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Current Events > Nate Silver urges Biden: Reassure voters or 'stand down'

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BlueTigerLion
02/19/24 2:52:51 PM
#1:


https://thehill.com/elections/4476959-nate-silver-urges-biden-reassure-voters-or-stand-down/

That can't be good if all these Dems in media are saying Biden should step aside and let someone else run.

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Irony
02/19/24 2:53:06 PM
#2:


Who?

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TonyKojima
02/19/24 2:53:24 PM
#3:


Is this idiot even relevant?

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BlackOmnimon
02/19/24 2:53:48 PM
#4:


Trump is going to stomp, isn't he?

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SilvosForever
02/19/24 2:54:17 PM
#5:


Ain't this some bullshit lol. Biden's favored to win.

Show me a person who thinks Biden won't be the candidate for the Dems and I'll show you a moron.

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Irony
02/19/24 2:54:30 PM
#6:


BlackOmnimon posted...
Trump is going to stomp, isn't he?
If Biden steps down yes

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#7
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lilORANG
02/19/24 2:58:18 PM
#8:


Nate Bronze lmao

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#9
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radical_rhino
02/19/24 3:00:45 PM
#10:


The fact is Trump is polling better against Biden than he did 4 years ago. The fact is also that Biden appears significantly more feeble than 4 years ago, while Trump looks and sounds the same that he has his entire political career.

That said, sticking with Biden is probably still the Democrats best bet, even if he has a <50% chance of winning (which he does currently).

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[deleted]
02/19/24 3:01:35 PM
#86:


[deleted]
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emblem-man
02/19/24 3:02:16 PM
#11:


Step down and pick who!!!!

Who is this magical candidate that they think will beat Trump?

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#12
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Irony
02/19/24 3:03:35 PM
#13:


emblem-man posted...
Step down and pick who!!!!

Who is this magical candidate that they think will beat Trump?
Dean Phillips

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TonyKojima
02/19/24 3:04:58 PM
#14:


[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

In fairness they do call cell phones a lot more now but yes they also STILL use landlines polling and the fact that a huge portion of people don't answer unknown or blocked numbers their available sample pool quadruples. Polling as practiced today is an outdated methodology.

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Ronaldo
02/19/24 3:05:52 PM
#15:


The defense squad when Biden receives even a little pushback is wild.
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SilvosForever
02/19/24 3:06:16 PM
#16:


radical_rhino posted...
The fact is Trump is polling better against Biden than he did 4 years ago. The fact is also that Biden appears significantly more feeble than 4 years ago, while Trump looks and sounds the same that he has his entire political career.

That said, sticking with Biden is probably still the Democrats best bet, even if he has a <50% chance of winning (which he does currently).

You need to understand their polling methodology.

How do they get the results for these polls?

Answer: Landline polls. No joke. They call people's phone numbers and ask them who they prefer. Guess what happens? They get a bunch of 60+ year olds who answer calls from random phone numbers and a bunch of people who don't pick up.

So yeah, amongst the group of Americans who answer calls from random phone numbers, Trump has a marginal preference rating, 6+ months out from the election.

End of the fucking world, I know.

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#17
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Jagr_68
02/19/24 3:08:33 PM
#18:


Every political blowhard in this country has been demanding in tears that Joe resign but he's probably just gonna stand more and more firm out of spite, potentially proving him right next November.

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MaxEffingBemis
02/19/24 3:11:19 PM
#19:


emblem-man posted...
Step down and pick who!!!!

Who is this magical candidate that they think will beat Trump?
Gretchen Whitmer. JB Pritzker. Raphael Warnock.

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TonyKojima
02/19/24 3:12:03 PM
#20:


Remember when Nate defended trump and called it a good day when he had the USAF bomb the Iranian general. Dude is a hack and lived off his lucky guesses in 2008 and 2012.

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emblem-man
02/19/24 3:12:42 PM
#21:


Irony posted...
Dean Phillips



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TonyKojima
02/19/24 3:12:55 PM
#22:


MaxEffingBemis posted...
Gretchen Whitmer. JB Pritzker. Raphael Warnock.
It's too late to replace Biden and all of them are unknown owns to the general public. I agree Biden should have not run again but he is and I will support him 100%.

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Irony
02/19/24 3:13:42 PM
#23:


emblem-man posted...
My post wasn't serious btw

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emblem-man
02/19/24 3:13:43 PM
#24:


MaxEffingBemis posted...
Gretchen Whitmer. JB Pritzker. Raphael Warnock.
Why?

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Background_Guy
02/19/24 3:13:58 PM
#25:


Since when was Nate Silver a Dem?
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SecretBase
02/19/24 3:14:49 PM
#26:


Nate Silver is a big part of the problem. He peddled all sort of sham Republican polls during the 2022 midterms that ended up wrong. So now when credible polls say Biden's weak and likely to lose, nobody believes them.

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GrandConjuraton
02/19/24 3:15:01 PM
#27:


No one cares, Nate Copper.

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emblem-man
02/19/24 3:15:02 PM
#28:


Irony posted...
My post wasn't serious btw

Is the idea that he wins the moderate and apathetic voters Biden won in 2020?

If I'm not mistaken, he's more moderate that Biden so it's not as if Israel policy would change, so nothing changes regarding the young voters.


