Current Events > There's a 98% chance of a global recession, research firm warns.

(+) Yeah! (+)

Farewell and adieu to you, fair Spanish ladies! Farewell and adieu, you ladies of Spain!
For we've received orders for to sail back to Boston,
And so nevermore shall we see you again.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/28/economy/recession-global-economy/index.html

"Warning lights are flashing in the global economy as high inflation, drastic rate hikes and the war in Ukraine take their toll.

There is currently a 98.1% chance of a global recession, according to a probability model run by Ned Davis Research.

The only other times that recession model was this high has been during severe economic downturns, most recently in 2020 and during the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009.

This indicates that the risk of a severe global recession is rising for some time in 2023, economists at Ned Davis Research wrote in a report last Friday.

As central banks ramp up their efforts to get inflation under control, economists and investors are growing gloomier.

Seven out of 10 economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum consider a global recession at least somewhat likely, according to a report published Wednesday. Economists dialed back their forecasts for growth and expect inflation-adjusted wages to keep falling the rest of this year and next.

Given surging food and energy prices, there are concerns that the high cost of living could lead to pockets of unrest. Seventy-nine percent of the economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum expect rising prices to trigger social unrest in low-income countries, compared to a 20% expectation in high-income economies.

Investors are also getting more concerned, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sinking into a bear market Monday for the first time since March 2020.

Our central case is a hard landing by the end of 23, billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller said at the CNBC Delivering Alpha Investor Summit Wednesday. I will be stunned if we dont have a recession in 23.

Even Federal Reserve officials have conceded there is a growing risk of a downturn.
Still, there are clearly bright spots, especially in the United States, the worlds largest economy.
The US jobs market remains historically strong, with the unemployment rate sitting near the lowest levels since 1969. Consumers continue to spend money and corporate profits are sturdy.
There are also hopes that the worst US inflation in 40 years will cool off in the coming months as supply catches up with demand.

The Ned Davis researchers said that although recession risks are rising, its US recession probability model is still at rock-bottom levels.
We do not have conclusive evidence that the US is currently in recession, the researchers wrote in the report."

Cool, maybe homes will be affordable in a few years

Russia is just fucking up everything for everyone, aren't they?

s0nicfan posted...

Russia is just fucking up everything for everyone, aren't they?

Things have been silently bad for years.

Imagine, if you will, being outwardly healthy but suffering internally. Well, eventually your symptoms will show outwardly.

The real question is how bad will this global recession be and does it trigger a Chinese economic collapse that in turn causes more global economic chaos.

Fasten your seat belts and put your helmets on, things are gonna get bumpy and those dark storm clouds in the distance don't look none too friendly either

I like those odds.

We just need to change the definition of recession yet again and we will be fine!!!

Well shit, maybe taxing billionaires to get more money back into the economy would help this a bit. But you know.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

You don't get very far in a war when you have a weak economy.

Desperation may drive some countries into regional conflicts in a ploy for resources, but at that point the world won't exist in a manner that we know it as

Sayoria posted...

Well shit, maybe taxing billionaires to get more money back into the economy would help this a bit. But you know.

definitely a start. what in the fuck could you ever do with a billion dollars.

Weezy_Tha_Don posted...

definitely a start. what in the fuck could you ever do with a billion dollars.

Give a fuck ton of it away and make thousands of people happy.

How many once-in-a-lifetime recessions do we gotta go through?...

sauceje posted...

How many once-in-a-lifetime recessions do we gotta go through?...

It's the once-in-a-lifetime depression you gotta be worried about.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


Hell, Italy just elected their most far-right leader since Mussolini.

98.1%

So you're saying there's a chance?

Yeah, thats how economies works.

thronedfire2 posted...

Cool, maybe homes will be affordable in a few years

With all the investors and companies buying them up and nothing stopping them? Nah. Company towns are almost certainly back on the menu before the end of next decade.

Time for the UK economy to collapse to set it off!

Ok

Oh no, I haven't heard this before

There will never be a war like WW2 again. Nuclear weapons makes it too suicidal to attempt.

If you couldnt afford a house in the last two years, youre not going to afford one of the house market crashes.

You guys realize a higher interest rate on a cheaper house is going to be more expensive out of pocket then the historically low rates we just had for 2-3 years right? If not, probably not ready to buy a house.

wackyteen posted...

Give a fuck ton of it away and make thousands of people happy.

lol yeah, thats my point. no single person could ever spend that much money on themselves. at least I dont think