100 covid cases.

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Trumble 10/09/21 9:38:36 PM #1:	Calling it now. So far the most we've had in one day is 89, which we hit twice during the April(ish) outbreak last year. I reckon we'll have our first day of triple-digit cases by the end of next week (ie: on or before the 17th). --- 1) This board is not for asking about or disputing Trumbles. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958877128] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Calling it now. So far the most we've had in one day is 89, which we hit twice during the April(ish) outbreak last year. I reckon we'll have our first day of triple-digit cases by the end of next week (ie: on or before the 17th). </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/09/21 9:39:01 PM #2:	I also reckon within the same timeframe, a South Island case will pop up for the first time since late last year (and first time since early last year for a non-border-related case). --- 1) This board is not for asking about or disputing Trumbles. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958877141] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>I also reckon within the same timeframe, a South Island case will pop up for the first time since late last year (and first time since early last year for a non-border-related case). </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Back_Stabbath 10/09/21 9:41:26 PM #3:	member when news around the rest of the world was like "full on lockdown over ONE case? LOL" :( --- https://imgur.com/Iv5fRLt <cite>Back_Stabbath posted [p:958877204] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>member when news around the rest of the world was like "full on lockdown over ONE case? LOL" :( </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/09/21 9:47:19 PM #4:	Back_Stabbath posted... member when news around the rest of the world was like "full on lockdown over ONE case? LOL" Yeah, people didn't bother to look into context. We haven't been locking down every time a case pops up outside quarantine - only if there's reason to believe there may be more widespread transmission going on beyond just the discovered case itself. Also worth noting that generally, lockdowns have been limited to the Auckland region only - this latest outbreak had a lot of unknowns at first, and has been managing to jump regional borders lately, so it's a bit different (initially the whole country went into lockdown; everywhere except Auckland eventually came out, but Northland and half of Waikato have since gone back in); but until this outbreak, nowhere outside Auckland had seen a lockdown in this country since early 2020. Even with the benefit of hindsight, only one of the lockdowns prior to this outbreak turned out to be a bad move - and that was sheer luck, as the circumstances definitely pointed towards it being necessary without the benefit of hindsight. (I should note there's far more room to debate if the August 2020 outbreak and February-March 2021 outbreak could've been prevented with better border / etc measures, but that's different from judging the response to them once they do happen.) It's also worth nothing that until either this Monday just gone, or about four weeks before that (depending on whether you go by what the government say, or by what they do), NZ's goal was literally "zero tolerance, stamp out every outbreak", not "live with it and just don't let it overwhelm the healthcare system". We're still to some extent in a transition between the two rather than fully moved into the latter. --- 1) This board is not for asking about or disputing Trumbles. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958877350] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Back_Stabbath posted... </cite> <quote>member when news around the rest of the world was like "full on lockdown over ONE case? LOL"</quote>Yeah, people didn't bother to look into context. We haven't been locking down every time a case pops up outside quarantine - only if there's reason to believe there may be more widespread transmission going on beyond just the discovered case itself. Also worth noting that generally, lockdowns have been limited to the Auckland region only - this latest outbreak had a lot of unknowns at first, and has been managing to jump regional borders lately, so it's a bit different (initially the whole country went into lockdown; everywhere except Auckland eventually came out, but Northland and half of Waikato have since gone back in); but until this outbreak, nowhere outside Auckland had seen a lockdown in this country since early 2020. Even with the benefit of hindsight, only one of the lockdowns prior to this outbreak turned out to be a bad move - and that was sheer luck, as the circumstances definitely pointed towards it being necessary without the benefit of hindsight. (I should note there's far more room to debate if the August 2020 outbreak and February-March 2021 outbreak could've been prevented with better border / etc measures, but that's different from judging the response to them once they do happen.) It's also worth nothing that until either this Monday just gone, or about four weeks before that (depending on whether you go by what the government say, or by what they do), NZ's goal was literally "zero tolerance, stamp out every outbreak", not "live with it and just don't let it overwhelm the healthcare system". We're still to some extent in a transition between the two rather than fully moved into the latter. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Johnny_Nutcase 10/09/21 9:48:20 PM #5:	Don't turn into the US, NZ. We fucked up so bad here and we still can't get rid of it. --- Drunk people really make a lot of sense if you don't know what they're talking about - Jim Lahey <cite>Johnny_Nutcase posted [p:958877370] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Don't turn into the US, NZ. We fucked up so bad here and we still can't get rid of it. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/09/21 9:50:49 PM #6:	Johnny_Nutcase posted... Don't turn into the US, NZ. We fucked up so bad here and we still can't get rid of it. Antivaxxers are about 2% of the population if that here, not a significant portion. We'll be fine. Hesitancy is a bit higher, but that's increasingly being cut through and people are choosing to do the right thing. Also we don't really have a choice at this point other than "keep restrictions to the bare minimum that keep the virus at a manageable level, while pushing as hard as we can to finish the vaccine rollout ASAP". There's neither the funding nor the public goodwill left to keep pursuing the strategy of eliminating outbreaks with drawn-out lockdowns, even without taking into account that that strategy doesn't seem to work against Delta outbreaks anyway. (Despite our much stricter rules and better compliance, the outbreak was always following a similar trajectory to NSW's and Victoria's anyway.) Doubly so when we see things like, gang members violating the rules and getting off more or less scot-free, while people doing the right thing are left with reduced (if any) income, not able to see their friends and family, etc. It's for a good cause, but not doing anything about blatant rulebreakers is majorly eroding compliance from those who were previously happy to follow restrictions. --- 1) This board is not for asking about or disputing Trumbles. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958877429] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Johnny_Nutcase posted... </cite> <quote>Don't turn into the US, NZ. We fucked up so bad here and we still can't get rid of it.</quote>Antivaxxers are about 2% of the population if that here, not a significant portion. We'll be fine. Hesitancy is a bit higher, but that's increasingly being cut through and people are choosing to do the right thing. Also we don't really have a choice at this point other than "keep restrictions to the bare minimum that keep the virus at a manageable level, while pushing as hard as we can to finish the vaccine rollout ASAP". There's neither the funding nor the public goodwill left to keep pursuing the strategy of eliminating outbreaks with drawn-out lockdowns, even without taking into account that that strategy doesn't seem to work against Delta outbreaks anyway. (Despite our much stricter rules and better compliance, the outbreak was always following a similar trajectory to NSW's and Victoria's anyway.) Doubly so when we see things like, gang members violating the rules and getting off more or less scot-free, while people doing the right thing are left with reduced (if any) income, not able to see their friends and family, etc. It's for a good cause, but not doing anything about blatant rulebreakers is majorly eroding compliance from those who were previously happy to follow restrictions. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ScazarMeltex 10/09/21 9:57:57 PM #7:	Trumble posted... Antivaxxers are about 2% of the population if that here, not a significant portion. We'll be fine. Hesitancy is a bit higher, but that's increasingly being cut through and people are choosing to do the right thing. Also we don't really have a choice at this point other than "keep restrictions to the bare minimum that keep the virus at a manageable level, while pushing as hard as we can to finish the vaccine rollout ASAP". There's neither the funding nor the public goodwill left to keep pursuing the strategy of eliminating outbreaks with drawn-out lockdowns, even without taking into account that that strategy doesn't seem to work against Delta outbreaks anyway. (Despite our much stricter rules and better compliance, the outbreak was always following a similar trajectory to NSW's and Victoria's anyway.) Doubly so when we see things like, gang members violating the rules and getting off more or less scot-free, while people doing the right thing are left with reduced (if any) income, not able to see their friends and family, etc. It's for a good cause, but not doing anything about blatant rulebreakers is majorly eroding compliance from those who were previously happy to follow restrictions. How hard is it to migrate to NZ? I've no desire to stay in the US past the death of my mother, whenever that might be. I'd like to spend the second half of my life in a country not full of idiotic racists, rampant anti intellectualism, and corporate bootlickers. Also one with a healthcare system that won't bankrupt me if my cancer comes back at some point. --- "If you wish to converse with me define your terms" Voltaire <cite>ScazarMeltex posted [p:958877607] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Trumble posted... </cite> <quote>Antivaxxers are about 2% of the population if that here, not a significant portion. We'll be fine. Hesitancy is a bit higher, but that's increasingly being cut through and people are choosing to do the right thing. Also we don't really have a choice at this point other than "keep restrictions to the bare minimum that keep the virus at a manageable level, while pushing as hard as we can to finish the vaccine rollout ASAP". There's neither the funding nor the public goodwill left to keep pursuing the strategy of eliminating outbreaks with drawn-out lockdowns, even without taking into account that that strategy doesn't seem to work against Delta outbreaks anyway. (Despite our much stricter rules and better compliance, the outbreak was always following a similar trajectory to NSW's and Victoria's anyway.) Doubly so when we see things like, gang members violating the rules and getting off more or less scot-free, while people doing the right thing are left with reduced (if any) income, not able to see their friends and family, etc. It's for a good cause, but not doing anything about blatant rulebreakers is majorly eroding compliance from those who were previously happy to follow restrictions.</quote>How hard is it to migrate to NZ? I've no desire to stay in the US past the death of my mother, whenever that might be. I'd like to spend the second half of my life in a country not full of idiotic racists, rampant anti intellectualism, and corporate bootlickers. Also one with a healthcare system that won't bankrupt me if my cancer comes back at some point. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/09/21 10:02:01 PM #8:	ScazarMeltex posted... How hard is it to migrate to NZ? Right now, forget about it (unless you have some very specific and in-demand skills, in which case you might be able to get an exemption). Once we reopen internationally, it's not too hard. I'm not sure that you'd be covered for healthcare, at least until you acquired citizenship, though. One other thing to note is that once you have citizenship (or maybe even just permanent residency?) in either NZ or Australia, you can usually move freely between the two. Australian is the better one to go for if this is your goal, as Australians in NZ get most of the rights of NZ citizens, whereas NZers in Australia are a bit limited when it comes to welfare and political inclusion (and Australia is also very trigger-happy with deportation, which obviously isn't a concern if you're their citizen; NZ isn't averse to it but not super trigger-happy either). --- 1) This board is not for asking about or disputing Trumbles. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958877723] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>ScazarMeltex posted... </cite> <quote>How hard is it to migrate to NZ?</quote>Right now, forget about it (unless you have some very specific and in-demand skills, in which case you might be able to get an exemption). Once we reopen internationally, it's not too hard. I'm not sure that you'd be covered for healthcare, at least until you acquired citizenship, though. One other thing to note is that once you have citizenship (or maybe even just permanent residency?) in either NZ or Australia, you can usually move freely between the two. Australian is the better one to go for if this is your goal, as Australians in NZ get most of the rights of NZ citizens, whereas NZers in Australia are a bit limited when it comes to welfare and political inclusion (and Australia is also very trigger-happy with deportation, which obviously isn't a concern if you're their citizen; NZ isn't averse to it but not super trigger-happy either). </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
DEKMStephens 10/09/21 10:02:41 PM #9:	Yeah it is a bit unfortunate in some ways, I think if we were a month later into vaccinations we would be in a better position to pursue the change in strategy. I suspect the government is getting some pressure to have Auckland open for Christmas. --- ----- ------- <cite>DEKMStephens posted [p:958877739] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Yeah it is a bit unfortunate in some ways, I think if we were a month later into vaccinations we would be in a better position to pursue the change in strategy. I suspect the government is getting some pressure to have Auckland open for Christmas. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/09/21 10:03:29 PM #10:	DEKMStephens posted... I think if we were a month later into vaccinations we would be in a better position to pursue the change in strategy. If only we'd been at the front of the queue for deliveries, huh? --- 1) This board is not for asking about or disputing Trumbles. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958877757] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>DEKMStephens posted... </cite> <quote>I think if we were a month later into vaccinations we would be in a better position to pursue the change in strategy.</quote>If only we'd been at the front of the queue for deliveries, huh? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ArkThompson 10/09/21 10:05:30 PM #11:	Trumble posted... If only we'd been at the front of the queue for deliveries, huh? Well, I'm sure ignoring Pfizer for 6 weeks helped https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/453023/national-questions-delay-over-government-pfizer-meeting <cite>ArkThompson posted [p:958877801] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Trumble posted... </cite> <quote>If only we'd been at the front of the queue for deliveries, huh?</quote>Well, I'm sure ignoring Pfizer for 6 weeks helped https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/453023/national-questions-delay-over-government-pfizer-meeting </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/09/21 10:08:23 PM #12:	ArkThompson posted... Well, I'm sure ignoring Pfizer for 6 weeks helped https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/453023/national-questions-delay-over-government-pfizer-meeting My understanding - and to be clear, I have NOT looked super closely into this matter - is that at the time, there was no particular reason to think Pfizer was a much stronger contender than the many other companies saying they had vaccines in the works (which there were a lot of, but only a small number are actually getting anywhere). Assuming that's the truth, I wouldn't be holding that particular thing against them. What I see as more concerning is that, despite only having an initial order for 1.5m doses, they decided to go all-in on Pfizer the moment it got approval, instead of continuing to push for approval (and by extension, delivery) of at least AstraZeneca as well, for which they had an initial order (still sitting unclaimed) of enough doses for the entire population. Yes, it's a bit less effective, but people vaccinated with a less-effective vaccine are still in a much, MUCH better position than people who are still waiting for their first dose of a more-effective one if they catch the virus; and a booster could always have been given later. --- 1) This board is not for asking about or disputing Trumbles. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958877862] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>ArkThompson posted... </cite> <quote>Well, I'm sure ignoring Pfizer for 6 weeks helped https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/453023/national-questions-delay-over-government-pfizer-meeting</quote> My understanding - and to be clear, I have NOT looked super closely into this matter - is that at the time, there was no particular reason to think Pfizer was a much stronger contender than the many other companies saying they had vaccines in the works (which there were a lot of, but only a small number are actually getting anywhere). Assuming that's the truth, I wouldn't be holding that particular thing against them. What I see as more concerning is that, despite only having an initial order for 1.5m doses, they decided to go all-in on Pfizer the moment it got approval, instead of continuing to push for approval (and by extension, delivery) of at least AstraZeneca as well, for which they had an initial order (still sitting unclaimed) of enough doses for the entire population. Yes, it's a bit less effective, but people vaccinated with a less-effective vaccine are still in a much, MUCH better position than people who are still waiting for their first dose of a more-effective one if they catch the virus; and a booster could always have been given later. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/10/21 3:54:51 PM #13:	Looks like at least one of our experts here (and not the Youtube/Facebook kind, this guy is actually one of the top modellers for the government's covid efforts) thinks the same. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/453295/covid-19-case-numbers-could-soon-surpass-100-a-day-expert --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958898250] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Looks like at least one of our experts here (and not the Youtube/Facebook kind, this guy is actually one of the top modellers for the government's covid efforts) thinks the same. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/453295/covid-19-case-numbers-could-soon-surpass-100-a-day-expert </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Arcanine2009 10/11/21 4:18:20 AM #14:	how strict is it over there in terms of going out to restaurants, hums, theaters? I understand people would go crazy. --- Less is more. Everything you want, isn't everything you need. <cite>Arcanine2009 posted [p:958917643] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>how strict is it over there in terms of going out to restaurants, hums, theaters? I understand people would go crazy. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Sphyx 10/11/21 4:55:31 AM #15:	We started freaking out over a case in the BOP, which turned out to be a negative case. It COULD very well still go bad for us, but i doubt it will get Australia bad. --- You're so vain, You probably think this sig is about you. <cite>Sphyx posted [p:958918022] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>We started freaking out over a case in the BOP, which turned out to be a negative case. It COULD very well still go bad for us, but i doubt it will get Australia bad. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/11/21 4:59:50 AM #16:	Arcanine2009 posted... how strict is it over there in terms of going out to restaurants, hums, theaters? I understand people would go crazy. Restrictions have been a bit all-over-the-place lately, but right now it depends on what part of the country you're in, with three different settings: Northland, and about half of Waikato - Under a snap Alert Level 3 lockdown. Stay at home orders in effect, at this stage set to expire at 11:59 PM this coming Thursday, though could be extended (the Waikato one was originally meant to end tonight and the Northland one tomorrow, but both were extended earlier today). Click-and-collect / takeaways are allowed, but only essential services (eg. grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations) can have customers enter the premises. Limitations on allowed recreational activites though not a total ban. Masks mandatory in pretty much any indoor place you're allowed to be other than your own home / vehicle. Waikato has been in this state for about a week, Northland has for about half a week. Auckland - Under a long-term Alert Level 3 lockdown (they've been at either Level 3 or the even-stricter Level 4 since mid-August), on "phase 1" of reopening. Mostly the same as above, except that social meetups between two households, socially distanced and outdoors, are allowed. They're also working on reopening schools, but have delayed this. Everywhere else, including the rest of Waikato - Under long-term Alert Level 2 restrictions. This is pretty much in line with what most of the world has had for the last year - limits on gathering sizes, mandatory masking in many settings, etc, but it's not a lockdown. (Level 1 for the record, is almost life-as-normal except for a very small number of situations with mandatory masks. Since June last year, the majority of the time has been spent with the entire country at Level 1, until mid-August this year when Delta finally hit us.) Aside from Northland and Waikato, there were a handful of cases earlier in this outbreak in Wellington - the entire country was under Level 4 restrictions at the time - and a single case in Palmerston North that's currently still sick (and recently was admitted to hospital), but is now quarantined doesn't appear to have spread the infection at all, so that area remains at Level 2. And yeah, as Sphyx mentions, a very likely false positive in BOP (I don't think it's 100% confirmed as such yet - in particular the locations of interest for it are still listed - but it's looking very, very likely to be false positive). --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958918060] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Arcanine2009 posted... </cite> <quote>how strict is it over there in terms of going out to restaurants, hums, theaters? I understand people would go crazy.</quote> Restrictions have been a bit all-over-the-place lately, but right now it depends on what part of the country you're in, with three different settings: Northland, and about half of Waikato - Under a snap Alert Level 3 lockdown. Stay at home orders in effect, at this stage set to expire at 11:59 PM this coming Thursday, though could be extended (the Waikato one was originally meant to end tonight and the Northland one tomorrow, but both were extended earlier today). Click-and-collect / takeaways are allowed, but only essential services (eg. grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations) can have customers enter the premises. Limitations on allowed recreational activites though not a total ban. Masks mandatory in pretty much any indoor place you're allowed to be other than your own home / vehicle. Waikato has been in this state for about a week, Northland has for about half a week. Auckland - Under a long-term Alert Level 3 lockdown (they've been at either Level 3 or the even-stricter Level 4 since mid-August), on "phase 1" of reopening. Mostly the same as above, except that social meetups between two households, socially distanced and outdoors, are allowed. They're also working on reopening schools, but have delayed this. Everywhere else, including the rest of Waikato - Under long-term Alert Level 2 restrictions. This is pretty much in line with what most of the world has had for the last year - limits on gathering sizes, mandatory masking in many settings, etc, but it's not a lockdown. (Level 1 for the record, is almost life-as-normal except for a very small number of situations with mandatory masks. Since June last year, the majority of the time has been spent with the entire country at Level 1, until mid-August this year when Delta finally hit us.) Aside from Northland and Waikato, there were a handful of cases earlier in this outbreak in Wellington - the entire country was under Level 4 restrictions at the time - and a single case in Palmerston North that's currently still sick (and recently was admitted to hospital), but is now quarantined doesn't appear to have spread the infection at all, so that area remains at Level 2. And yeah, as Sphyx mentions, a very likely false positive in BOP (I don't think it's 100% confirmed as such yet - in particular the locations of interest for it are still listed - but it's looking very, very likely to be false positive). </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Ser_Jaker 10/11/21 5:03:54 AM #17:	the sooner you all get vaccinated and cases inevitably skyrocket the better off you'll be. Covid zero and strict lockdown aren't the way forward and people are going to have accept that everyone is essentially going to get covid and lots of people will die vaxxed or unvaxxed. The people who are still terrified are welcome to remain in the basement but we just keep enforcing lockdowns longterm --- "A human destiny, but nothing human inside..... What will be left of me when I`m dead?... There was nothing when I lived..." <cite>Ser_Jaker posted [p:958918101] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote> the sooner you all get vaccinated and cases inevitably skyrocket the better off you'll be. Covid zero and strict lockdown aren't the way forward and people are going to have accept that everyone is essentially going to get covid and lots of people will die vaxxed or unvaxxed. The people who are still terrified are welcome to remain in the basement but we just keep enforcing lockdowns longterm </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/11/21 5:04:32 AM #18:	Sphyx posted... It COULD very well still go bad for us, but i doubt it will get Australia bad. I can't say I share your optimism here, unless you're meaning something along the lines of "we'll be better off than NSW, in the same way NSW is better off than Victoria" (ie: somewhat lower numbers but still on a similar order of magnitude). Aside from the anti-vaxx protests in all three, NSW's downfall was being too slow to act. Vic's was being too soft restrictions-wise, as well as having already eroded far more public support for elimination than the others. My gut feeling is that NZ's is going to be the softness with which they're handling rulebreakers. --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958918104] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Sphyx posted... </cite> <quote>It COULD very well still go bad for us, but i doubt it will get Australia bad.</quote>I can't say I share your optimism here, unless you're meaning something along the lines of "we'll be better off than NSW, in the same way NSW is better off than Victoria" (ie: somewhat lower numbers but still on a similar order of magnitude). Aside from the anti-vaxx protests in all three, NSW's downfall was being too slow to act. Vic's was being too soft restrictions-wise, as well as having already eroded far more public support for elimination than the others. My gut feeling is that NZ's is going to be the softness with which they're handling rulebreakers. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
