Board 8 > Dota 2 Mafia 2 Topic 7 - Oh my God it's a BLACK HOOOOLE (of host humor)

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Lopen
09/12/22 6:33:45 PM
#201:


changmas posted...
he said it's jailkeeper

Oh

Yeah def kill it

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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 6:35:37 PM
#202:


Lopen posted...
You haven't played miller how you'd expect
You haven't played watcher how you'd expect (why on earth watch me night 2)

It might not be optimal but unlike your claimed role, there's also no correct answer. Corrik mentioned in this game a game where four millers claimed, three initially with only the first being real and a fourth real one much later. That's the only other instance of something like this I have heard of. But you're purposely ignoring the combination of my roles to prove your point. Because I wasn't just miller, I have a role that you don't want to claim right away and there is no way I could've counterclaimed miller without it leading to claiming watcher as well, so I chose to not claim it but still play as if I had and honestly I'm surprised no one seemed to consider why I was so certain.

Watching you night 2 isn't as bad as it's made out to be either because there was no clear choice to watch.

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Lopen
09/12/22 6:37:13 PM
#203:


So I actually did think I was possibly going to be killed last night because I thought Hb was gonna flip Rosh

I was the only person on the earth who thought that though, so not a good night kill at all. I look p bad once Hb flips scum.

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changmas
09/12/22 6:38:17 PM
#204:


kirby are you feeling swayed by ctes at all or just waiting to cast the pre-hammer hammer to give mzero a chance to weigh in, etc.

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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 6:38:44 PM
#205:


Being wrong about one person doesn't chance what happened the first day.

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Lopen
09/12/22 6:38:57 PM
#206:


IF Ulti is Rosh you absolutely do not clear Poppy btw.

If we wait like 90 mins we get shop changes too which people may want I dunno

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changmas
09/12/22 6:39:22 PM
#207:


oh true we could wait for shop changes

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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 6:40:30 PM
#208:


Lopen needs to all to waste money on a uesless plan before ending day in way that confirms him scum.

And somehow that sounds reasonable to you but a watcher in this setup doesn't.

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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 6:40:41 PM
#209:


*needs you all

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Lopen
09/12/22 6:43:48 PM
#210:


That being said

Ctes
Ulti
MZero
Red
Sbell

I think this lynch order is impossible to lose with. If Ulti flips Rosh I would swap Poppy in to lynch before MZero because Corrik had to have killed himself on someone he hinted, but you know, use your judgment I guess.

For the record I'm not necessarily saying buy items to use them on me, but you could absolutely fake me out by visiting the shop in daylight. The point is to throw off the number guessing math. You have to be sure I won't just guess the right number.

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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 6:45:56 PM
#211:


I cannot comprehend that we're ignoring every interaction in the game to do setup meta and then setup meta so utterly terrible.

You don't lynch your only claimed protection. You don't lynch your only claimed scanner. Someone has been suggesting both today.

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changmas
09/12/22 6:46:38 PM
#212:


ctesjbuvf posted...
I cannot comprehend that we're ignoring every interaction in the game to do setup meta and then setup meta so utterly terrible.

You don't lynch your only claimed protection. You don't lynch your only claimed scanner. Someone has been suggesting both today.

You don't let bad claims live simply because they claim strong roles.

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Lopen
09/12/22 6:46:54 PM
#213:


Fun fact I am saying lynch neither of you due to setup meta

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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 6:47:22 PM
#214:


Lopen posted...
For the record I'm not necessarily saying buy items to use them on me, but you could absolutely fake me out by visiting the shop in daylight. The point is to throw off the number guessing math. You have to be sure I won't just guess the right number.

What a load of s***. It's absolutely to waste actions. You know fully well that if I was actually scum you would not need to prove yourself like that.

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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 6:48:08 PM
#215:


Lopen posted...
Fun fact I am saying lynch neither of you due to setup meta

Yes you are. You are literally saying good roles can't exist.

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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 6:50:22 PM
#216:


To whomever that is either on me now or saying they will be and is town; if I die like this, take a deep breath before joining me in dead town chat.

changmas posted...
You don't let bad claims live simply because they claim strong roles.

Are you ever come around and tell me why this is so obviously the right answer to you?

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changmas
09/12/22 6:51:31 PM
#217:


ctesjbuvf posted...
Are you ever come around and tell me why this is so obviously the right answer to you?

only if Kirby starts to believe you

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Lopen
09/12/22 6:51:53 PM
#218:


I am saying lynch Ulti because

  1. Ulti has been trying to townconfirm himself all game
  2. Corrik hinted Thanos
  3. He waffled on Hb
  4. He is trying to take credit for a Sultan lynch he put basically no work into
I am saying lynch Ctes because

  1. My role caught him in a lie, I know for a fact no visitors either night.
  2. Crusade to lynch a second miller claim doesn't make sense if he's the third miller-- would have claimed miller sooner to help himself, or have said "maybe 3 millers"
  3. Using this claim as a way to avoid interacting with the game.
Setup meta is why I buy Poppy's claim, and why my Rosh priority has MZero/Red/Sbell high. Sbell has some actual function so he might actually be Rosh the more I think about it

Red how exactly does your role work.

