13.89% TVontheRadio 10.00% Revenus Updated to reflect new information. Also, ulti, if you didn't have 4 modkills, you'd be ranked much higher. Above Chris, with 46.97%. You have twice as many as the next guy. -- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Fett0001 02/27/12 12:08:00 AM #207: |
Oddities:
Boko has 6 ties! Only 2 players have more than one MK. Ulti and Revenus. Spiral has more Wins, Losses, Games Played, and Times town than anyone else. By far. all without ever being modkilled or replaced. Go Spiral! -- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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MajinZidane 02/27/12 12:32:00 AM #208: |
my modkills and replaces are so lame, i hope you aren't counting them.
-- Virtue - "You don't need a reason to Boko United." ... Copied to Clipboard!
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MajinZidane 02/27/12 12:33:00 AM #209: |
SUCK
ME OFF -- Virtue - "You don't need a reason to Boko United." ... Copied to Clipboard!
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XIII_rocks 02/27/12 1:12:00 AM #210: |
all without ever being modkilled
good lord, how? -- "I wish I was French." - blindhobo13 "I don't think you know what "French" means." - As I Desire ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Dark_Spiral 02/27/12 1:27:00 AM #211: |
I was modkilled in VN mafia if that counts. I didn't paraphrase my flavor like a college essay.
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SBell0105 02/27/12 3:37:00 AM #212: |
My hgr modkill better not count
-- (\__/) (='.'=] < http://img.imgcake.com/sbellcardjpgub.jpg ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Fett0001 02/27/12 8:00:00 AM #213: |
From: Dark_Spiral | #211 Is that not in the index? From: SBell0105 | #212 I think Cokes didn't count it, but i'll check. -- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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CherryCokes 02/27/12 8:14:00 AM #214: |
I think I left it as it was, since I didn't have a chance to talk to hgr about it
-- "Occulams razor says you are scum" - masterplum ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Fett0001 02/27/12 8:21:00 AM #215: |
From: SBell0105 | #212 From: CherryCokes | #214 Well then. When HGR gets talked, we'll update accordingly. -- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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masterplum 02/27/12 8:44:00 AM #216: |
From: Fett0001 | #206 Yay, 12th -- yE frE me Kweku Ananse Papa me:http://img235.imageshack.us/img235/1508/masterplumgm3.jpg ... Copied to Clipboard!
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BakusaiTenketsu 02/27/12 8:47:00 AM #217: |
I think the majority of the players on the low end typically play more town than scum games, which is why our % is lower (Town statistically does worse than Scum on B8).
-- http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/3156/couchpotatocat.gif http://cdn.jamesgunn.com/wp-content/uploads/Lollipop-Chainsaw-6.jpg ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Fett0001 02/27/12 8:52:00 AM #218: |
Pondering different Win/Loss formula:
FROM: Wins + Ties/2 - Modkills - Replaced Outs/4 / Wins + Losses + Ties TO (Wins + Ties/2 - Modkills) / (Wins + Losses + Ties + Replaced Outs/4 - Replaced Ins/4) OR (Wins + Ties/2 - Modkills - Replaced Outs/4 + Replaced Ins/4) / (Wins + Losses + Ties) --- "Losses" includes modkills. Wins/Losses/Ties include "replaced in"s, but not "replaced out"s. -- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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masterplum 02/27/12 8:56:00 AM #219: |
That gets weird when you have no replaced ins or replaced outs.
Are replace ins statistically more likely to win or lose? because if not I don't think you should affect those -- http://i.imgur.com/eqOQs.gif?tti http://i.imgur.com/uTK2o.jpg ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Fett0001 02/27/12 9:02:00 AM #220: |
From: BakusaiTenketsu | #217 Well, yes, somewhat. (Fett's Win%) =0.2949*(%Scum) + 0.2504 But it's poorly correlated: R^2 = ~.067 We need more players with more data points. -- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Fett0001 02/27/12 9:03:00 AM #221: |
From: masterplum | #219 Replace Ins help the host. A lot. In probably a similar manner to how inconvenienced a host is by having to replace someone. -- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Achromatic 02/27/12 9:09:00 AM #222: |
Fett's system is dumb and biased and my system would be better.
sir chris # 1 all hail. -- Ngirl is a toll bridge - Wigs Gotta pay if you want to come inside! - Ngirl ... Copied to Clipboard!