008Zulu 10/11/21 5:04:35 AM #19:	Trumble posted... Antivaxxers are about 2% of the population if that here, not a significant portion. I'd post the news link about only 1 person showing up to an antivax protest in New Zealand back in August, but this website has a shitty character limit. --- If you protest, it's because you feel your voice isn't being heard. If you riot, it's because you feel your voice is being ignored. <cite>008Zulu posted [p:958918105] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Trumble posted... </cite> <quote>Antivaxxers are about 2% of the population if that here, not a significant portion.</quote>I'd post the news link about only 1 person showing up to an antivax protest in New Zealand back in August, but this website has a shitty character limit. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/11/21 5:05:16 AM #20:	008Zulu posted... I'd post the news link about only 1 person showing up to an antivax protest in New Zealand back in August, but this website has a shitty character limit. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/08/covid-19-one-person-shows-up-at-anti-lockdown-protest-in-auckland.html --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958918112] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>008Zulu posted... </cite> <quote>I'd post the news link about only 1 person showing up to an antivax protest in New Zealand back in August, but this website has a shitty character limit.</quote> https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/08/covid-19-one-person-shows-up-at-anti-lockdown-protest-in-auckland.html </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Sphyx 10/11/21 5:19:22 AM #21:	It isn't optimism, more a scathing indictment of how badly things have gone over the ditch. --- You're so vain, You probably think this sig is about you. <cite>Sphyx posted [p:958918272] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>It isn't optimism, more a scathing indictment of how badly things have gone over the ditch. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ALIEN_WORK2HOP 10/11/21 5:25:48 AM #22:	did NZ also sleep on getting vaccines like Australia did or is it working out better there? I would be pissed if lockdowns were still necessary this late into the pandemic here. --- If you have selfish, ignorant citizens, you're going to get selfish, ignorant leaders. <cite>ALIEN_WORK2HOP posted [p:958918325] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>did NZ also sleep on getting vaccines like Australia did or is it working out better there? I would be pissed if lockdowns were still necessary this late into the pandemic here. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/11/21 5:50:01 AM #23:	ALIEN_WORK2HOP posted... did NZ also sleep on getting vaccines like Australia did or is it working out better there? I would be pissed if lockdowns were still necessary this late into the pandemic here. NZ is the one developed country in the world that did an even worse job of that than Australia. Our government had pre-orders with a few vaccines, then as soon as the first one got approval, they were like "nah, forget the others, we'll just go all in on this one" and ordered more - at this point of course, joining the queue far behind anyone else. Then they said there's "nothing they could do to hurry it up"... until Australia did the vaccine swap thing and then suddenly within a week, NZ found its own opportunity to do the same. Our government are also - so far, at least - refusing to go with a "lift restrictions only for vaccinated people" approach; instead preferring to keep everyone restricted until the vaccine rate is to their liking. --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958918550] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>ALIEN_WORK2HOP posted... </cite> <quote>did NZ also sleep on getting vaccines like Australia did or is it working out better there? I would be pissed if lockdowns were still necessary this late into the pandemic here.</quote>NZ is the one developed country in the world that did an even worse job of that than Australia. Our government had pre-orders with a few vaccines, then as soon as the first one got approval, they were like "nah, forget the others, we'll just go all in on this one" and ordered more - at this point of course, joining the queue far behind anyone else. Then they said there's "nothing they could do to hurry it up"... until Australia did the vaccine swap thing and then suddenly within a week, NZ found its own opportunity to do the same. Our government are also - so far, at least - refusing to go with a "lift restrictions only for vaccinated people" approach; instead preferring to keep everyone restricted until the vaccine rate is to their liking. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Sphyx 10/11/21 6:13:41 AM #24:	To be fair, 'lift restrictions only for vaccinated people' would be a shit of a thing to enforce. --- You're so vain, You probably think this sig is about you. <cite>Sphyx posted [p:958918793] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>To be fair, 'lift restrictions only for vaccinated people' would be a shit of a thing to enforce. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/11/21 6:17:01 AM #25:	Sphyx posted... To be fair, 'lift restrictions only for vaccinated people' would be a shit of a thing to enforce. True, and in fairness, it's not like our existing rules have any real enforcement behind them. The harshest case I can think of was LK's two week jail sentence, of which she only actually served one, for that quarantine escape with her kids back last year. (I assume that since the media were happy to quote Billy TK referring to her as "LK", using the name "LK" isn't a violation of the name suppression order. I'd further assume that order probably has no power on an American site anyway, and I do know her actual name, but eh... repeating it here doesn't achieve much.) --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958918825] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Sphyx posted... </cite> <quote>To be fair, 'lift restrictions only for vaccinated people' would be a shit of a thing to enforce.</quote> True, and in fairness, it's not like our existing rules have any real enforcement behind them. The harshest case I can think of was LK's two week jail sentence, of which she only actually served one, for that quarantine escape with her kids back last year. (I assume that since the media were happy to quote Billy TK referring to her as "LK", using the name "LK" isn't a violation of the name suppression order. I'd further assume that order probably has no power on an American site anyway, and I do know her actual name, but eh... repeating it here doesn't achieve much.) </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/11/21 6:45:16 AM #26:	My gut feeling now is that we'll break our existing record for most cases in one day, tomorrow. But it'll be in the 90s, not 100+. Thursday will then be our first 100+ day. (Wednesday will be a bit of a dip - perhaps in the 50s or low 60s.) --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958919129] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>My gut feeling now is that we'll break our existing record for most cases in one day, tomorrow. But it'll be in the 90s, not 100+. Thursday will then be our first 100+ day. (Wednesday will be a bit of a dip - perhaps in the 50s or low 60s.) </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ReignFury 10/11/21 6:48:24 AM #27:	Lockdowns are unpopular but at least you guys will have saved countless lives before hitting those vaccination targets. --- Occasionally s***posting in a dead gaming forum <cite>ReignFury posted [p:958919160] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Lockdowns are unpopular but at least you guys will have saved countless lives before hitting those vaccination targets. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/11/21 6:57:31 AM #28:	ReignFury posted... Lockdowns are unpopular but at least you guys will have saved countless lives before hitting those vaccination targets. In general yeah, but in regards to this specific outbreak, the lockdowns are only necessary because such a poor job has been done with the vaccine rollout until extremely recently (as in, more recently than when this outbreak started). The April(ish) and August ones last year were absolutely necessary, the February/March ones this year weren't necessary in hindsight but there was no way in hell anyone could've known that at the time, especially with it being the Alpha variant which we had no prior experience with... but this one was completely avoidable, had they not decided to order more Pfizer instead of continuing to pursue the other options we had pre-orders on (and thus completed the rollout much sooner). --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958919247] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>ReignFury posted... </cite> <quote>Lockdowns are unpopular but at least you guys will have saved countless lives before hitting those vaccination targets.