creativename posted... Not_Wylvane posted... The majority of Batman's strength would be, surprise, from his games,
Not_sure_if_serious.gif O_o
Like less than 2% at most of Batman's strength would come from his games. Come on. Let's try to live in the real world here. Goodness gracious.
We still don't know this for sure though. This is a video game site and the contests have always been about video game characters. When people see Batman in the poll are they going to think about Batman the video game character or just Batman in general?
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My point is we don't really know how the populace of this site (a video game site) will react to non-VG characters. If we just polled the general public Batman would destroy Link, but things could be way different here.
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Not_Wylvane posted... Likewise, I don't think the Batman community cares about our contests.
"The Batman community"? Our website IS the Batman community. So is every other North American website. This isn't StarCraft we're talking about... it's the most universally recognized, universally popular character in modern media.
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SabrielAbhorsen | Posted 12/17/2011 10:09:50 PM | message detail | quote We still don't know this for sure though. This is a video game site and the contests have always been about video game characters. When people see Batman in the poll are they going to think about Batman the video game character or just Batman in general?
If the people on this site are only considering the games they are in, it would result in non-VG characters being weaker than expected. For non-VG characters to have significant strength on this site, they need to draw their strength from their video games and all other forms of media as well (such as comics, movies, and TV shows).
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Well it is no surprise that Link and Cloud always find a way to meet each other in a contest. They have been by far the most dominant forces of this contest and even historically. The main reason why this contest was made in this format was to give the illusion that Link can be defeated though to a lot of the board the gap between Link and Cloud won’t be covered with the addition of Sephiroth. Regardless of how the match turns out I feel this will probably be the closest encounter between Link and Cloud since a long time.
Outside of SFF matches and against weak characters which we’ve established that Cloud is inferior in blowing them out the only normal match Link has had was against Alucard and Dracula though that performance was worthy of a champion. While you could suggest that blowouts are easier to attain in this contest compare to last contest I do feel that this match demonstrated that Link and Ganondorf do get a rivalry boost, but it might not be as much as some people think as you look at Alucard and Dracula’s performance against Phoenix Wright and Frog over earlier rounds.
Cloud and Sephiroth also demonstrated champion-like performances against Kratos and Solid Snake. While the hype for God of War III may have died down since its release Kratos over Alucard is still a result that I feel is likely to happen. The only problem Kratos and Zeus may have in this format is that they are recent rivalries and those types of rivalries have performed rather poorly in this contest. However Kratos and Zeus is a more prominent rivalry within God of War compare to many of the new rivalries where most of them weren’t even rivalries. Cloud and Sephiroth showing no mercy to Solid Snake and Liquid Snake was also a great performance and while the performance may be dampen due to Snake losing some of his Brawl support since that rivalry doesn’t exist in that game the performance against the Snakes was still better had Snake not have any Brawl support and was around Mega Man’s strength.
In four-ways Link has gone up against Cloud and Sephiroth twice. Once during the Battle Royal where Link got more votes than Cloud and Sephiroth combined though that was just before the release of Twilight Princess and while Skyward Sword has been released for about a month now the hype for the game was nowhere near that of Twilight Princess. In the second match Cloud and Sephiroth defeated Link, however Samus was also in that poll. We also have to consider rivalry factor and while both have decent rivalries it is hard to decide which one has benefited more though for Cloud and Sephiroth to have a chance they would have to hope it is split or even slightly favouring them.
Despite being up against big Nintendo, Pokemon continued its trend of falling 5-6% after the start. Combine that with FFVII's early vote, and Pokemon can lead with like 57% early on and still conceivably lose. The facts that it's a meaningless match and no one seems to give half a crap about this contest should help FFVII in making such an enormous turnaround.
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There was quite a lot of backlash against Vader and the other non-video game characters in the gamespot contest because of a lot of voters thinking the contest was purely about their video game appearances. To get their full strength you would definitely need to make it clear that it's a fictional character contest rather than a "video game appearance" contest.
Link had 57.44% at the freeze last time. Anything under 55.5% would make me think they had a chance. Anything under 54% would make me think they had a good chance.
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And you are asking what I think would happen. You're asking me what I THINK Cloud/Seph need at the freeze to have a legit shot at winning, and I am saying that no amount they muster will make me believe they have any shot.