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X_Dante_X 02/27/12 9:10:00 AM #223: |
I have a quick modification to that, chris
Sir Chris #1 Everyone else #who cares -- boring and mundane signature congratulating SuperNiceDog Now with more bold! Less Italics due to bold ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Hrezs 02/27/12 9:11:00 AM #224: |
+replace outs -replace ins
Replacing out is bad, in is good, also you have less of an impact on a game that you replace into than a normal game -- PhoneYoshi ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Fett0001 02/27/12 9:12:00 AM #225: |
From: Achromatic | #222 Win more. -- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Achromatic 02/27/12 9:15:00 AM #226: |
From: Fett0001 | #225 Can't carry much harder than I did in Touhou tbqh. -- "intention doesn't matter? clearly your cashier degree did not require a law course." - ND to Joyrock on the legality of drinking a soda before paying ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Fett0001 02/27/12 9:34:00 AM #227: |
I'll give you that. But you're still a 50% player, even with that.
-- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Achromatic 02/27/12 9:36:00 AM #228: |
How about Starcraft where I died night 1 after replacing - never saying a word.
and your replacement thing is dumb because I've been forced to replace a couple of times. Also you calling settlers mafia a tie is a travesty. -- Ngirl is a toll bridge - Wigs Gotta pay if you want to come inside! - Ngirl ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Fett0001 02/27/12 9:41:00 AM #229: |
From: Achromatic | #228 Everyone has games where it's not their fault for losing. And that's why I'm trying to implement a bonus for replacing in. -- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Fett0001 02/27/12 9:43:00 AM #230: |
From: Achromatic | #228 You didn't win. Take it up with whomever sabotaged the game. You calling Pissed Off Mafia a tie is worse. -- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Achromatic 02/27/12 9:47:00 AM #231: |
Players disobeyed a direct order from the host. They got modkilled for it.
A shame for them. Indeed I was well on my way to winning your game before someone intentionally made it so that I did not. It's like in wrestling when if someone interferes in favor of another that person is DQ'd and the other party wins via said DQ. Anyway the fact you are trying to give weights and bonuses for things just makes the system silly. Win % should just be that - win%. A flawed stat that everyone knows doesn't mean very much. To try to bring meaning to it to rank people is, as I have previously said, dumb. -- Ngirl is a toll bridge - Wigs Gotta pay if you want to come inside! - Ngirl ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Gatarix 02/27/12 9:50:00 AM #232: |
It's impossible to have win/loss statistics that accurately reflect skill levels. There are too many variables. A townie can win the game after doing nothing but lurking all game if his teammates carry him. A townie can lose after shooting half the scumteam dead.
Replacements are the same way. A guy can replace out halfway into day 1 because he suddenly decides he doesn't feel like playing mafia. Another guy can replace on day 5 after being instrumental in bringing down multiple enemy power roles. There's no real good way to weight it. So basically I'm saying numbers are shiny and fun but I wouldn't get hung up on them. TV is on the bottom of the list but I have respect for him when he brings his game -- more respect than for many others on the list. -- You put your RESOLVE HAT back on, which conveniently is the same hat as your NORMAL HAT. {Drakeryn} ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Luis_Sera89 02/27/12 9:53:00 AM #233: |
I thought the whole point of working out Win % was for fun. I mean, it's not like anyone's suggesting Shaduln was the best player ever.
-- "Eet's game time..." ... Copied to Clipboard!
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X_Dante_X 02/27/12 9:54:00 AM #234: |
So, I should stop rereading shads games religiously then?
-- boring and mundane signature congratulating SuperNiceDog Now with more bold! Less Italics due to bold ... Copied to Clipboard!
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FFDragon 02/27/12 9:55:00 AM #235: |
Luis_Sera89 posted...
I thought the whole point of working out Win % was for fun. I mean, it's not like anyone's suggesting Shaduln was the best player ever. Give me another game or two to remedy this. -- If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE] http://img.imgcake.com/finegifdy.gif ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Luis_Sera89 02/27/12 9:55:00 AM #236: |
I was surprised he'd played as many as 15 games!
-- "Eet's game time..." ... Copied to Clipboard!
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CherryCokes 02/27/12 9:57:00 AM #237: |
From: FFDragon | #235 you winning one or shad losing one would do it, I believe -- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSOC87NkmXc ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Fett0001 02/27/12 9:58:00 AM #238: |
It only matters because you think you deserve special treatment.
Also, lol comparing mafia to a scripted TV show. -- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Achromatic 02/27/12 10:05:00 AM #239: |
Two things. Of course I deserve special treatment. I am the best player on this board, I am the only reason mafia survived some of its worst times due to my endless promotion of it and showing new players how to actually be good at the game. You should bow before me and give me everything I ever ask for.