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#219
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red13n
09/12/22 6:54:45 PM
#220:


Lopen posted...
Red how exactly does your role work.

I hammer.

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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 6:55:44 PM
#221:


Consider a few more things while thinking I've played these roles so badly that I cannot be town. I have played three games here, one where I replaced in late. I have literally never used an action in any of those games.

Good town play is not just thinking that the play doesn't make sense and ignore the rest. Good town is asking why more here. Not only ask why I'd do this as town, but also ask that if I'm scum why would I claim this here and now on a day where we've spoken of mass claiming the whole day? I'd have had people to talk to about it, why'd they have said yes to this as well?

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Kirby321
09/12/22 6:56:23 PM
#222:


changmas posted...
kirby are you feeling swayed by ctes at all or just waiting to cast the pre-hammer hammer to give mzero a chance to weigh in, etc.

I want to wait for MZero. I feel like knowing his role will help us solve the puzzle of the third party and what exactly they're capable of.

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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 6:57:46 PM
#223:


You can't just list some reasons to act like you also didn't claim good roles couldn't exist.

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changmas
09/12/22 6:59:24 PM
#224:


Kirby321 posted...
I want to wait for MZero. I feel like knowing his role will help us solve the puzzle of the third party and what exactly they're capable of.

Sounds good. We'll wait for the shop update and MZero to stop by and claim

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Lopen
09/12/22 7:01:13 PM
#225:


red13n posted...
I hammer.

Are you able to vote normally at all? Can you double vote? What if your vote is on someone else, does it hammer anyway?

Do you have an item?

ctesjbuvf posted...
You can't just list some reasons to act like you also didn't claim good roles couldn't exist.

I didn't say that as the core of my argument. This is entirely to help figure out Roshan. You were caught in a lie, Ulti has been being built for days.

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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 7:03:33 PM
#226:


Lopen is probably just trying to get as much info as possible knowing his days are numbered right now. I would consider not asking much.

Lopen posted...
I didn't say that as the core of my argument. This is entirely to help figure out Roshan. You were caught in a lie, Ulti has been being built for days.

It was only the first thing you said after the mass claim.

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Kirby321
09/12/22 7:03:35 PM
#227:


ctesjbuvf posted...
To whomever that is either on me now or saying they will be and is town; if I die like this, take a deep breath before joining me in dead town chat.

If you're town, then I very much look forward to what you and Corrik will discuss in dead town chat after the game. Perhaps Corrik will roast the rest of us for being absolute morons. Perhaps he'll roast you for not bringing up your Miller identity earlier. I'm morbidly curious to see which stance he would take.

But that's assuming you're town. Anyway..

Let's weigh our options here...

Kill ctes today:
  • If town, Lopen is scum, so...
  • Ulti can protect whoever he wants, assuming he's actually town
  • I just goof off and do nothing productive
  • If scum, Lopen is town, so...
  • Ulti protects Lopen to confirm himself
  • I do illusion stuff for Lopen to see, confirming myself


Kill Lopen today:
  • If town, ctes is scum so...
  • Ulti just protects whoever he wants
  • I goof off and do nothing
  • If scum, ctes is town so...
  • Ulti and ctes can coordinate to visit the same person
  • I can coordinate with ctes to make an illusion
  • ... But how are we gonna do that if we won't know who is truthful before the flip happens?


Equity says we can get two town clears if Lopen is telling the truth and we lynch Ctes first.
But on the flipside, if we lynch Lopen first and he's lying, Ulti can take the hit for Ctes assuming Ulti is even telling the truth.

Hmm... I will say, a fake claim of this level isn't an unrealistic possibility. Psychic is easy to fake in this context, since Poppy, Ulti, and I already said who we visited last night (none of whom were Lopen).

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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 7:03:57 PM
#228:


By not asking much I would mean not answering much.

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changmas
09/12/22 7:05:04 PM
#229:


hold the line Kirby! do not fall for scum's temptations!

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Lopen
09/12/22 7:06:12 PM
#230:


Consider why Ctes would watch me night 2

That's really all you need to know he's not watcher

And a third miller wouldn't keep going for the head of the second miller when the first miller had flipped

That's really all you need to know he's not miller

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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 7:06:15 PM
#231:


Kirby321 posted...
Perhaps Corrik will roast the rest of us for being absolute morons. Perhaps he'll roast you for not bringing up your Miller identity earlier.

It's almost certainly both.

But he'd also know I wouldn't say that now if it wasn't true, probably.

