Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1006

(+) Yeah! (+)

I have Red/Blue winning that division and Luigi losing in the first round.

I even had Red/Blue > Samus/Ridley for some time.

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Currently Playing - StarCraft: Brood War

I agree Red/Blue.. but I still think they have a chance at Luigi, if only for the Nintendo SFF heirarchy. As weak as they may be, I think they definitely have a chance to benefit from not only the rivalry voters, but from being the sole Pokémon representatives in the bracket. Ryu/Ken should be out of their reach though.

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http://www.nbc.com/parks-and-recreation/exclusives/ron-dancing-animated.gif

I'm betting on fighting game rivalries bombing because...they don't sound like much of a rivalry to me, although I've never played any non-SSB fighting game so I guess I wouldn't know.

Well, at least it's been over six years since I played Soulcalibur II at my relatives' house.

Random trivia: Samus is in The Kid's game.

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Currently Playing - StarCraft: Brood War

Red/Blue's path comes down to whether or not they're seen as Pokémon Trainer Red and Pokémon Trainer Blue or "Pokémon RBY." Pokémon RBY could beat Samus. Trainer Red and Blue probably lose to Luigi.

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:/

UltimaterializerX posted...
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
Here's an interesting question. Who do you think is the most overrated duo contest-strength-wise? Red/Blue? Chell/GLaDOS? Or one of the duos that have a set path?

Phoenix Wright, no contest. This board picks him EVERY YEAR and he never even wins one round.

And I will be floored if Red/Blue beats Luigi. I thought about that match for maybe 3 seconds.

So you're picking Gordon to pull off the upset?

Gordon/Breen sounds like a rather horrible rivalry compared to Phoenix/Edgeworth.

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Currently Playing - StarCraft: Brood War

FateStayAlbion posted...
And 2010 Gordon gets 58.5% on 2010 Phoenix... I don't see where you're going.

I explicitly didn't use 2010 Gordon because he was overrated thanks to Tifa. We all remember that Tifa/Sephiroth match, right? The dodgy one? Yeah, that's why nobody takes Gordon's 2010 strength at face value. Try reading the rest of the post rather than just looking at the numbers, dude. I said already that the point was to compare Phoenix to his previous performance, how Gordon shapes up is an unknown as there are no reliable stats.

Anyway, as a general point, I think people are taking this as too much of a straight character battle. There are elements of the 1 on 1s here but I wouldn't depend on them too much. It is a rivalry contest after all, not a character battle, and I have faith in smart voterFAQs. Gordon might eat Phoenix 1 on 1, but do people really care enough about his rivalry with Breen (or Breen, for that matter)? Likewise, Luigi would beat Red pretty clearly, but coupled with Waluigi and a rivalry only evident from clothes, names, and a second of an intro video, I have a hard time picking that over the defining rivalry in gaming.

I suspect that one way or another, once the contest starts, either the people who put their stock in treating the matches like 1 on 1s or the people who put their stock in rivalries will abandon their brackets en masse. Thank god for the battle contest!

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Something something something
^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig

Is it wrong to assume that all Square entities (aside from the FFIX and CT guys) will get a boost from this contest theme? That's pretty much what I'm banking on (although I'm still not going to trust Tidus).

Okay, for those of you who have actually played through Half-Life 2 plus episodes, how many times during the whole "series" does Freeman (aka the player) meet with Dr. Breen? Does the player actually fight Breen at any point?

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Currently Playing - StarCraft: Brood War

once

and no

you see him through monitors the whole time except the end (which is why in my match pic I used a screenshot of him on the first monitor you see), and he taunts you and stuff. he's a great villain and really well acted, but you don't meet with him

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~Zen

Annoys me SO MUCH that Galcian is Vyse's rival instead of Ramirez. Even though they have no chance of winning, it still is a much better rivalry. Also annoyed it wasn't Sonic/Knuckles. They would have been a much stronger pair.