You can debate, that's what these topics are for. But you are stating a fact, that if the lead after 5 minutes they win the match. Basically committing that grand failure of the stats topic of calling a winner after 5 minutes. My opinion is that Link is too strong during the day and they will lose, even if they lead after 5 minutes.
Just a basic knowledge of trends would tell you that Cloud would absolutely win the match if he were leading at the freeze. He always ends several percent higher than what he has at the freeze against Link.
Literally every single time without fail.
It has never not been that way.
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Link needs to be at like... 53% or less to think Cloud and Seph have a shot. I think the early vote is going to go more Cloud/Seph than usual just because people are starting to fiend for an upset.
Then again, people are stupid so Cloud and Seph might be anti-voted due to always winning.
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From: vcharon | #123 You can debate, that's what these topics are for. But you are stating a fact, that if the lead after 5 minutes they win the match. Basically committing that grand failure of the stats topic of calling a winner after 5 minutes. My opinion is that Link is too strong during the day and they will lose, even if they lead after 5 minutes.
Here's the issue:
If Cloud/Sephiroth are winning after 5 minutes, they are going to have a ridiculous percentage on Link by the time the trends start favoring him again.
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Cloud would need a massive percentage at the freeze to make me think he had a chance. I'm pretty confident he's never beating Link again short of something huge like a FF7 remake, being put into the next Smash, starring in another movie and being part of Sora's main group in KH3 combined all being announced during a character battle.
That's because the majority of early voters always anti-vote Final Fantasy without fail and have for years. That'll never change, but even if it did this once it wouldn't impact Link still winning the rest of the day. Link could have easily always lost the early votes and still won in the end. Trends say he never will I know, but my example is just a "for instance".
I don't believe Cloud/Seph have any shot at this, so no 5 minute result is going to give me much hope. I'm still hoping it'll be under 60% and not really sure it will be.
From: vcharon | #128 That's because the majority of early voters always anti-vote Final Fantasy without fail and have for years. That'll never change, but even if it did this once it wouldn't impact Link still winning the rest of the day.
Except that's the point.
If Cloud/Sephiroth are weathering anti-votes to the point that they're actually WINNING after five minutes, then Link isn't winning.
Because Cloud/Sephiroth will rise several more percent before Link gets back into a favorable timeframe, and his day vote isn't that good, nor is FFVII's day vote that bad
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Well, one reason for Cloud and Seph to be winning at the freeze is their pairing is just plain stronger, meaning they'll win all the other blocks too, but there is something to be said for what vcharon's saying too-- I could certainly see Cloud and Seph winning the board vote by a bit and then losing if people were fiending for an upset that much but I don't see that happening.
Looking unlikely that they will be stronger at this point, but strangely, not because of their respective matches-- I don't think Cloud and Seph have looked much worse at all than Link-- but just the contest results as a whole.
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Also, clearly charon is assuming the Cloud/Seph win the freeze and then loses the power hour with his standard 45-47% and everything else continues as normal. Which makes zero sense whatsoever.
Like I said it could happen with a strong upset vote-- I kinda expect Cloud and Seph to drop from the freeze with the second update this time. (But still increase overall, meaning they'll still win if they're leading at the freeze) Maybe I'm overestimating how smart early voters are though.
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Yeah if you think the early voters are utterly stupid, which is fair, there is pretty much no reason to assume that Cloud and Sephiroth have any chance of choking it away if they're winning at the freeze.
I expect them to be at like... low 440s at the freeze, though (and end up 4th on the x-stats), so yeah, doesn't really help.
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From: Xuxon | #143 did you just say you expect Cloud/Seph to end up 4th in the stats? how is that even remotely possible with how Link is going to SFF Mario?
Probably cause Link won't be SFFing Mario.
Oh I went there.
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I don't think Mario/Bowser will get SFFed, and I think they're a stronger pairing than Cloud/Seph.
I don't think Super Mario Bros would've been SFFed by Legend of Zelda in the series contest either. Hell I think Link's ability to SFF Mario is exaggerated in the first place-- Link beats Mario by a boatload because he's a lot stronger for the most part, not due to huge amounts of SFF.
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