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#232
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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 7:08:16 PM
#233:


Lopen posted...
Consider why Ctes would watch me night 2

That's really all you need to know he's not watcher

And a third miller wouldn't keep going for the head of the second miller when the first miller had flipped

That's really all you need to know he's not miller

Also

Consider why scum ctes would say he watched Lopen night 2 as scum.

Consider why third miller would want to keep going for the head of the second miller when the first miller had flipped.

These are just as important.

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Lopen
09/12/22 7:09:14 PM
#234:


Unlike previous days I am not willing to be lynched before Ctes

Ctes is 100% scum (not 99.7% hoops) and my role can confirm some people (or force a "someone is lying" situation) if I survive the night.

So it's imperative I be left alive.

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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 7:09:41 PM
#235:


The miller case you're making here is also stupid. I was ready to humor two millers but I thought three would be ridiculous. How is that unreasonable. Why should I think there was no lier there because one of them flipped? Why would it have to be only me or all three? That logic is so bad.

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#236
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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 7:10:30 PM
#237:


UltimaterializerX posted...
We are not killing Lopen today, and I very much trust you guys to kill him tomorrow if ctes flips town.

If you're starting to consider me as town, do consider what role you'll rather risk losing here.

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Lopen
09/12/22 7:10:35 PM
#238:


ctesjbuvf posted...
Consider why scum ctes would say he watched Lopen night 2 as scum.

Scum ctes
  1. Doesn't know Lopen is psychic
  2. Thinks Lopen thinks highly of himself and will believe the watch choice



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Lopen
09/12/22 7:11:24 PM
#239:


ctesjbuvf posted...
The miller case you're making here is also stupid. I was ready to humor two millers but I thought three would be ridiculous. How is that unreasonable. Why should I think there was no lier there because one of them flipped? Why would it have to be only me or all three? That logic is so bad.

You claim miller day 1 and force the standoff in this case imo

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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 7:13:16 PM
#240:


Lopen posted...
You claim miller day 1 and force the standoff in this case imo

That literally doesn't answer the question at all. You were questioning attacking the second claimed miller after the first one flipped, which was day 2.

Lopen posted...
Scum ctes
1. Doesn't know Lopen is psychic
2. Thinks Lopen thinks highly of himself and will believe the watch choice

That doesn't answer why he'd think it was the smart claim to make.

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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 7:13:49 PM
#241:


changmas posted...
hold the line Kirby! do not fall for scum's temptations!

I believe this is your cue to explain yourself.

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Lopen
09/12/22 7:14:53 PM
#242:


ctesjbuvf posted...
That literally doesn't answer the question at all. You were questioning attacking the second claimed miller after the first one flipped, which was day 2.

There were two miller claims, and you know you're miller. You know one is lying if three can't exist.

ctesjbuvf posted...
That doesn't answer why he'd think it was the smart claim to make.

Pockets Lopen, who is very loud.

Once Lopen is loud enough and wrong long enough, Lopen is lynched endgame

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Kirby321
09/12/22 7:15:29 PM
#243:


I'm gonna invoke Han here and say that town tend to make mistakes, while scum are usually perfect.

In this scenario, Lopen has a perfect claim while Ctes's isn't.

Ulti and I can confirm ourselves off of Lopen. We can't do the same with Ctes.

However, Ctes was very friendly with Hb, defending him to the death. Ctes never placed a vote on either of the two scum lynches. Ctes also didnt start with an item like most of us did.

Lopen, on the other hand... I'm curious. Why haven't both of your Tango charges been spent yet? In fact... why do you even get two? Surely if scum shoots you once, they would just assume you were Bulletproof and leave you alone. The fact that you have two, unspent charges is kinda reckless, especially if you had died without ever using them.

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Lopen
09/12/22 7:16:10 PM
#244:


Kirby321 posted...
Why haven't both of your Tango charges been spent yet?

They have. I said I used them both n1 and n2.

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Lopen
09/12/22 7:17:06 PM
#245:


Also I don't think Tango is actually bulletproof. I was just guessing. Now that I've seen the setup I don't think it's that at all.

It uses the same health regen language in the shop items.

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changmas
09/12/22 7:17:15 PM
#246:


Lopen posted...
Night 1 - Used Tango, No visitors
Night 2 - Used Tango, No visitors


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ctesjbuvf
09/12/22 7:18:07 PM
#247:


Lopen posted...
There were two miller claims, and you know you're miller. You know one is lying if three can't exist.

Yes, this is exactly why I attacked the other one when one flipped. I wanted to get the lynch through without outing my power role if possible. If I'm Miller Something Useless I claim much earlier.

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changmas
09/12/22 7:19:03 PM
#248:


Lea never claimed Item Thief though?

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Kirby321
09/12/22 7:20:52 PM
#249:


You know what
I want MZero to claim

I feel like his answer is gonna be imperative to discovering which one of the two is lying

But I guess that's gonna have to wait until much later

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Obellisk
09/12/22 7:20:58 PM
#250:


not caught up. Lea never claimed thief.

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