Anyway, as a general point, I think people are taking this as too much of a straight character battle. There are elements of the 1 on 1s here but I wouldn't depend on them too much. It is a rivalry contest after all, not a character battle, and I have faith in smart voterFAQs. Gordon might eat Phoenix 1 on 1, but do people really care enough about his rivalry with Breen (or Breen, for that matter)? Likewise, Luigi would beat Red pretty clearly, but coupled with Waluigi and a rivalry only evident from clothes, names, and a second of an intro video, I have a hard time picking that over the defining rivalry in gaming.

The problem with this thinking is the "smart voterFAQs". People from board 8 are the only ones who cares about contests. That's less than 10% of the people voting. The rest vote for their favorite characters. Rivalries won't mean a thing when they see Luigi Vs. Colors.

EDIT: Also, I accept that sig bet XIII.

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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename

I wouldn't call myself an expert on these contests, but I don't know why so many people are calling Big Boss/The Boss>Tidus/Jecht a lock.

The way I see it, after looking at stats and whatnot, they all seem nearly equal as individual characters, and Final Fantasy X>any Metal Gear as a game. Also, I've never played Metal Gear, but I would guess that Tidus/Jecht has at least as much to gain from the rivalry format as the bosses. To add to that, I would think that the inclusion of Jecht would get some of the Tidus-haters to vote for the pair anyways, although that may be completely false.

Not saying its a lock either way, but I have Tidus/Jecht in my bracket and I'm pretty confident in it.

Here, let me make logic simple.

"Would you take Big Boss over Sub-Zero?" - definite yes
"Would you take Jecht over Nathan Drake?" - debatable, leaning toward 'no'.

There, debate solved. The Bosses have just plain looked better since 2007 than the FFX dudes.

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How many points did Black Turtle win the guru by? Wow that's a lot, a lot!

XxSoulxX posted...
The problem with this thinking is the "smart voterFAQs". People from board 8 are the only ones who cares about contests. That's less than 10% of the people voting. The rest vote for their favorite characters. Rivalries won't mean a thing when they see Luigi Vs. Colors.


You're assuming this, right?
We've never had a contest like this before, and the contest clearly states to vote for your favorite rivalry.

Here's my theory on the voting demographic, making basic analogies to a presidential campaign, using Link/Ganon and Cloud/Seph as an example. Let's assume Republicans always vote Republican, and Democrats always vote Democrat.

- A person who has only played Zelda will likely be a Republican and will vote Link/Ganon.
- A person who's favorite game is Ocarina of Time will likely be a Republican, because they probably are also taking into account the Link/Ganon rivalry as a reason for OoT being their favorite.
- Even more likely, a person who's favorite character is Link will likely be Republican, because Link's adversary might be part of what they like about the character.

Because Republicans always vote Republicans, and vice versa, the rivalry format will not affect the outcome. Note, that they are still voting for their favorite rivalry, the results just aren't different from what we'd expect from a character battle.

However, we now introduce the Independents , who think neither Link nor Cloud are their favorite characters, Ocarina of Time or Final Fantasy VII are their favorite games, and have played both or neither.

The Independents will vote based on the rivalry they think is best. This chunk will decide who wins the Presidency in the end, and the crucial factor in these contests is figuring out how big these people are, and which way they'll vote. If you ask me, in this scenario, they will overwhelmly support Cloud and Sephiroth, making up for more than enough natural advantage Zelda has over FFVII.

EDITed for easier reading.

The Independents will vote based on the rivalry they think is best. This chunk will decide who wins the Presidency in the end, and the crucial factor in these contests is figuring out how big these people are, and which way they'll vote. If you ask me, in this scenario, they will overwhelmly support Cloud and Sephiroth, making up for more than enough natural advantage Zelda has over FFVII.

In order to believe this, you have to ignore all logic. People will see the characters they like and vote for them. Same as any other contest we've had in the past. The people on the fence, your "independents" if you like, won't go in depth about what rivalry is better. They'll find their favorite character of the bunch and vote for them (or anti-vote their most hated character). The same as any other contest. Throwing a sidekick/villain from the same game won't make a difference in this contest.

