Board 8 > 2019 Canadian Federal Election ~*~ LIVE ~*~

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Another Canadian election is upon us. After almost six weeks of campaigning it is time to vote. Below are the voting times. The good news is for the majority of the nation polls close at roughly the same time, except notable for Atlantic Canada which finishes 2 (2.5 for Newfoundland) hours before everyone else meaning we'll see some results before all polls are closed.

Time zone - Voting hours (local time)
Newfoundland - 8:30 a.m. 8:30 p.m.
Atlantic - 8:30 a.m. 8:30 p.m.
Eastern - 9:30 a.m. 9:30 p.m.
Central - 8:30 a.m. 8:30 p.m.
Mountain - 7:30 a.m. 7:30 p.m.
Pacific - 7:00 a.m. 7:00 p.m.

Note: Saskatchewan doesn't observe daylight savings so they're polling times will be 7:30-7:30. Some ridings may have different hours, particularly the ones which span multiple time-zones, check your voting card for confirmation.

Results: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2019/results/

First poll closes at 7pm Eastern, first results likely won't come in until 30-60 minutes later.
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charmander6000s 2019 Canadian Election Prediction

Newfoundland and Labrador
Number of Seats: 7
2015 Results: Liberals 7

In 2015 the Liberals swept the four Atlantic provinces. That will not happen again. Newfoundland and Labrador may be forgiving the Conservatives mistake of calling them irrelevant about a decade ago, but they are not in a position to win a seat just yet. The NDPs rise since the debates likely means they will win back St. Johns East and on a good day they may win the other St. Johns riding.

Prediction: Liberals 5, NDP 2

Prince Edward Island
Number of Seats: 4
2015 Results: Liberals 4

While I feel the Liberals will sweep PEI, it wont be in a dominant fashion. This will likely be the Greens best province in terms of popular vote and they could finish second in one or two ridings, but only the winner gets the seat. The Conservatives have a chance, but if they do win a seat itll likely be a long night for the Liberals.

Prediction: Liberals 4

Nova Scotia
Number of Seats: 11
2015 Results: Liberals 11

Between the four Atlantic provinces, which will have their polls closed for at least two hours before all of the other provinces this one will be the one that will indicate how well of a night the NDP will have. We could see the NDP win as much as three or be shut-out from the province. The Conservatives also have chances in multiple ridings and on a good night they would be able to win at least three of them.

Prediction: Liberals 8, NDP 2, Conservatives 1

New Brunswick
Number of Seats: 10
2015 Results: Liberals 10

Of the four Atlantic provinces, New Brunswick will be the bellwether between the Liberals and Conservatives. Both parties should win three seats a piece while the other four could be an indicator as to how well the party will do across the rest of the nation. Additionally, Fredericton will be the Green partys best shot at winning a seat outside of British Columbia. Historically, the Greens tend to have a poor get out the vote machine and the fear of handing the riding to the Conservatives may cause a few people to jump ship.

Prediction: Liberals 5, Conservatives 5
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Quebec
Number of Seats: 78
2015 Results: Liberals 40, NDP 16, Conservatives 12, Bloc 10

At the beginning of the election campaign it looked like the Liberals would have a chance at winning a supermajority of seats, but the rise of the Bloc after the debates have pretty much cost the Liberals any chance for a majority. In general, the Liberals will win most of their seats in Montreal, the Conservatives will win most of their seats in Quebec City while the Bloc will win most of their seats across the rest of the province.

The NDPs rise will likely stop them from getting shut out in the province, but the Orange Wave of 2011 is dead. This is also the only place the Peoples Party could win a seat thanks to their leader. His riding could very well go to the Conservatives, likely signalling the death of the party.

Prediction: Bloc 37, Liberals 27, Conservatives 11, NDP 2, Peoples Party 1

Ontario
Number of Seats: 121
2015 Results: Liberals 80, Conservatives 33, NDP 8

Overall Ontario will have the well-known urban/rural divide. While Toronto proper may be a complete sweep for the Liberals, the sub-urban area, the Greater Toronto Area is a hotly contested area. I think it will lean Liberal, but a good night for the Conservatives here would be the difference maker should they form government.