</quote> In general yeah, but in regards to this specific outbreak, the lockdowns are only necessary because such a poor job has been done with the vaccine rollout until extremely recently (as in, more recently than when this outbreak started). The April(ish) and August ones last year were absolutely necessary, the February/March ones this year weren't necessary in hindsight but there was no way in hell anyone could've known that at the time, especially with it being the Alpha variant which we had no prior experience with... but this one was completely avoidable, had they not decided to order more Pfizer instead of continuing to pursue the other options we had pre-orders on (and thus completed the rollout much sooner). </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/11/21 4:37:02 PM #29:	Trumble posted... And yeah, as Sphyx mentions, a very likely false positive in BOP (I don't think it's 100% confirmed as such yet - in particular the locations of interest for it are still listed - but it's looking very, very likely to be false positive). ^ This has now been confirmed as not infectious (not necesserially a false positive - this could also mean a historical case, ie: they've had the virus in the past and have recovered, but the test was able to pick up remnants of it - I assume we'll find out in the 1PM update today what the situation is), and the locations of interest removed accordingly. So, yeah. Back to this outbreak having so far only reached Auckland, Northland, Waikato, Palmerston North and Wellington; with PN only having a single quarantined case, and Wellington's transmission having been stamped out and all cases recovered now. (Actually, for that matter, Northland has no confirmed cases residing here now, but one confirmed + one probable case who travelled around the region and are refusing to comply with contact tracing, so very possible there are more out there. Only Auckland and Waikato have confirmed, ongoing transmission at this point in time.) --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958933277] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Trumble posted... </cite> <quote>And yeah, as Sphyx mentions, a very likely false positive in BOP (I don't think it's 100% confirmed as such yet - in particular the locations of interest for it are still listed - but it's looking very, very likely to be false positive).</quote> ^ This has now been confirmed as not infectious (not necesserially a false positive - this could also mean a historical case, ie: they've had the virus in the past and have recovered, but the test was able to pick up remnants of it - I assume we'll find out in the 1PM update today what the situation is), and the locations of interest removed accordingly. So, yeah. Back to this outbreak having so far only reached Auckland, Northland, Waikato, Palmerston North and Wellington; with PN only having a single quarantined case, and Wellington's transmission having been stamped out and all cases recovered now. (Actually, for that matter, Northland has no confirmed cases residing here now, but one confirmed + one probable case who travelled around the region and are refusing to comply with contact tracing, so very possible there are more out there. Only Auckland and Waikato have confirmed, ongoing transmission at this point in time.) </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lvaneede 10/11/21 4:41:25 PM #30:	Its like how well we were doing in Australia until it started spreading in Sydney a few months ago and then spread to Melbourne. Im so glad to be in Western Australia where we have never had a major outbreak. Not looking forward to when borders eventually reopen. --- Fact: Nintendo is the best, there is no point denying it. <cite>Lvaneede posted [p:958933401] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Its like how well we were doing in Australia until it started spreading in Sydney a few months ago and then spread to Melbourne. Im so glad to be in Western Australia where we have never had a major outbreak. Not looking forward to when borders eventually reopen. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Ivany2008 10/11/21 4:43:12 PM #31:	I know here in Newfoundland we had maybe 10 cases for a few months. The moment we re-opened that jumped up to like 40. I remember clearly that as soon as we opened up, 2 college kids went on a weekend trip to Halifax, Nova Scotia. Got the disease, didn't tell anyone about it, and had a fucking party infecting one of the guys moms and like 20 other people. Another lady came home for a funeral, contracted the disease, and still went to see her deceased mother. Would have been a more intelligent part on the funeral home to give her a private wake, but no... public funeral, another 30-40 people infected. <cite>Ivany2008 posted [p:958933457] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>I know here in Newfoundland we had maybe 10 cases for a few months. The moment we re-opened that jumped up to like 40. I remember clearly that as soon as we opened up, 2 college kids went on a weekend trip to Halifax, Nova Scotia. Got the disease, didn't tell anyone about it, and had a fucking party infecting one of the guys moms and like 20 other people. Another lady came home for a funeral, contracted the disease, and still went to see her deceased mother. Would have been a more intelligent part on the funeral home to give her a private wake, but no... public funeral, another 30-40 people infected. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/11/21 4:43:19 PM #32:	Lvaneede posted... Im so glad to be in Western Australia where we have never had a major outbreak. Not looking forward to when borders eventually reopen. If y'all use this time to get your vaccination rate up, instead of making the same mistake NZ did of insisting "oh we don't have an outbreak so we can piss around", the reopening will not be the big problem it has been for many other places. Most of Australia still have a chance to get this right - don't screw it up like us and two of your states (plus ACT) did. EDIT: On a side note it amuses me that "ACT" is both an Australian state and an NZ political party (probably the biggest third-party right now, tbh). --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958933461] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Lvaneede posted... </cite> <quote>Im so glad to be in Western Australia where we have never had a major outbreak. Not looking forward to when borders eventually reopen.</quote> If y'all use this time to get your vaccination rate up, instead of making the same mistake NZ did of insisting "oh we don't have an outbreak so we can piss around", the reopening will not be the big problem it has been for many other places. Most of Australia still have a chance to get this right - don't screw it up like us and two of your states (plus ACT) did. EDIT: On a side note it amuses me that "ACT" is both an Australian state and an NZ political party (probably the biggest third-party right now, tbh). </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/11/21 5:14:33 PM #33:	Found this "game" that puts people in charge of the response (from an NZ point of view, and starting about a week back from today). https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/453357/game-puts-players-in-charge-of-covid-19-response I'm going to write this post as I play. Note that my comments on what I'd do IRL (rather than while restrained by the options the game offers) are from a point of view of seeing each week independently, ie: not taking into account what the difference would be between my in-game action and would-be IRL actions for previous weeks. Week 1 - 29 new on the day / 250 total active cases. No data on where in the country they are, but from real-world and in-game alert level context I am guessing all in Auckland. I'm basically given the option of following what the government actually did recently, putting the entire country back to Level 4, open everything up, or do nothing (ie: keep restrictions as they already are). I expected it wouldn't be complex enough to eg. fine tune individual requirements like mask orders and that, but this outright seems shoehorned into "provide the government's actual option, a do nothing option, and a couple of really bad ones". I pick leaving things as they are. (My real life choice were I in that situation would have been to put Auckland to Level 4, but not all of NZ - or even better, some kind of "Level 3.5".) Week 2 - 97 new cases on the day / 718 total cases. Still no data on where in the country. This time I'm given no options relating to alert levels or similar restrictions whatsoever, instead I'm given options on how to approach vaccine passports. My options are to implement a government-run vaccine passport scheme to be required at large gatherings, to endorse privately-run such schemes, to ignore the issue altogether, or to explicitly ban them. It's a no-brainer to go with the strictest option here, of course. (Real life: I'd go even further and require them for leaving the house or having guests, other than during an emergency or for contactless delivery at all.) Businesses seem happy, small number of people want to protest, apparently people overseas are callign me a "nazi" and a "Democrat loser". Week 3 - 261 new cases / 1910 active cases. There's still nothing about where the cases are, so I'm presuming all in Auckland still despite the high numbers and that it'd be almost inevitable in reality that it'd slip out by this point. I notice at this point that the game is operating on the scale of week-to-week, not day-to-day, so I first go back and edit my previous points to refer to "Week 1" and "Week 2" rather than "Day 1" and "Day 8, which it skipped to for some reason". Today's question is about schools, I still have no options around alert levels / restrictions. My strictest option on schools is limiting groups to 10 students + mandatory