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MaxEffingBemis
02/19/24 3:15:08 PM
#29:


TonyKojima posted...
It's too late to replace Biden and all of them are unknown owns to the general public. I agree Biden should have not run again but he is and I will support him 100%.
Its not too late until they get to the convention. Sure, its unprecedented but this is unprecedented times

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ironman2009
02/19/24 3:15:47 PM
#30:


nah it's too late

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BignutzisBack
02/19/24 3:16:06 PM
#31:


It's Joever

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emblem-man
02/19/24 3:16:23 PM
#32:


MaxEffingBemis posted...
Its not too late until they get to the convention. Sure, its unprecedented but this is unprecedented times

Yes, the party that's fighting for the idea of Democracy should ignore a democratic primary and instead choose the candidate based on party elites.

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TonyKojima
02/19/24 3:16:27 PM
#33:


MaxEffingBemis posted...
Its not too late until they get to the convention. Sure, its unprecedented but this is unprecedented times
Do you realize how much of a dysfunctional shit show it would be?

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Irony
02/19/24 3:17:54 PM
#34:


emblem-man posted...
Is the idea that he wins the moderate and apathetic voters Biden won in 2020?

If I'm not mistaken, he's more moderate that Biden so it's not as if Israel policy would change, so nothing changes regarding the young voters.
He doesn't win anything when he announced he was going to primary Biden everybody's immediate reaction was who

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MaxEffingBemis
02/19/24 3:18:41 PM
#35:


emblem-man posted...
Yes, the party that's fighting for the idea of Democracy should ignore a democratic primary and instead choose the candidate based on party elites.
Like I said, its unprecedented but if theres too much hemming and hawing over his age or his inaction on Gaza or whatnot then this gives a lot of these voters what they want; someone else.

TonyKojima posted...
Do you realize how much of a dysfunctional shit show it would be?
Dog its a shitshow on the other side of the aisle too

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TonyKojima
02/19/24 3:19:17 PM
#36:


MaxEffingBemis posted...
Like I said, its unprecedented but if theres too much hemming and hawing over his age or his inaction on Gaza or whatnot then this gives a lot of these voters what they want; someone else.

Dog its a shitshow on the other side of the aisle too
That's a terrible answer.

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SaikyoStyle
02/19/24 3:20:41 PM
#38:


Someone give Nate Zinc a ball to bounce so he shuts up for a while.

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Tanthalas
02/19/24 3:20:41 PM
#37:


Joe Biden should reassure voters how?

The US is better now than when Trump left it after shatting on it for 4 years.

That people even consider voting Trump back in is simply madness.

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MaxEffingBemis
02/19/24 3:20:44 PM
#39:


TonyKojima posted...
That's a terrible answer.
You routinely give terrible answers

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emblem-man
02/19/24 3:20:53 PM
#40:


MaxEffingBemis posted...
Like I said, its unprecedented but if theres too much hemming and hawing over his age or his inaction on Gaza or whatnot then this gives a lot of these voters what they want; someone else.

I think it's crazy to think a more left wing candidate on Gaza and other policies would come out of that shit show of a convention


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MaxEffingBemis
02/19/24 3:21:42 PM
#41:


emblem-man posted...
I think it's crazy to think a more left wing candidate on Gaza and other policies would come out of that shit show of a convention
Then that says a lot about the Democratic Party

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#42
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TonyKojima
02/19/24 3:23:37 PM
#43:


[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

We agree.

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emblem-man
02/19/24 3:23:51 PM
#44:


MaxEffingBemis posted...
Then that says a lot about the Democratic Party

Speaks more about the US voters. If it's about beating trump, they are going to choose someone who has the best chance and they can win independent voters. A left wing candidate is not it.

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Tanthalas
02/19/24 3:24:29 PM
#45:


MaxEffingBemis posted...
Then that says a lot about the Democratic Party
Why? You really think that a progressive would come out of that convention with a nomination? They would obviously go for a more consensual candidate. Kamala Harris would have a higher chance of getting the nomination than a progressive.

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MaxEffingBemis
02/19/24 3:24:49 PM
#46:


[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

Id actually be in favor of Harris being the nominee

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radical_rhino
02/19/24 3:25:10 PM
#47:


I have a hard time seeing the convention nominating someone besides Harris; it would be terrible optics, and the other realistic option (re: Newsom) is perceived as a left coast hyper-liberal. And Harris is unpopular and consistently polls worse vs. Trump than Biden does.

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emblem-man
02/19/24 3:25:21 PM
#48:


[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

Yep. Imagine a speech in which he talks up the admins great accomplishments but says he has to step down for someone younger.

And then he doesn't endorse his VP.

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wackyteen
02/19/24 3:26:28 PM
#49:


Even if Biden doesn't beat Trump, Trump is going to absolutely empty the GOPs coffers and cost them the House and Senate. Though with their plans (Project 2025), we can't afford Trump in the White House even.

I also think that Trump hollowing out the GOPs coffers will cost him votes. With minimal competition on the airwaves, the democratic candidates can air endless attack ads which will drive Dem voters, which in turn will get Biden votes. I doubt downballot Dem voters are going to want to risk a Trump win.

GOP has made their bed and they're about to lie in it

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