That being said, that hardly has anything to do with this. I like statistical data that is, you know, unbiased. Adding in weights yourself introduces bias. I know no matter how you twist the stats I won't have a very high winning %, which is fine the facts are what they are. I never said "you shouldn't count Starcraft against me" however when you, quite bratty, are like "herp derp you should win more" (as I imagine that's how it sounded to me when you said it) I am going to take exception, as if it somehow rests on me alone that my losses are what they are. All I want is a system that accurately reflect what it proposes. Your system does not. So suck it. -- Ngirl is a toll bridge - Wigs Gotta pay if you want to come inside! - Ngirl ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Sceptilesolarbeam 02/27/12 10:11:00 AM #240: |
What if you did something like, determined the general odds of winning as scum, as town, and as independent, got each player's success rate as that faction, and determined the average deviation?
-- "As the size of an explosion increases, the number of social situations it is incapable of solving approaches zero." -Vaarsuvius, Order of the Stick ... Copied to Clipboard!
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_Regaro_ 02/27/12 10:13:00 AM #241: |
From: Sceptilesolarbeam | #240 good luck with that even if you assume perfectly balanced games and every game having exactly one town/scum/indie faction, the odds of winning as Indie won't be 33% which throws a hell of a lot of guesswork in Unless you mean calculate it from the games we've already played? -- http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png http://img.imgcake.com/regthatchertabletpngyd.png ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Sceptilesolarbeam 02/27/12 10:13:00 AM #242: |
Yeah, that was badly worded, I just mean extrapolate it.
-- "As the size of an explosion increases, the number of social situations it is incapable of solving approaches zero." -Vaarsuvius, Order of the Stick ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Achromatic 02/27/12 10:14:00 AM #243: |
From: Sceptilesolarbeam | #240 That'd be a waste of time because there is really no good way of finding out a players ELO in this due to a number of factors. I like numbers when they are just for fun, and mostly raw. Raw numbers are fun stuff and I've always known my raw winning % wouldn't be that high. Totally fair stuff happens. But when I get called a "50%" player by a trash player like fett who barely tries half the time, I think I am going to take off my kid gloves. -- Behold the majesty that is Doom. Feast upon his greatness, and know you will never measure up. http://img.imgcake.com/Punny/scenemaybecompletepngre.png ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Fett0001 02/27/12 10:15:00 AM #244: |
From: Achromatic | #239 You think you do. All I want is a system that accurately reflect what it proposes. Your system does not. So suck it. So your problem is the arbitrary name I gave to it. -- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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_Regaro_ 02/27/12 10:15:00 AM #245: |
to be fair, in a "perfect" world, everybody would be 50% players, regardless of how good they were <_<
-- http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png http://img.imgcake.com/regthatchertabletpngyd.png ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Fett0001 02/27/12 10:17:00 AM #246: |
From: Achromatic | #243 26-28-3 You are a <50% player. My bad. -- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Achromatic 02/27/12 10:17:00 AM #247: |
I get special treatment every game I am in. The way I am treated in game is proof positive that I am the most respected, feared, and best player on the board. The proof is in the pudding as it were. But we can go into that more later.
As for your system you show your stupid bias when you cry about hosts being put out. No one cares about hosts being put out as a measure for how much a player wins. -- "intention doesn't matter? clearly your cashier degree did not require a law course." - ND to Joyrock on the legality of drinking a soda before paying ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Fett0001 02/27/12 10:18:00 AM #248: |
From: _Regaro_ | #245 that makes no sense, tbqh. It means that mafia's not a game of skill. -- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Achromatic 02/27/12 10:18:00 AM #249: |
From: Fett0001 | #246 I don't care what my record is fett, you are a trash player who feels the need to compile stats and set up archives because you want to be part of this community so bad but you'd be less than a foot note if we went off your actual track record as a player. So good job. -- "intention doesn't matter? clearly your cashier degree did not require a law course." - ND to Joyrock on the legality of drinking a soda before paying ... Copied to Clipboard!
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_Regaro_ 02/27/12 10:21:00 AM #250: |
From: Fett0001 | #248 In such a world, all games would be perfectly balanced and the randomizer would assign players such that all factions were of equal skill, as well as maintaining an even town/scum ratio per player Thus meaning that each side wins about half the time, and since each player plays town and scum equally half the time, it follows that each player wins about half the time -- http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png http://img.imgcake.com/regthatchertabletpngyd.png ... Copied to Clipboard!
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