Prediction: Liberals 58, Conservatives 43, NDP 20

Manitoba
Number of Seats: 14
2015 Results: Liberals 7, Conservatives 5, NDP 2

After being shut-out of Winnipeg, the Conservatives will be looking to make gains along the outer region. The NDP may be kicked out of the city, but theyll hold the northern riding. Things will be tough for the Liberals from here west as the vast majority of their winnable ridings belong to Eastern Canada.

Prediction: Conservatives 10, Liberals 3, NDP 1

Saskatchewan
Number of Seats: 14
2015 Results: Conservatives 10, NDP 3, Liberals 1

The rise of the NDP likely saves them from being shut-out in Saskatchewan, but they definitely are not guaranteed to hold any of their seats. While the province has gone very anti-Liberal over the past four years people still love Goodale and thus the Liberals will continue to hold on to the seat until he retires.

Prediction: Conservatives 11, NDP 2, Liberals 1

Alberta
Number of Seats: 34
2015 Results: Conservatives 29, Liberals 4, NDP 1

Speaking of going anti-Liberal, Alberta will be pushing to wipe out the Liberals. On a good night, the Liberals could hold onto a seat, but its unlikely. Similarly, the NDP may lose their seat due to their incumbent retiring, especially if the Liberals siphon a few votes, allowing the Conservatives to come up through the middle.

As an aside, given how close the election is we could see a scenario where the Conservatives win the most votes, but the Liberals win the most seats. It would be because of provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan where in some ridings the Conservatives will win with 70% to over 80% of the vote.

Prediction: Conservatives 33, NDP 1
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British Columbia
Number of Seats: 42
2015 Results: Liberals 17, NDP 14, Conservatives 10, Greens 1

British Columbia is the chaos province. Just about every riding in Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island can be considered a 3 or 4 person race. In general, the Conservatives will be looking for a near-sweep of the interior while they will be generally pushing into the outer regions of Metro-Vancouver and hoping for a vote split to win on Vancouver Island (likely in the north). The rise of the NDP has likely saved them a few seats, especially on Vancouver Island.

This will likely come at the expense of the Green party where at the beginning of the election it looked as if they would sweep the southern Vancouver Island ridings, be a major player on the rest of the island and potentially target a few ridings in Metro-Vancouver. We could very well see the Greens fail to improve on their 2015 result. The independent is Jody Wilson-Raybould whom was kicked out of the Liberal caucus during the SNC-Lavalin scandal. I think she has a decent chance at winning. Should she fail the seat will likely go Liberal.

Prediction: Conservatives 15, Liberals 13, NDP 10, Greens 2, Independent 1

Territories
Number of Seats: 3
2015 Results: Liberals 3

I dont think any polls were released for the territories. Generally, the people up north vote for the person rather than the party. With the Yukon and Northwest Territories running incumbents I feel they will go Liberal while for Nunavut, they may return to the Conservatives as the 2011 MP is trying to regain her seat.

Prediction: Liberals 2, Conservatives 1

Overall
Conservatives 130
Liberals 126
NDP 41
Bloc 37
Greens 2
Peoples Party 1
Independent 1

I didnt have a final total in mind when I started this, but if the above prediction comes true it would be utter chaos. The Conservatives and Liberals obviously wont work together while the NDP has said they will not work with the Conservatives. This essentially means well need three or more parties working together.

I think the Liberals would have the better chance at forming government. The Bloc is more ideological similar to the Liberals, but could work with the Conservatives if they promise not to pass laws that are against the interest of Quebec (the pipeline would be a big issue though). The Greens and JWR are more likely to support the Liberals while the Peoples Party would support the Conservatives. So even if the Bloc and Peoples Party decide to support the Conservatives, they would fall short (130+37+1 = 168) to the Liberal/NDP/Green/JWR (126+41+2+1 = 170). Add the fact that it will be the incumbent Prime Minister who gets the first attempt to form government would mean the Liberals are more likely to hold onto power despite winning fewer seats. Of course, there will likely be an attempt to convince a Liberal or Conservative MP to switch sides which would add more to the chaos. I imagine well have a new election in a year or possibly early 2021.
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God, I fucking hate Alberta. I wish it was viable for me to move.
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your scenario is hilarious and terrifying

the idea of
Bloc Conservatives - 167
NDP Liberals - 167

with the Green Party, People's and Independent suddenly having all the power.

