Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1039

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_Regaro_
12/18/11 9:51:00 PM
#201:


is that what we call coming back with a vengeance

I count a 40-vote gain

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swirIdude
12/18/11 9:53:00 PM
#202:


Aeroblast!

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Surskit
12/18/11 9:53:00 PM
#203:


I'm starting to wonder how much the lack of bracket voting is helping Red/Blue.

EDIT: And by extension, how much it will hurt Mario/Bowser.

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machinegungeek
12/18/11 9:53:00 PM
#204:


Anyone else notice that Cloud/Seph's vote count is at 1997. Lolz. How fitting.
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Xuxon
12/18/11 9:54:00 PM
#205:


From: Surskit | #202
I'm starting to wonder how much the lack of bracket voting is helping Red/Blue.

EDIT: And by extension, how much it will hurt Mario/Bowser.


If people bracket voted Mario last round they did for Link as well.
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charmander6000
12/18/11 9:54:00 PM
#206:


A couple of updates ago Pokemon was at 2007, the year when it really started surprising us in contests.

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth
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SubDeity
12/18/11 9:57:00 PM
#207:


Any clue why there are so many brackets clustered at 136 points? That requires missing a certain combination of matches (I flubbed with Conker/Poo and Ramza/Delita in round 1, Chell in Round 2, and the Ninjas in 3) and it just seems odd that so many people would wind up in the exact same spot.

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-LusterSoldier-
12/18/11 9:57:00 PM
#208:


Bracket stats are still glitchy right now. You might have to refresh it several times to see the updated stats.

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pyresword
12/18/11 9:58:00 PM
#209:


Probably the guy with ~130 alt accounts that was on the leaderboard for a bit has 136 points.

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Emporer_Kazbar
12/18/11 9:59:00 PM
#210:


Do the contest stat counts outside of the top 50 count alts in their counts, or no?

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charmander6000
12/18/11 10:00:00 PM
#211:


Didn't think Link/Ganondorf would have such a low prediction percent.

Also new in the Top 10.

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict
1. Alucard/Dracula vs. Frog/Magus – Round 3 – 17.25%
2. Red/Blue vs. Samus Aran/Ridley – Round 4 – 30.21%
3. Frog/Magus vs. Chell/GlaDOS – Round 2 – 33.41%
4. Alucard/Dracula vs. Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth – Round 2 – 34.09%
5. Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy vs. Sora/Riku – Round 3 – 34.52%
6. Mega Man X/Zero vs. Sub-Zero/Scorpion – Round 3 – 34.75%
7. Big Boss/The Boss vs. Chris Redfield/Albert Wesker – Round 2 – 37.29%
8. Red/Blue vs. Ryu/Ken – Round 3 – 44.84%
9. Link/Ganondorf vs. Cloud Strife/Sephiroth – Round 5 – 53.72%
10. Samus Aran/Ridley vs. Big Boss/The Boss – Round 3 – 54.17%

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth
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XIII_rocks
12/18/11 10:01:00 PM
#212:


Eh, not so surprising. Cloud/Seph was a pretty solid pick logically.

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Haguile
12/18/11 10:03:00 PM
#213:


From: XIII_rocks | Posted: 12/19/2011 1:01:46 AM | #212
Eh, not so surprising. Cloud/Seph was a pretty solid pick logically.


But hasn't history taught us that Link always wins even when he has no logical reason to win?(I'M LOOKING AT YOU MAJORA'S MASK)

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-LusterSoldier-
12/18/11 10:04:00 PM
#214:


Compared to past contests, that's a very high prediction percentage for Link. Usually Link's prediction percentage is around 30-40% for the final match. Since this was a semifinal, there is a possible chance that Link's prediction percentage could still fall into the 30-40% range.

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_Regaro_
12/18/11 10:07:00 PM
#215:


[00:07:24] Regaro: This match
[00:07:26] Regaro: Is bollocks

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ExThaNemesis
12/18/11 10:08:00 PM
#216:


My god.

Cloud is done. Sephiroth is even more done. Sephiroth would probably lose to Samus now. This is a joke.

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XIII_rocks
12/18/11 10:08:00 PM
#217:


From: _Regaro_ | #215
[00:07:24] Regaro: This match
[00:07:26] Regaro: Is glorious



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vcharon
12/18/11 10:09:00 PM
#218:


It's sad how far the only guys that could beat Link have fallen. They've only fallen below more Nintendo, which have 0% chance of topping Link.

CONSPIRACYYYYY

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LeonhartFour
12/18/11 10:09:00 PM
#219:


Trainers have lost 3% since the freeze. We may indeed see a Cloud/Falcon-esque swing here, especially considering we have 24 hours.

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WarThaNemesis2
12/18/11 10:09:00 PM
#220:


Sephiroth was in trouble against Samus long before this result!

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_Regaro_
12/18/11 10:09:00 PM
#221:


From: XIII_rocks | #217


Well yeah that too

but nothing about it makes any sort of sense to me.

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_Regaro_
12/18/11 10:10:00 PM
#222:


From: LeonhartFour | #219
Trainers have lost 3% since the freeze. We may indeed see a Cloud/Falcon-esque swing here, especially considering we have 24 hours.


lost 3% but more important is the vote difference which has only gone up

It'll hit 1000 by 1:30 EST probably (what the hell am I thinking 1200)

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swirIdude
12/18/11 10:10:00 PM
#223:


It makes me happy to see Pokemon so powerful. I remember the painful days of Pikachu struggling with PaRappa and losing to Fox McCloud.

