Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1039

(+) Yeah! (+)

Wow, I have three seperate alts with seperate brackets on the leaderboard. My main, and also AcidEnema and Richard__Sharpe.

My bad to anybody kept off by that!

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Chex Warrior (Chex Quest) for CB2011

So, are any perfects going to actually bite on Mario > Link?

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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IV (FF2US)
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3445328

Am I going insane, or are the trainers gaining in vote differential but losing percentage?

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http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png

huh, seven people banked

so just one perfect went with the upset

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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris

From: Not_Wylvane | #147
Looks like this is where Link/Dorf started slowing down their games last match.

It's actually following Link/Dorf trends pretty closely.

nah, Link didn't drop this much until like 2AM

Love the fact Hitmonlee is putting up dukes against Cloud

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Nice catch BlAcK TuRtLe.
But too bad your ass got SAAAAAAAAAAACKED.*tackles*

-LusterSoldier- posted...
The bracket and the stats for this contest haven't updated yet. Also, it still says "(1) Link vs. Ganondorf over (1) Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth (In Progress)" on my battle bracket page.

Yeah, I couldn't pick my characters for this battle.

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http://i56.tinypic.com/25stpxf.gif
http://www.glogster.com/media/1/2/42/74/2427453.jpg

Am I going insane, or are the trainers gaining in vote differential but losing percentage?

That's what happens when their current vote intake is still above 50% of the votes but before the total percentage of votes they currently have.

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Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place
Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place

I imagine the 7 that banked will be more likely to take a risk tomorrow.

Doubt those 7 would have banked without knowing about the "oracle-style" final battle pick.

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http://i48.tinypic.com/1045474.gif

So, based on the first five minutes, HERE IS WHAT YOU CAN EXPECT TO SEE TOMORROW FOR MARIO VS. LINK! Change your Oracles and Battle Challenges accordingly!

FINAL X-STATS!

Mario vs. Bowser – 50.00%
Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue – 44.36%
Link vs. Ganondorf – 43.39%
Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth – 36.22%
Ryu vs. Ken Masters – 35.45%
Samus Aran vs. Ridley – 34.98%
Mega Man X vs. Zero – 33.34%
Big Boss vs. The Boss – 32.55%
Sub-Zero vs. Scorpion – 31.54%
Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Dr. Robotnik – 29.42%
Chris Redfield vs. Albert Wesker – 28.26%
Solid Snake vs. Liquid Snake – 27.44%
Terra Branford vs. Kefka Palazzo – 27.43%
Tidus vs. Jecht – 26.28%
Fox McCloud vs. Wolf O’Donnell – 24.83%
Crono vs. Lavos – 22.63%
Donkey Kong vs. K. Rool – 22.40%
Kirby vs. Meta Knight – 22.24%
Mega Man vs. Dr. Wily – 21.47%
Jim Raynor vs. Sarah Kerrigan – 20.48%
Luigi vs. Waluigi – 19.55%
Ike vs. Black Knight – 19.53%
Frog vs. Magus – 19.44%
Yuna vs. Seymour Guado – 19.40%
Jill Valentine vs. Nemesis – 18.47%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze vs. Rodrigo Borgia – 17.83%
Pac-Man vs. Blinky – 17.76%
Cecil Harvey vs. Golbez – 17.49%
Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy – 17.28%
Sora vs. Riku – 17.03%
Lloyd Irving vs. Kratos Aurion – 16.92%
Leon Kennedy vs. Ada Wong – 16.89%
Phoenix Wright vs. Miles Edgeworth – 16.84%
Kratos vs. Zeus – 16.82%
Dante vs. Vergil – 16.75%
Raiden vs. Vamp – 15.95%
Conker vs. The Great Mighty Poo – 15.85%
Katherine vs. Catherine – 15.82%
Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh – 15.20%
Earthworm Jim vs. Queen Slug-for-a-Butt – 14.64%
Gordon Freeman vs. Dr. Breen – 14.63%
Zidane Tribal vs. Kuja – 14.55%
Ness vs. Giygas – 14.43%
Commander Shepard vs. Saren Arterius – 14.29%
Amaterasu vs. Orochi – 14.15%
William B.J. Blazkowicz vs. Adolf Hitler – 13.56%
The Kid vs. The Guy – 13.55%
Captain Falcon vs. Black Shadow – 13.04%
Ratchet vs. Dr. Nefarious – 13.02%
Crash Bandicoot vs. Dr. Neo Cortex – 12.96%
Arthas Menethil vs. Illidian – 12.76%
Dan Hibiki vs. Sagat – 11.75%
Vyse vs. Galcian – 11.70%
Siegfried Schtauffen vs. Nightmare – 11.49%
Guybrush Threepwood vs. LeChuck – 10.88%
Meat Boy vs. Dr. Fetus – 10.30%
Ramza Beoulve vs. Delita Hyral – 10.18%
Banjo vs. Gruntilda – 9.67%
Tom Nook vs. Crazy Redd – 9.31%
Laharl vs. Mid-Boss – 9.10%
Professor Layton vs. Don Paolo – 8.70%
Sol Badguy vs. Ky Kiske – 5.83%