Also another election in a year -.-
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Whiskey_Nick posted...

your scenario is hilarious and terrifying

the idea of
Bloc Conservatives - 167
NDP Liberals - 167

with the Green Party, People's and Independent suddenly having all the power.

Also another election in a year -.-

Ha ha ha, yea.
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Ten minutes until polls in Newfoundland close...
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Whiskey_Nick posted...

with the Green Party, People's and Independent suddenly having all the power.

which would mean JWR, May and Bernier are the three likeliest speakers of the house. fun times.

I'd have to look at the ridings, but the BC prediction looks off. NDP/Conservatives probably tie for most, and the Liberals should grab 8-11.
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jagmeet singh is the hottest so i hope that's what we're going by again this time
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I'm rooting for Trudeau. A guy who remembers to stuff socks in his crotch to fully complete his blackface minstrel costume possess the attention to detail Canada needs to overcome 21st century problems!
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PumpkinCoach posted...

jagmeet singh is the hottest so i hope that's what we're going by again this time

he smells lovely in person too
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L3YYmaTMYJUiONxsPrDQy_7OsO-KUbO178LMAuyUPCA/edit?usp=sharing

these are bad BC predictions and will most likely be wrong. I have the Tories and NDP at 16 in BC, with the Liberals at 7, Greens at 2 and JWR is the independent. but it's really anyone's game. Greens are doing well on the Island and could take a third seat. If they take a third seat, that bodes poorly for the NDP, and some toss-ups could go Liberal. My two boldest predictions are both Liberal losses - Wai Young (Conservative) in Vancouver South, and Svend Robinson (NDP) in my riding of Burnaby North - Seymour.

hard to say what I want personally out of this election, but uh I'd like to get this anxious knot out of the bit of my stomach which I don't think will be solved by any of the likely scenarios, so...!
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I really think this should be a UFC fight to the death scenario I'm sick of all the frail nannies running the country

official results are in:


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go my blackface prime minister
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davidponte posted...

go my blackface prime minister

Saw a gentleman at my voting station today with blackface Trudeau printed on a tshirt.

Liberals win, CBC calls
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also calling it a minority now
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It seemed a little less certain as Election Day loomed, but at the end of the day, the result was exactly as I originally expected.
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seriously tho NDP

geez
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well I said I'd be wrong
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Atlantic Green seat called now in Fredericton
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Confused here. How can they call it without calling a majority in Parliament? Have some of the smaller parties agreed to work with the Liberals?
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Scheer was so milquetoast and uninspiring. Mr. Dressup should have been an easy boot.
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red sox 777 posted...

Confused here. How can they call it without calling a majority in Parliament? Have some of the smaller parties agreed to work with the Liberals?

They're saying Liberals will win a plurality of the seats. A minority government will need support of other parties (whoever they may be) in order to pass legislation.
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Grimlyn posted...

seriously tho NDP

geez

explain?
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the Jack Layton have certainly eroded hard by now, at time of posting it was worse but 25 is still really bad as things stand now

atm

LIB 159
CON 118
BQ 33
NDP 25
GRN 3

(lol PPC 0, yay)

just about cracking 160 looks like a pretty strong minority
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JWR hanging in there now
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Update: LIB: 157, CON: 121, BQ: 32, NDP: 24, GRN: 3, IND: 1
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tired and going to bed now, but JWR indeed gets her seat
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While I knew the Conservatives getting the most votes while the Liberals getting the most seats was a possibility, the fact that they are up almost two points, but down 33 seats is impressive to see.

That's what happens when you break 65% in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
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Bleh, Svend Robinson narrowly lost in my riding.
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charmander6000 posted...

While I knew the Conservatives getting the most votes while the Liberals getting the most seats was a possibility, the fact that they are up almost two points, but down 33 seats is impressive to see.

That's what happens when you break 65% in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

That's like the reverse of the United States. What's going on with the conservatives? It looks like they did a very bad job of gerrymandering....
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red sox 777 posted...

charmander6000 posted...

While I knew the Conservatives getting the most votes while the Liberals getting the most seats was a possibility, the fact that they are up almost two points, but down 33 seats is impressive to see.

That's what happens when you break 65% in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

That's like the reverse of the United States. What's going on with the conservatives? It looks like they did a very bad job of gerrymandering....

Gerrymandering is less of a thing in Canada as the electoral boundaries are made by an independent group.
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