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KamikazePotato
12/18/11 10:10:00 PM
#224:


Following Red/Ocelot or Missingno/Seph trends, Trainers probably win easily.

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vcharon
12/18/11 10:11:00 PM
#225:


I'm pretty sure Pokemon has already been powerful before this; this is all FF7 being weak.

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charmander6000
12/18/11 10:12:00 PM
#226:


Come on trainers get to 1000 votes.

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth
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Zylo the wolf
12/18/11 10:13:00 PM
#227:


swirIdude posted...
It makes me happy to see Pokemon so powerful. I remember the painful days of Pikachu struggling with PaRappa and losing to Fox McCloud.

Yeah, and Crono + Mega Man were at least as strong as Mario. People had much better taste back then.

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-LusterSoldier-
12/18/11 10:14:00 PM
#228:


This match is going nearly even with yesterday's match in the votals so far, but it should fall behind yesterday's match soon because this one is on a weekday.

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vcharon
12/18/11 10:17:00 PM
#229:


The only good thing taste wise that has happened from the first contest is Snake has gotten stronger. Everything else is about Nintendo getting stronger and everyone else not being able to win matches.

Very ho hum type of contest here really, just reinforces the Nintendo dominance around here. I freely admit I voted for Link this contest, several times, but still.

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_Regaro_
12/18/11 10:17:00 PM
#230:


ok maybe I was a bit ambitious in thinking 1000 lead by 1:30


But this is looking damn good for the trainers.

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_Regaro_
12/18/11 10:18:00 PM
#231:


Also is Trainers > Mario possible in the X-Stats if this result holds and Link wins tomorrow?>

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LeonhartFour
12/18/11 10:19:00 PM
#232:


From: _Regaro_ | #231
Also is Trainers > Mario possible in the X-Stats if this result holds and Link wins tomorrow?>


Considering Mario already beat the Trainers?

Well, if you want to completely neglect that result and use this one instead, sure.

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Achromatic
12/18/11 10:19:00 PM
#233:


From: _Regaro_ | #231
Also is Trainers > Mario possible in the X-Stats if this result holds and Link wins tomorrow?>


You don't know how X-Stats work.

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charmander6000
12/18/11 10:20:00 PM
#234:


Also is Trainers > Mario possible in the X-Stats if this result holds and Link wins tomorrow?>

Nope unadjusted stats will not use this match and adjusted stats will just place Mario above trainers based on this match.

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth
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_Regaro_
12/18/11 10:21:00 PM
#235:


From: Achromatic | #233
You don't know how X-Stats work.


No I really don't.

From: LeonhartFour | #232
Well, if you want to completely neglect that result and use this one instead, sure.


I am running entirely off this
and

From: paulg235 | #001
~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA


This, using Link as the strongest character and just taking them both relative to him.

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PartOfYourWorld
12/18/11 10:21:00 PM
#236:


From: ExThaNemesis | #216
Sephiroth would probably lose to Samus now. This is a joke.


He could have easily lost to her two years ago. She put up almost as good a fight on Cloud as Snake did.

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th3l3fty
12/18/11 10:21:00 PM
#237:


yet another tiny cut

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_Regaro_
12/18/11 10:21:00 PM
#238:


From: charmander6000 | #234
Nope unadjusted stats will not use this match and adjusted stats will just place Mario above trainers based on this match.


Oh, that's disappointing.

Because goddamn that would've been fun to see.

On the other hand, so would the hypothetical Trainers outscoring Link on Cloud, but that's not happening

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Team Rocket Elite
12/18/11 10:22:00 PM
#239:


It is possible to have a chain of matches which would put Red/Blue over Mario if Red/Blue and Link/Ganondorf win by enough.

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JJH777
12/18/11 10:23:00 PM
#240:


Mario SFFs Link so badly that Trainers > Link/Gdorf

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LeonhartFour
12/18/11 10:24:00 PM
#241:


Well, this is the first time we've had a third-place match, but I'm not planning on favoring an indirect result over a direct result in my personal stats unless there's some reason to disregard the direct match.

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_Regaro_
12/18/11 10:25:00 PM
#242:


From: JJH777 | #240
Mario SFFs Link so badly that Trainers > Link/Gdorf


Leon's preliminary X-Stats based off the first five minutes of this match actually had that <_<

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-LusterSoldier-
12/18/11 10:25:00 PM
#243:


http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/rivals_battle_entry_final.html

The form is online. Looks like we can't decide what range we can use for the 10% and 5% options.

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th3l3fty
12/18/11 10:26:00 PM
#244:


that's pretty disappointing, honestly

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charmander6000
12/18/11 10:28:00 PM
#245:


Since I have no chance at winning I just bet enough points to defeat SBAllen should he get the 1% correct.

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth
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swirIdude
12/18/11 10:29:00 PM
#246:


But remember, the second tiebreaker is earliest submission time!

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_Regaro_
12/18/11 10:33:00 PM
#247:


800 votes huh


this is looking good enough for me to go to sleep

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CP724
12/18/11 10:37:00 PM
#248:


Suddenly Snake looks like ass.
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AlecTrevelyan006
12/18/11 10:38:00 PM
#249:


Hey Regaro, I think you were a bit optimistic about where the trainers would be at 1:30!

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ExThaNemesis
12/18/11 10:41:00 PM
#250:


Yeah I think this is the death knell for me caring about these contests ever again. Barring the chance to get Zack Ryder in, I'm done.

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