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http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif
http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif

From: Team Rocket Elite | #158
Am I going insane, or are the trainers gaining in vote differential but losing percentage?

That's what happens when their current vote intake is still above 50% of the votes but before the total percentage of votes they currently have.

Ok

Because I saw people earlier in this very topic saying that the trainers were crashing

and I thought the lead was still increasing so I was like wut

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http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png

_Regaro_ posted...
Am I going insane, or are the trainers gaining in vote differential but losing percentage?

You may be going insane, but the rest of your statement holds true. It's entirely possible for them to keep gaining vote differential while losing percentage the entire time. Math is fun that way. For instance, if the final vote total were 22,700 to 22,000, the percentage would be 50.78 to 49.22. Larger vote differential, much smaller percentage differential.

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The fact that my story isn't plausible just proves that it's true.

gained almost nothing there

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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris

Because I saw people earlier in this very topic saying that the trainers were crashing

They are. The more your percentage intakes falls, the closer your opponent gets to making vote differential cuts.

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Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place
Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place

well if Cloud/Seph can stall the Trainers this early into the match, coming back from 500 or 600 votes isn't that hard

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http://i42.tinypic.com/11jol1t.gif
Oracle Challenge ~ Rank: 8th ~Today's prediction: Cloud / Seph - 51.18%

Yeah, Cloud/Sephy may not be done yet.

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http://i848.photobucket.com/albums/ab48/Leonhart4/Squall.jpg

trainers second in the stats? I'm OK with this!

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"To be fair to Herman Cain, we can't all be as wise as Slowking when he's wearing the Shellder of knowledge. Look it up, b****es." - Jon Stewart

Mario vs. Bowser – 50.00%
Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue – 44.36%
Link vs. Ganondorf – 43.39%

Glorious

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth

Hmm, Cloud/Seph might try to make a match of this.

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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)

Actually looking at the trends for the updates we have had so far and geolocation trends this match is similar to Linkdorf/Cloudroth. Let's see if this holds.

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Inter-planetary-mega-stellar-hydro-static.
There's no gravity between us. Our love is automatic.

Ryu/Ken > Samus/Ridley
Big Boss > Solid Snake

these are good stats

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"When I was a young man, I had liberty, but I did not see it. I had time, but I did not know it."

Quick someone compare this to Sephiroth/Missingno

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth

From: SabrielAbhorsen | #170
Actually looking at the trends for the updates we have had so far and geolocation trends this match is similar to Linkdorf/Cloudroth. Let's see if this holds.

No, it really isn't. Trainers have dropped over 2% from their peak already. Link didn't do that until more than 3 hours into the match.

hmm. Another big gain.