masks for everyone + mandatory vaccinations for staff. The next option down drops the 10 student groups and reduces the mask requirement to those who are 12+; the next down from that is mask requirement for 12+ (and no other restrictions). And of course, the last option is reopen them pre-covid style. I go with the strictest option here. (IRL: I wouldn't go for the groups of 10, but would have the vaccine mandate for teachers and eligible students as well as the mandatory masking at all ages.) The public / education system reaction is negative, but mostly due to the groups of 10 part, which as noted would not have been a factor in how I'd actually respond. Week 4 - 645 new cases / 5059 active cases. Of interest is that it puts the % of population fully vaccinated on this date (which it sets as 25th October) at 48%. Needless to say, four weeks into me running the show there would be far, FAR stronger vaccine mandates than anything this game has given me the option of, so it's worth noting it's wildly inaccurate at this point to how I'd actually run things. The options I'm given are, finally, about alert levels / restrictions again. The game is getting a bit ridiculous at this point - the options I'm offered other than "just stay as-is" are the two extremes of going back to Level 1 or going to "Level 5" (with no detail on what that might actually entail, nor whether I am doing this for all of NZ or just Auckland - which I still don't know where exactly the cases are, though logically I would assume at this size it would have to have jumped the Auckland border by now), or to just be spiteful and... ban picnics nationwide? Yeah, at this point, it's very clear this is more focused on "pick exactly what the government actually does, or else we'll just get silly; we're making sure all other options are unrealistic or bad package-deals", and I'm going to stop playing here. (EDIT: I did actually try to pick a few options, now without really putting much thought into them, and it seems to just get more and more ridiculous. One of my options at one point was "bribe people with Lorde's new album". >_>) I like the concept, but it's clear that this particular implementation is half propaganda half comedy rather than serious, despite initially presenting itself as neither. --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958934369] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Found this "game" that puts people in charge of the response (from an NZ point of view, and starting about a week back from today). https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/453357/game-puts-players-in-charge-of-covid-19-response I'm going to write this post as I play. Note that my comments on what I'd do IRL (rather than while restrained by the options the game offers) are from a point of view of seeing each week independently, ie: not taking into account what the difference would be between my in-game action and would-be IRL actions for previous weeks. Week 1 - 29 new on the day / 250 total active cases. No data on where in the country they are, but from real-world and in-game alert level context I am guessing all in Auckland. I'm basically given the option of following what the government actually did recently, putting the entire country back to Level 4, open everything up, or do nothing (ie: keep restrictions as they already are). I expected it wouldn't be complex enough to eg. fine tune individual requirements like mask orders and that, but this outright seems shoehorned into "provide the government's actual option, a do nothing option, and a couple of really bad ones". I pick leaving things as they are. (My real life choice were I in that situation would have been to put Auckland to Level 4, but not all of NZ - or even better, some kind of "Level 3.5".) Week 2 - 97 new cases on the day / 718 total cases. Still no data on where in the country. This time I'm given no options relating to alert levels or similar restrictions whatsoever, instead I'm given options on how to approach vaccine passports. My options are to implement a government-run vaccine passport scheme to be required at large gatherings, to endorse privately-run such schemes, to ignore the issue altogether, or to explicitly ban them. It's a no-brainer to go with the strictest option here, of course. (Real life: I'd go even further and require them for leaving the house or having guests, other than during an emergency or for contactless delivery at all.) Businesses seem happy, small number of people want to protest, apparently people overseas are callign me a "nazi" and a "Democrat loser". Week 3 - 261 new cases / 1910 active cases. There's still nothing about where the cases are, so I'm presuming all in Auckland still despite the high numbers and that it'd be almost inevitable in reality that it'd slip out by this point. I notice at this point that the game is operating on the scale of week-to-week, not day-to-day, so I first go back and edit my previous points to refer to "Week 1" and "Week 2" rather than "Day 1" and "Day 8, which it skipped to for some reason". Today's question is about schools, I still have no options around alert levels / restrictions. My strictest option on schools is limiting groups to 10 students + mandatory masks for everyone + mandatory vaccinations for staff. The next option down drops the 10 student groups and reduces the mask requirement to those who are 12+; the next down from that is mask requirement for 12+ (and no other restrictions). And of course, the last option is reopen them pre-covid style. I go with the strictest option here. (IRL: I wouldn't go for the groups of 10, but would have the vaccine mandate for teachers and eligible students as well as the mandatory masking at all ages.) The public / education system reaction is negative, but mostly due to the groups of 10 part, which as noted would not have been a factor in how I'd actually respond. Week 4 - 645 new cases / 5059 active cases. Of interest is that it puts the % of population fully vaccinated on this date (which it sets as 25th October) at 48%. Needless to say, four weeks into me running the show there would be far, FAR stronger vaccine mandates than anything this game has given me the option of, so it's worth noting it's wildly inaccurate at this point to how I'd actually run things. The options I'm given are, finally, about alert levels / restrictions again. The game is getting a bit ridiculous at this point - the options I'm offered other than "just stay as-is" are the two extremes of going back to Level 1 or going to "Level 5" (with no detail on what that might actually entail, nor whether I am doing this for all of NZ or just Auckland - which I still don't know where exactly the cases are, though logically I would assume at this size it would have to have jumped the Auckland border by now), or to just be spiteful and... ban picnics nationwide? Yeah, at this point, it's very clear this is more focused on "pick exactly what the government actually does, or else we'll just get silly; we're making sure all other options are unrealistic or bad package-deals", and I'm going to stop playing here. (EDIT: I did actually try to pick a few options, now without really putting much thought into them, and it seems to just get more and more ridiculous. One of my options at one point was "bribe people with Lorde's new album". >_>) I like the concept, but it's clear that this particular implementation is half propaganda half comedy rather than serious, despite initially presenting itself as neither. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/11/21 8:04:43 PM #34:	Trumble posted... My gut feeling now is that we'll break our existing record for most cases in one day, tomorrow. Nope, only in the 40s today. --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:958939238] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Trumble posted... </cite> <quote>My gut feeling now is that we'll break our existing record for most cases in one day, tomorrow.</quote>Nope, only in the 40s today. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/13/21 8:04:59 PM #35:	Well, my attempts to predict exact days were not even close, but I'm still standing by the overall 100 by end of week (on or before Sunday) prediction. 71 today, so definitely trending in that direction. --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:959006409] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Well, my attempts to predict exact days were not even close, but I'm still standing by the overall 100 by end of week (on or before Sunday) prediction. 71 today, so definitely trending in that direction. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Sphyx 10/13/21 8:08:14 PM #36:	I'm taking the other side if that bet, but it really looks like it could go either way. --- You're so vain, You probably think this sig is about you. <cite>Sphyx posted [p:959006491] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>I'm taking the other side if that bet, but it really looks like it could go either way. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/13/21 8:13:11 PM #37:	Sphyx posted... I'm taking the other side if that bet, but it really looks like it could go either way. You reckon "won't hit it" or just "won't be this week"? --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:959006625] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Sphyx posted... </cite> <quote>I'm taking the other side if that bet, but it really looks like it could go either way.</quote>You reckon "won't hit it" or just "won't be this week"? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Sphyx 10/13/21 9:06:56 PM #38:	Trumble posted... You reckon "won't hit it" or just "won't be this week"? Not actually confident in this, but I'm going to live dangerously and go with "won't hit". --- You're so vain, You probably think this sig is about you. <cite>Sphyx posted [p:959008163] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Trumble posted... </cite> <quote>You reckon "won't hit it" or just "won't be this week"?</quote>Not actually confident in this, but I'm going to live dangerously and go with "won't hit". </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/13/21 9:30:48 PM #39:	Sphyx posted... Not actually confident in this, but I'm going to live dangerously and go with "won't hit". I honestly can't see any situation in which we never hit 100+ daily cases. Simply given that case numbers always lag a bit behind when the infections actually occurred, I would believe we've already had the exposure events (and resulting infections) that will make up our first 100+ day, it's just a matter of when they come through in testing now. Even if we were to go into a total lockdown (ie: no one leaves the house for any reason whatsoever - obviously impossible in practice) with 100% compliance, for that reason I'd still think we'd hit it. On the other hand, depending on how they manage it going forward I could see the possibility of never hitting 200 in a day, but I certianly wouldn't rely on it. Realistically though, I think we're going to see a peak at around 400 - 500 daily cases. Keep in mind before panicking, that the high vaccination rates should mean firstly - deaths / serious illness are relatively rare, and secondly - it'll be mostly people who've chosen that fate via refusing the vaccine. --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:959008808] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Sphyx posted... </cite> <quote>Not actually confident in this, but I'm going to live dangerously and go with "won't hit".</quote> I honestly can't see any situation in which we never hit 100+ daily cases. Simply given that case numbers always lag a bit behind when the infections actually occurred, I would believe we've already had the exposure events (and resulting infections) that will make up our first 100+ day, it's just a matter of when they come through in testing now. Even if we were to go into a total lockdown (ie: no one leaves the house for any reason whatsoever - obviously impossible in practice) with 100% compliance, for that reason I'd still think we'd hit it. On the other hand, depending on how they manage it going forward I could see the possibility of never hitting 200 in a day, but I certianly wouldn't rely on it. Realistically though, I think we're going to see a peak at around 400 - 500 daily cases. Keep in mind before panicking, that the high vaccination rates should mean firstly - deaths / serious illness are relatively rare, and secondly - it'll be mostly people who've chosen that fate via refusing the vaccine. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
kingdrake2 10/13/21 9:33:36 PM #40:	Trumble posted... Keep in mind before panicking, that the high vaccination rates should mean firstly - deaths / serious illness are relatively rare, and secondly - it'll be mostly people who've chosen that fate via refusing the vaccine. last part is especially true. some people are making a bad decision that could give em a chance to live from it. didn't help with ronald's brainwashing that masks and vaccine are bad. --- Explorers In The Further Regions Of Experience, demons to some, Angels To Others: Pinhead <cite>kingdrake2 posted [p:959008880] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Trumble posted...</cite> <quote>Keep in mind before panicking, that the high vaccination rates should mean firstly - deaths / serious illness are relatively rare, and secondly - it'll be mostly people who've chosen that fate via refusing the vaccine.</quote> last part is especially true. some people are making a bad decision that could give em a chance to live from it. didn't help with ronald's brainwashing that masks and vaccine are bad.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
JimmyFraska 10/13/21 9:34:31 PM #41:	100 is not a lot, sounds like nz is still doing great <cite>JimmyFraska posted [p:959008896] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>100 is not a lot, sounds like nz is still doing great </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Sphyx 10/13/21 9:59:52 PM #42:	Also, people who can't take the vaccine for genuine health reasons, and potentially, young children. Looks like it's still climbing. 71 new cases. Could be cutting it pretty close. --- You're so vain, You probably think this sig is about you. <cite>Sphyx posted [p:959009638] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Also, people who can't take the vaccine for genuine health reasons, and potentially, young children. Looks like it's still climbing. 71 new cases. Could be cutting it pretty close. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/13/21 10:01:17 PM #43:	JimmyFraska posted... 100 is not a lot, sounds like nz is still doing great You remember how at one point your country had zero, and then it got in, and slowly started to climb; rather than instantly jumping to insane amounts? It's been about two months since we had zero cases here. And parts of NZ (and for the first couple of weeks since cases showed up again, all of NZ) are literally still having lockdowns. In late 2021. That's the only reason the numbers are so low. --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:959009689] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>JimmyFraska posted... </cite> <quote>100 is not a lot, sounds like nz is still doing great</quote> You remember how at one point your country had zero, and then it got in, and slowly started to climb; rather than instantly jumping to insane amounts? It's been about two months since we had zero cases here. And parts of NZ (and for the first couple of weeks since cases showed up again, all of NZ) are literally still having lockdowns. In late 2021. That's the only reason the numbers are so low. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/13/21 10:03:17 PM #44:	Sphyx posted... Also, people who can't take the vaccine for genuine health reasons, and potentially, young children. The former is yeah, a valid point... but I kinda feel like we can't let such a small number hold us back either. They're suggesting that it's probably on the order of about 100 people in the entire country. As for young children - while it's true they can't get vaccinated yet (and I'm sure that will change soon), looking at Ministry of Health statistics from our current outbreak, it looks like their risk is not much worse than that for fully-vaccinated adults anyway: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-case-demographics Bit higher on the case numbers (though amount of exposure has to be considered as a factor here - which does overall murk up the reliability of case numbers), but hospitalization rate seems similar, if not lower. And really, hospitalization rate is really what we're looking at going forward - we expect to see cases, but serious illness should be far less thanks to the vaccine. --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:959009739] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Sphyx posted... </cite> <quote>Also, people who can't take the vaccine for genuine health reasons, and potentially, young children.</quote>The former is yeah, a valid point... but I kinda feel like we can't let such a small number hold us back either. They're suggesting that it's probably on the order of about 100 people in the entire country. As for young children - while it's true they can't get vaccinated yet (and I'm sure that will change soon), looking at Ministry of Health statistics from our current outbreak, it looks like their risk is not much worse than that for fully-vaccinated adults anyway: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-case-demographics Bit higher on the case numbers (though amount of exposure has to be considered as a factor here - which does overall murk up the reliability of case numbers), but hospitalization rate seems similar, if not lower. And really, hospitalization rate is really what we're looking at going forward - we expect to see cases, but serious illness should be far less thanks to the vaccine. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