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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename

the only way for people to take rivalries into account is if they played both games, a pair could be a terrible rivalry, but if the voter hasn't played the other game and they like at least one of the characters they're going to vote for the terrible rivalry. We could see matches with a lot of overlap like Red/Blue vs. Luigi/Waluigi have more rivalry factor compare to PW/ME vs. Freeman/Breen since it is more likely for a person to have played Mario and Pokemon than Phoenix Wright and Half-Life.

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352

It's certainly a theory Soul, but since you aren't really providing any logic other than "they will vote based on character because they always have in character battles," I don't think you should really be telling me to ignore logic.

charmander6000 posted...
the only way for people to take rivalries into account is if they played both games, a pair could be a terrible rivalry, but if the voter hasn't played the other game and they like at least one of the characters they're going to vote for the terrible rivalry. We could see matches with a lot of overlap like Red/Blue vs. Luigi/Waluigi have more rivalry factor compare to PW/ME vs. Freeman/Breen since it is more likely for a person to have played Mario and Pokemon than Phoenix Wright and Half-Life.

I don't know if this is towards me, but I definitely took this into account. An Independent is someone who played both (or neither).

"Would you take Jecht over Nathan Drake?" - debatable, leaning toward 'no'.

Considering Jecht looks to be about as strong as Tidus, I highly doubt this.

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

In order to believe this, you have to ignore all logic. People will see the characters they like and vote for them. Same as any other contest we've had in the past. The people on the fence, your "independents" if you like, won't go in depth about what rivalry is better. They'll find their favorite character of the bunch and vote for them (or anti-vote their most hated character). The same as any other contest. Throwing a sidekick/villain from the same game won't make a difference in this contest.

Voters have proven time and time again in the past that they don't vote blindly, and they do take the situation into account. They'll vote for their favorite rivalry- of course in many cases that will be the same as the team with their favorite character. It's a subjective decision, but that doesn't mean that good rivalries won't get a boost. It really takes no effort at all. You don't have to justify your vote to anyone.

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90s games > 00s games

Even as someone that feels Jecht was overrated in the stats I would still take him over Nathan Drake.

I don't know if this is towards me, but I definitely took this into account. An Independent is someone who played both (or neither).

It was more thinking out loud. If the average voter played 75% of the games the characters are involved (a high amount IMO) there is going to be on average 7/16 matches where at least one pair involved is from a game not played by the voter. Also a main difference between the game of the decade and the rivalry rumble is that even if you didn't know either game you could still vote for the game that people talk about how much it deserves to be GotD. No one talks about great rivalries in gaming history.

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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352

It's certainly a theory Soul, but since you aren't really providing any logic other than "they will vote based on character because they always have in character battles," I don't think you should really be telling me to ignore logic.

Your logic is that people who played both games will vote for whatever rivalry they think was better. I disagree. For the people who have played both games, they're going to vote for their favorite character of the bunch. The people who've played neither will probably vote based on whatever reasons they can think of (bracket, company, character designs, interesting name). Rivalries will have very little to do with this contest, other than those who visit this board and take these contests really seriously.

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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename

I honestly think people who are highly invested in these contests will just pick their favorite character out of the 4 more often, not less. We're more attached to our favorite characters' performance in these contests. I'm not going to let Crono suffer just because his rival sucks.

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90s games > 00s games

Not every person is voting for their favorite character every match.

red sox loves Crono, but he's not gonna do that for every battle. It's kind of the exception to the rule anyway.

I honestly think people who are highly invested in these contests will just pick their favorite character out of the 4 more often, not less. We're more attached to our favorite characters' performance in these contests. I'm not going to let Crono suffer just because his rival sucks.

What makes you think casual voters won't do the same? Why would they care if the title of the contest says "Best Rivals" when their favorite character is in the match? If you're saying that the people who are really into these contests won't vote according to the "rules", why would people who don't have any interest in it vote differently?

EDIT: Let me clarify before someone throws that "independent" argument back at me. I don't necessarily mean their favorite character, but who they prefer (rather it be picture, name, company, etc).

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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename

What makes you think casual voters won't do the same? Why would they care if the title of the contest says "Best Rivals" when their favorite character is in the match? If you're saying that the people who are really into these contests won't vote according to the "rules", why would people who don't have any interest in it vote differently?

There will be people in both camps from both groups. My theory that contest regulars will tend to care less about the rivalry aspect of it is much more speculative and mostly based on me- back in 2002 I'd have voted for 2 characters I liked over 1 character I liked slightly more and 1 character I hated. But now I care less who wins the match and more about what the final x-stats will look like.

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90s games > 00s games

I just thought about this. Mario has no chance of beating Link. Mario has more of a chance of beating Cloud. Cloud has some (tiny) chance of beating Link. I think the rivalries just exacerbate all three of those statements. Is it possible that the bracket was set up this way to give Mario a chance of winning if Cloud/Seph can knock off Link first?

XxSoulxX posted...
In order to believe this, you have to ignore all logic. People will see the characters they like and vote for them. Same as any other contest we've had in the past. The people on the fence, your "independents" if you like, won't go in depth about what rivalry is better. They'll find their favorite character of the bunch and vote for them (or anti-vote their most hated character). The same as any other contest. Throwing a sidekick/villain from the same game won't make a difference in this contest.

What the hell. I completely disagree.

I think the theory makes sense when you get later in the contest. Early on, saying "The more popular rivalry wins." Well, thanks Captain Obvious. The problem is figuring how which is more popular.

All we have to go off of is how popular the individual characters are.. and that makes sense, doesn't it?

No way you're going to use subjective arguments to justify a pick.

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*is Dranze*
I lost my girl and lost to Black Turtle. Can't get worse.

What the hell. I completely disagree.

I know you wouldn't agree, that's why you're so adamant on the Pokemon Trainers being worth anything in this contest.

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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename

What I was most worried about as far as Tidus/Jecht vs. Big Boss/The Boss is that Big Boss might draw a significant amount of his contest strength out of sheer "badass factor".

Fortunately, Big Boss actually seems to be about equal to MGS3.

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Currently Playing - StarCraft: Brood War

XxSoulxX posted...
What the hell. I completely disagree.

I know you wouldn't agree, that's why you're so adamant on the Pokemon Trainers being worth anything in this contest.

Screw a sig bet. I think you are dead wrong. Do you want to put your account where your fingers are?

FlGHT FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT

Big Boss/The Boss over Tidus/Jecht, of all rivalries, is a no brainer, in my mind. I would be very surprised to see Boss lose that.

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peace comes from within

Then again, it would be classic GameFAQs to do it wrong!

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peace comes from within

pjbasis posted...
FlGHT FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT

YEAAAHHHH

I don't know why BB>Tidus/Jecht would be some shockingly wrong result. Tidus/Jecht is one of the best rivalries in the contest.

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

What? No way. Tidus/Jecht is bad all around.

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peace comes from within

really now

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Absolutely. The 'content' of their rivalry is shake-my-head worthy. Worst FF rivalry in the contest by a good ways.

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peace comes from within

ZFSighting

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I love the high five at the end of FFX. Still, these two aren't beating The Bosses. That rivalry is just too damn emotional and good, and having an awesome Naked Snake picture to deal with is too much for both Tidus and Jecht.

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Terra/Kefka isn't much of a rivalry, but Kefka beats everyone involved tbqh

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peace comes from within

bartz/gilgamesh superior

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I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN

bartz/gilgamesh one of the best in the contest

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peace comes from within

*worst

Bacon's a big fan of long prediction periods.

We might just need a long prediction period to maximize the total number of brackets, since site traffic is even lower than last contest and interest in this contest is at an all-time low.

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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!

I want the HM who has good FF opinions to come back, please.

From: UltimaterializerX | #401
This board picks him EVERY YEAR and he never even wins one round.

2007 and 2008 say "Hello."

I mean, unless you're of the opinion that "advancing to round 2 in second place =/= winning," but most people didn't pick him to finish first in either of those years.

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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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IBLOL4-WAYS

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I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN

I like Tidus, I like FFX, I don't like the Tidus/Jecht rivalry! Pretty good opinions!

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peace comes from within