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http://www.funnycorner.net/funny-pictures/4834/big-boss.jpg

Xuxon posted...
From: SabrielAbhorsen | #170
Actually looking at the trends for the updates we have had so far and geolocation trends this match is similar to Linkdorf/Cloudroth. Let's see if this holds.
No, it really isn't. Trainers have dropped over 2% from their peak already. Link didn't do that until more than 3 hours into the match.

We'll see.

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Inter-planetary-mega-stellar-hydro-static.
There's no gravity between us. Our love is automatic.

From: charmander6000 | #172
Quick someone compare this to Sephiroth/Missingno

Red/Blue have a bigger lead 40 minutes into the poll than Missingno did. Sephy was at 52%

So this projects to an easy Trainers win still.

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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

Well, an easy Trainers lead after 12 hours anyway.

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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

While Cloud/Sephiroth should make some nice gains at night the trainers will have the day to increase and based on our old votes this is almost like a 1200 vote lead.

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth

We'll see? All I said was what has happened so far. For all I know it was a randomly weird start and the Trainers will stall at 57.5% for the next hour and a half.

So does somebody want to explain to me how Trainers getting 53% here projects Mario = Cloud?

No matter what the formula says, that's absurd.

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http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png

From: _Regaro_ | #180
So does somebody want to explain to me how Trainers getting 53% here projects Mario = Cloud?

No matter what the formula says, that's absurd.

What? If Trainers win here, transitive property puts Mario > Cloud.

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http://img.imgcake.com/nio/51alecpngpa.png -Nio

From: _Regaro_ | #180
So does somebody want to explain to me how Trainers getting 53% here projects Mario = Cloud?

No matter what the formula says, that's absurd.

It projects Mario = Link, not Cloud.

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http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png
http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png

So does somebody want to explain to me how Trainers getting 53% here projects Mario = Link?

Link got 58% on Cloud, Mario got 55% on Red therefore Red needs about 53% on Cloud for Mario to reach Link.

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth

From: AlecTrevelyan006 | #181
What? If Trainers win here, transitive property puts Mario > Cloud.

From: LeonhartFour | #182
It projects Mario = Link, not Cloud.

Yeah I'm a moron and meant to say that but typed without thinking <_<

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http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png

aaaaand we have a cut!

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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris

There's the first cut

night won't be pretty

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth

A cut already?

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http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/8516/whatisdesiresig.gif

oh %&*$

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Red vs. Blue what is even special about this. -ZFS
here's a guy that doesn't get it! No desire to be the very best! -SHINE GET 64

From: charmander6000 | #183
So does somebody want to explain to me how Trainers getting 53% here projects Mario = Link?

Link got 58% on Cloud, Mario got 55% on Red therefore Red needs about 53% on Cloud for Mario to reach Link.

Oh

It did end at 55%

Without checking I thought it ended at about 53% or so

Excellent job me <_<

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http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png

That was odd. Wasn't expecting a cut for a good while.

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Will not remove this line of my signature until the Seahawks, Jazz or Rockies win a title (Started 5-16-09)
This line reserved for the Guru winner (TBD)

whoa

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http://i42.tinypic.com/11jol1t.gif
Oracle Challenge ~ Rank: 8th ~Today's prediction: Cloud / Seph - 51.18%

Holy christ what on earth is happening

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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v712/ExTha/10and14.jpg
"I was wrong." - SmartMuffin

Mario/Bowser over Link/Ganon could be the best thing ever.

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"When I was a young man, I had liberty, but I did not see it. I had time, but I did not know it."

Mario/Bowser over Link/Ganon could be the best thing ever.

It will be the best thing ever.

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth

LOL x-stat projections from the first five minutes of a match with Pokémon in it? Might as well just set them 50-50 and post that.