JimmyFraska 10/13/21 10:33:38 PM #45:	Trumble posted... You remember how at one point your country had zero, and then it got in, and slowly started to climb; rather than instantly jumping to insane amounts? It's been about two months since we had zero cases here. And parts of NZ (and for the first couple of weeks since cases showed up again, all of NZ) are literally still having lockdowns. In late 2021. The city where most of the cases are, has been in non-stop lockdown for 10 weeks now (though the lockdown was made a little bit less restrictive after the first 5 weeks, then loosened up slightly more about a week ago, but is still overall a clear lockdown - in fact our deputy PM bragged at a press conference today about New Zealand having the strictest covid restrictions in the world right now). That's the only reason the numbers are so low. we had like 100 day 1 i say keep it locked down bro <cite>JimmyFraska posted [p:959010526] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Trumble posted... </cite> <quote>You remember how at one point your country had zero, and then it got in, and slowly started to climb; rather than instantly jumping to insane amounts? It's been about two months since we had zero cases here. And parts of NZ (and for the first couple of weeks since cases showed up again, all of NZ) are literally still having lockdowns. In late 2021. The city where most of the cases are, has been in non-stop lockdown for 10 weeks now (though the lockdown was made a little bit less restrictive after the first 5 weeks, then loosened up slightly more about a week ago, but is still overall a clear lockdown - in fact our deputy PM bragged at a press conference today about New Zealand having the strictest covid restrictions in the world right now). That's the only reason the numbers are so low.</quote>we had like 100 day 1 i say keep it locked down bro </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/13/21 10:46:02 PM #46:	JimmyFraska posted... i say keep it locked down bro Not feasible. Businesses are collapsing, compliance is rapidly dropping off, and people are just about fed up with it at this point. Especially in Northland, where a lockdown has been extended twice without a single case in the region, nor any change in circumstances, because "we're not yet sure there aren't any cases there" (and yet we're in harsher restrictions than Auckland, which is where all 71 of today's cases, and 1736 of the 1790 total in this outbreak, reside). Not even the first time - they held us in Level 4 longer at the start of this outbreak because of a very, very vague "might be" cases as well. Anywhere other than Auckland or Wellington, they don't give a shit and will gladly lock down because the votes they win by seeming "sympathetic" towards the "disadvantaged rural populations" from people in those cities outweigh the effects it actually has locally. Meanwhile, Auckland's getting loosened up despite ever-climbing cases, and - you know how I mentioned that they held us in Level 4 in Northland longer at one point? They let Wellington move down to Level 3 despite actual known cases there at the same time. It's to the point where personally I don't even know if I can be bothered doing the right thing anymore (besides getting my second shot, which - short of a better shot popping up overnight - I'm still going to do pretty much no matter what), because it just seems that those of us who do the right thing are the ones who keep getting locked down at Wellington's whims to impress their Auckland and Wellington based voters, all while those who break the rules are given the "be kind" treatment and pampered and protected by the government. >_> I can definitely see why faith in the response is eroding big-time. --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:959010848] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>JimmyFraska posted... </cite> <quote>i say keep it locked down bro</quote>Not feasible. Businesses are collapsing, compliance is rapidly dropping off, and people are just about fed up with it at this point. Especially in Northland, where a lockdown has been extended twice without a single case in the region, nor any change in circumstances, because "we're not yet sure there aren't any cases there" (and yet we're in harsher restrictions than Auckland, which is where all 71 of today's cases, and 1736 of the 1790 total in this outbreak, reside). Not even the first time - they held us in Level 4 longer at the start of this outbreak because of a very, very vague "might be" cases as well. Anywhere other than Auckland or Wellington, they don't give a shit and will gladly lock down because the votes they win by seeming "sympathetic" towards the "disadvantaged rural populations" from people in those cities outweigh the effects it actually has locally. Meanwhile, Auckland's getting loosened up despite ever-climbing cases, and - you know how I mentioned that they held us in Level 4 in Northland longer at one point? They let Wellington move down to Level 3 despite actual known cases there at the same time. It's to the point where personally I don't even know if I can be bothered doing the right thing anymore (besides getting my second shot, which - short of a better shot popping up overnight - I'm still going to do pretty much no matter what), because it just seems that those of us who do the right thing are the ones who keep getting locked down at Wellington's whims to impress their Auckland and Wellington based voters, all while those who break the rules are given the "be kind" treatment and pampered and protected by the government. >_> I can definitely see why faith in the response is eroding big-time. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
JimmyFraska 10/13/21 11:49:01 PM #48:	it will absolutely go over that 100 line if you dont stay locked down <cite>JimmyFraska posted [p:959012497] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>it will absolutely go over that 100 line if you dont stay locked down </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/14/21 12:27:40 AM #49:	JimmyFraska posted... it will absolutely go over that 100 line if you dont stay locked down It will absolutely go over that 100 line whether we stay locked down or not. Lockdowns are not a miracle cure that stops everything; they're one measure that can help reduce transmission. If you're familiar with the R value - that currently sits somewhere between 1.2 and 1.3 by the Ministry of Health's estimate. That's with lockdown in effect in all locations currently known to have cases plus in one further entire region that doesn't have a single known case. But once again - this isn't 2020 anymore; raw case numbers are now a trivia point more than anything else. Hospitalizations and deaths are what matter - and the fact that, according to those MoH statistics I posted earlier, only 4% of cases (and 2% of hospitalizations) are among the vaccinated, it looks to me like there's a very VERY easy way people can prevent themself from ending up as one of those, no lockdown needed. --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:959013402] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>JimmyFraska posted... </cite> <quote>it will absolutely go over that 100 line if you dont stay locked down</quote> It will absolutely go over that 100 line whether we stay locked down or not. Lockdowns are not a miracle cure that stops everything; they're one measure that can help reduce transmission. If you're familiar with the R value - that currently sits somewhere between 1.2 and 1.3 by the Ministry of Health's estimate. That's with lockdown in effect in all locations currently known to have cases plus in one further entire region that doesn't have a single known case. But once again - this isn't 2020 anymore; raw case numbers are now a trivia point more than anything else. Hospitalizations and deaths are what matter - and the fact that, according to those MoH statistics I posted earlier, only 4% of cases (and 2% of hospitalizations) are among the vaccinated, it looks to me like there's a very VERY easy way people can prevent themself from ending up as one of those, no lockdown needed. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Trumble 10/14/21 2:22:28 AM #50:	A very respectable expert modeller reckons we'll get 150 cases per day by November, unless Auckland goes back to Level 4 lockdown. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-level-4-lockdown-now-or-expect-150-cases-a-day-by-november-expert-says/ My thoughts would've been we'd have hit it much sooner than that, so it's actually kinda reassuring to hear him think it'll take a bit longer. --- As you change your Trumble, the Trumble on all your posts will be updated to your new Trumble. <cite>Trumble posted [p:959015396] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>A very respectable expert modeller reckons we'll get 150 cases per day by November, unless Auckland goes back to Level 4 lockdown. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-level-4-lockdown-now-or-expect-150-cases-a-day-by-november-expert-says/ My thoughts would've been we'd have hit it much sooner than that, so it's actually kinda reassuring to hear him think it'll take a bit longer. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Sphyx 10/14/21 4:43:24 AM #51:	Trumble posted... As for young children - while it's true they can't get vaccinated yet (and I'm sure that will change soon), looking at Ministry of Health statistics from our current outbreak, it looks like their risk is not much worse than that for fully-vaccinated adults anyway: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-case-demographics Delta changed the game once. It's very possible another variant could change it again. Probably best we don't presume to project how the virus will work long-term. --- You're so vain, You probably think this sig is about you. <cite>Sphyx posted [p:959017004] in By the end... [t:79703261]...</cite> <quote>Trumble posted... </cite> <quote>As for young children - while it's true they can't get vaccinated yet (and I'm sure that will change soon), looking at Ministry of Health statistics from our current outbreak, it looks like their risk is not much worse than that for fully-vaccinated adults anyway: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-case-demographics</quote>Delta changed the game once. It's very possible another variant could change it again. Probably best we don't presume to project how the virus will work long-term. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Current Events > By the end of next week, NZ will have its first day of >100 covid cases. (+) Yeah! (+)

Current Events > By the end of next week, NZ will have its first day of >100 covid cases.