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"Ovelia ... SPOILERS IN THE KEYWORDS WOOPS"
- Vormav

From: ZFS | #193
Mario/Bowser over Link/Ganon could be the best thing ever.

Yep. I really don't see any of the perfect battlers having the balls to pick it, it'd completely shake up the leaderboard...wouldn't save the contest but it'd be very awesome.

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http://i48.tinypic.com/1045474.gif

It might save the contest for me! Mario/Bowser is like a top 5 rivalry in this contest, and seeing Mario top ZELDA legitimately would be 'too good.'

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"When I was a young man, I had liberty, but I did not see it. I had time, but I did not know it."

From: IngmarBirdman | #195
LOL x-stat projections from the first five minutes of a match with Pokémon in it? Might as well just set them 50-50 and post that.

Well, it was just for laughs.

50/50 still projects out very well for Mario/Bowser, too, although it doesn't project a win.

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http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif

Score-Brackets-% Right
144----2------------50.00
143----5------------100.00
142----3------------100.00
141----2------------100.00
140----4------------100.00
139----11----------72.73
138----14----------92.86
137----6------------83.33
136----179--------98.88
135----33----------81.82
134----26----------92.31
133----34----------67.65
132----55----------83.64
131----100--------87.00
130----92----------84.78
129----102--------82.35
128----113--------78.76
127----119--------72.27
126----349--------89.97
125----167--------68.26
124----162--------75.93
123----191--------75.39
122----209--------73.68
121----218--------67.43
120----242--------69.83
119----298--------69.46
118----271--------69.00
117----290--------70.00
116----293--------64.51
115----326--------69.33
114----295--------64.41
113----317--------62.78
112----308--------64.29
111----362--------61.88
110----354--------65.25
109----332--------65.06
108----357--------64.99
107----327--------58.41
106----349--------63.04
105----328--------62.20
104----311--------61.09
103----336--------57.14
102----321--------55.76
101----293--------57.34
100----269--------59.85
99------226--------56.64
98------281--------51.60
97------231--------58.87
96------219--------56.62
95------222--------50.45
94------196--------48.98
93------198--------51.01
92------188--------48.40
91------197--------51.78
90------158--------49.37
89------172--------47.09
88------153--------49.67
87------144--------50.69
86------160--------45.63
85------159--------42.77
84------125--------40.80
83------141--------35.46
82------131--------41.98
81------137--------35.77
80------138--------38.41
79------136--------36.03
78------122--------36.89
77------132--------43.94
76------117--------34.19
75------128--------32.03
74------110--------31.82
73------106--------30.19
72------82----------28.05
71------83----------31.33
70------82----------35.37
69------87----------29.89
68------89----------22.47
67------90----------33.33
66------81----------27.16
65------86----------16.28
64------78----------25.64
63------72----------13.89
62------74----------17.57
61------78----------24.36
60------72----------26.39
59------67----------10.45
58------74----------14.86
57------48----------18.75
56------58----------8.62
55------61----------16.39
54------56----------14.29
53------57----------8.77
52------58----------12.07
51------53----------7.55
50------52----------11.54
49------48----------6.25
48------51----------17.65
47------43----------16.28
46------34----------2.94
45------39----------7.69
44------35----------5.71
43------35----------5.71
42------49----------6.12
41------39----------2.56

38------36----------5.56
37------24----------4.17
36------16----------6.25

15------2------------50.00

Cloud is nearly able to get Link's prediction percentage below 50 but isn't quite able to do it. The top of the standings were heavily in favour of Link winning. 87% of the top 47 get the match right. It isn't until the -16 (128 points) that the prediction precentage regularly falls below 80.

7 people fell off the Top 50 and 6 of them had Cloud/Sephiroth winning the contest. Former first place KingLionel, pjbasis, Jobi1, Hitagi, MachoManSavage, Zicore and Lonewolf00B did not have Link vs Ganondorf winning the match.

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Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place
Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place

I'm on the road to Viridian City

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth