Current Events > Aquaman is shooting for $1 billion worldwide

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Tyranthraxus
12/27/18 5:25:25 PM
#1:


https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/12/27/box-office-aquaman-jason-momoa-hobbit-star-wars-dark-knight/

This would make it the top DCEU movie of all time an better than a lot of Marvel's as well.

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With $596 million worldwide as of Wednesday, it is all but certain that Aquaman will top $600m worldwide by the end of this sentence. The DC Films flick earned another $16.9m in North America and $20m overseas on Wednesday, which is a mere 23% drop from its $22m Christmas Day gross. The James Wan-directed adventure has earned $122.615m domestic in six days and should close out its first week with around $137m. The big question is whether its decent reviews and relatively positive word-of-mouth, which includes quite a bit of Huh that was better than I expected! feedback (always good for legs), will mean a second-weekend drop closer to The Force Awakens (-40%) than I Am Legend, Rogue One, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey and The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (all -56% to -58%).

Yes, it will mean more that a movie that opened with $248 million took a mere 40% drop (even if it had the good fortune of Christmas Day falling on its second Friday) as opposed to a movie dropping 40% during Christmas even with a $73m debut weekend. If the Jason Momoa/Amber Heard actioner is able to use the holidays to buffer what otherwise would be a conventional comic book superhero second-weekend-drop, it might hold around as well as Black Panther (-44% from a $202m debut in 2018), Wonder Woman (-43% from a $103m debut in 2017). A hold like Blade (-36% from a $17m launch in 1998) or Spider-Man (-38% from a $114m launch in 2002) would be a pipe dream, or would it?

Thus far, despite opening with $72.7 million in North America (counting the $4.7m in pre-release sneak previews), Aquaman has taken day-to-day drops frighteningly close to Jack Reacher (which fell 27% on day six) and National Treasure: Book of Secrets (which fell 9% on day six). Im using those as a measuring stick for the moment because they too opened on December 21 when Christmas also fell on a Tuesday. Right now, Aquaman has a 1.68x weekend-to-domestic multiplier compared to 1.73x for National Treasure 2 ($77.9m in six days after a $44.7m debut weekend in 2007) and a 1.77x multiplier for Jack Reacher ($26.9m after a $15.2m debut in 2012). Actually, if you remove the pre-release preview showings and count Aquamans opening as $68m (which you shouldnt, but humor me for a moment), you get a multiplier pretty much equal (1.8x) to the respective super-leggy Christmas releases.

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Tyranthraxus
12/27/18 5:25:43 PM
#2:


Im not expecting a second-weekend drop comparable to Jack Reacher (-10.6%) or Book of Secrets (-20%), but I wont be shocked if its closer to Force Awakens or Return of the King than Rogue One or Desolation of Smaug. Whether you think Aquaman is a dynamite IMAX-friendly entertainment, merely better than Justice League or Suicide Squad (or worth it just to ogle Momoa and/or Heard), it is positioned as the official fantasy adventure event movie of the season, the closest thing we have this season to Star Wars, Avatar or Middle Earth adventure (it even briefly turns into National Treasure in its second act). With Mary Poppins Returns safely dispatched via an ill-advised move to December 19 (Disney really should have kept that Christmas Day opening), itll have three weeks of calm seas before M. Night Shyamalans Glass.

By tonight or early tomorrow, itll pass Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald ($611 million on a $200m budget) to become Warner Bros. biggest global grosser of 2018. At this point, it is almost certain to go the distance to challenge the likes of Wonder Woman ($821m), Venom ($860m) or Batman v Superman ($873m) is an open question. It just got an extension in China until February 6, 2019, but its not like Venom has been rolling in newly-acquired Chinese box office after its respective extension. Aquaman has now earned $246m in China, passing Avengers: Age of Ultron ($240m in 2015) and sitting behind Venom ($260m) and Avengers: Infinity War ($360m) among all Hollywood superhero flicks.

The big question is whether or not Aquaman makes it to $1 billion worldwide. No, thats not the bar for success, but as long as it keeps playing like Desolation of Smaug and Battle of the Five Armies, its a distinct possibility. They earned (respectively) $258 million domestic from a $73m debut weekend (3.53x) in 2013 and $250m domestic from an $89m Wed-Sun debut in 2014. They both earned $700m overseas with Hobbit 2 earned $75m in China and Hobbit 3 earning $121m in China. Its not beyond reason that Aquaman, which again is being embraced as this years year-end super-duper fantasy flick, pulls domestic and overseas numbers just over/under the Hobbit movies and then uses that obscene China gross to get over the finish line. Again, its not the bar for success, but its no longer implausible.

Aquaman has now earned $473 million overseas as of yesterday. That puts it past The Dark Knight ($469.7m in 2008, sans China and in 2-D) and behind only Batman v Superman ($543m in 2016) and The Dark Knight Rises ($636.8m in 2012 in 2-D) among all DC Comics adaptations. Whether or not it matches/tops the $1.004 billion gross of The Dark Knight or the $1.085b gross of The Dark Knight Rises, its probably going to end up as the biggest overseas grosser ever in DC Comics history. If it tops $650m overseas (which it probably will), itll pass Black Panther ($646m) to be the biggest DC or Marvel superhero flick in foreign grosses behind Captain America: Civil War ($745m), Iron Man 3 ($806m), Avengers ($896m), Avengers: Age of Ultron ($946m) and Avengers: Infinity War ($1.37b).

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YonicBoom
12/27/18 5:43:59 PM
#3:


What a bunch of garbage

A movie cannot "shoot for" any amount, it either does indeed make x dollars or does not. There's no "pushing" towards more, you just release the film and what happens happens.

This is dumb.
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TommyG663513
12/27/18 5:47:28 PM
#4:


YonicBoom posted...
What a bunch of garbage

A movie cannot "shoot for" any amount, it either does indeed make x dollars or does not. There's no "pushing" towards more, you just release the film and what happens happens.

This is dumb.


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Freddie_Mercury
12/27/18 5:49:41 PM
#5:


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Tyranthraxus
12/27/18 6:12:21 PM
#6:


YonicBoom posted...
What a bunch of garbage

A movie cannot "shoot for" any amount, it either does indeed make x dollars or does not. There's no "pushing" towards more, you just release the film and what happens happens.

This is dumb.


I was unable to fit "Film analysts and executives are increasing projections for Aquaman to make $1 billion worldwide" in an 80 character title.
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Darklit_Minuet
12/27/18 6:16:42 PM
#7:


Why would a meme superhero earn a billion dollars tho?
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The-19th-Sparta
12/27/18 6:18:59 PM
#8:


RIP Aquaman shooting up to $1 billion worldwide.
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LightningAce11
12/27/18 6:20:47 PM
#9:


Well deserved. James Wan killed it.
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Tyranthraxus
12/27/18 6:20:57 PM
#10:


Darklit_Minuet posted...
Why would a meme superhero earn a billion dollars tho?

Movie is good
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KamenRiderBlade
12/27/18 6:21:34 PM
#11:


I liked it when I saw it. It's a good movie.
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#12
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KamenRiderBlade
12/27/18 6:23:30 PM
#13:


CloneTheHero posted...
damn... gotta hand it to hollywood for turning the most boring comic book character into a box office smash hit.
Jason Momoa does a good job re-inventing the comic version of Aquaman into a much more interesting character.
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PrettyBoyFloyd
12/27/18 6:24:17 PM
#14:


Tyranthraxus posted...
YonicBoom posted...
What a bunch of garbage

A movie cannot "shoot for" any amount, it either does indeed make x dollars or does not. There's no "pushing" towards more, you just release the film and what happens happens.

This is dumb.


I was unable to fit "Film analysts and executives are increasing projections for Aquaman to make $1 billion worldwide" in an 80 character title.

Why not "Aquaman expected to make $1 billion worldwide" ?
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sobergermanguy
12/27/18 6:25:49 PM
#15:


Roman Reigns is finally over
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KamenRiderBlade
12/27/18 6:26:23 PM
#16:


sobergermanguy posted...
Roman Reigns is finally over
Go back to the WWE Wrestling Board.
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A_Good_Boy
12/27/18 6:26:29 PM
#17:


Don't see anyone claiming the success of this superhero movie is due to sjw projections or feelings. I wonder why that is.
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Darmik
12/27/18 6:27:23 PM
#18:


Messing up Batman and Superman while nailing Wonder Woman and Aquaman is an impressive feat
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KamenRiderBlade
12/27/18 6:27:48 PM
#19:


A_Good_Boy posted...
Don't see anyone claiming the success of this superhero movie is due to sjw projections or feelings. I wonder why that is.
Because it had none of that stuff.
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KamenRiderBlade
12/27/18 6:28:10 PM
#20:


Darmik posted...
Messing up Batman and Superman while nailing Wonder Woman and Aquaman is an impressive feat
Blame Zack Snyder.
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sobergermanguy
12/27/18 6:28:51 PM
#21:


KamenRiderBlade posted...
sobergermanguy posted...
Roman Reigns is finally over
Go back to the WWE Wrestling Board.

If you say so bbygurl belee dat
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Darmik
12/27/18 6:29:49 PM
#22:


KamenRiderBlade posted...
Darmik posted...
Messing up Batman and Superman while nailing Wonder Woman and Aquaman is an impressive feat
Blame Zack Snyder.


Oh I do.
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#23
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bulletproofvita
12/27/18 6:30:47 PM
#24:


LightningAce11 posted...
Well deserved. James Wan killed it.

In Wan we trust.
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A_Good_Boy
12/27/18 6:31:04 PM
#25:


KamenRiderBlade posted...
A_Good_Boy posted...
Don't see anyone claiming the success of this superhero movie is due to sjw projections or feelings. I wonder why that is.
Because it had none of that stuff.

None of what stuff?
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Darmik
12/27/18 6:32:09 PM
#26:


I haven't seen Aquaman yet but it looks like a fun movie. I think this goes to show that's overall the most important part for a superhero movies success. They need to be fun.
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Fossil
12/27/18 6:39:19 PM
#27:


Wasn't a bad movie, it just felt rushed the entire time I was watching it.
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KamenRiderBlade
12/27/18 6:39:38 PM
#28:


A_Good_Boy posted...
None of what stuff?
No politics inserted into a Movie / TV show for the sake of it.
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#29
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Complete_Idi0t
12/27/18 6:40:27 PM
#30:


Seems like movies today are making a lot more money than movies 50 years ago. The reason will surprise you!!!
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KamenRiderBlade
12/27/18 6:40:48 PM
#31:


Ex-Kefiroth posted...
lol good luck. Aquaman is lame
Watch the movie first before you judge him.
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TheTrueAmerican
12/27/18 6:44:22 PM
#32:


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Anteaterking
12/27/18 6:47:32 PM
#33:


YonicBoom posted...
A movie cannot "shoot for" any amount, it either does indeed make x dollars or does not. There's no "pushing" towards more, you just release the film and what happens happens.


Have you never heard of marketing?

Studios have the ability to pull various levers to try to drive more box office if they think the extra money they spend will end up benefiting them. It's not "Let's just see what fate has in store!"
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Darmik
12/27/18 6:49:31 PM
#34:


KamenRiderBlade posted...
A_Good_Boy posted...
None of what stuff?
No politics inserted into a Movie / TV show for the sake of it.


So what superhero movies had that stuff for the sake of it?
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josifrees
12/27/18 6:50:33 PM
#35:


Jason Momoa/Amber Heard actioner


I stopped here. Really???
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GasMonkey
12/27/18 6:57:52 PM
#36:


they sure loved that underwater booming horn noise. i think its used like ever 5 sec on average. thats all i got about this movie
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FluttershyPony
12/27/18 7:06:54 PM
#37:


>aquaman
>expecting people to see a movie about a superhero who talks to fish

uhhh ok
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WafflehouseJK
12/27/18 7:08:54 PM
#38:


Captain_Qwark posted...
I saw it and was pleasantly surprised by the movie.

The music was awful and a lot of the actors didn't go a great job acting wise but the fights were dope and the visuals were amazing to be honest. That one scene in the trench was outta this world

I mostly agree with this. I wouldn't say any of the performances were bad (other than whoever played teenage aquaman, god that was bad.) but they weren't spectacular either.

The visuals and cinematography is where the movie really shined, and gave me an itch for more giant sea creatures in movies.
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Axiom
12/27/18 7:10:35 PM
#39:


It's a case of everything else DC released being shit (Aside from Wonder Woman anyway) and this one is not complete shit so it seems much better in comparison
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Tyranthraxus
12/27/18 7:25:59 PM
#40:


Axiom posted...
It's a case of everything else DC released being shit (Aside from Wonder Woman anyway) and this one is not complete shit so it seems much better in comparison

No. Dude. The movie is just good.
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Tyranthraxus
12/27/18 7:28:33 PM
#41:


WafflehouseJK posted...
Captain_Qwark posted...
I saw it and was pleasantly surprised by the movie.

The music was awful and a lot of the actors didn't go a great job acting wise but the fights were dope and the visuals were amazing to be honest. That one scene in the trench was outta this world

I mostly agree with this. I wouldn't say any of the performances were bad (other than whoever played teenage aquaman, god that was bad.) but they weren't spectacular either.

The visuals and cinematography is where the movie really shined, and gave me an itch for more giant sea creatures in movies.


I thought both Amber and Yahya both delivered an incredible performance. Williem Dafoe also did amazing but he always does amazing. Like, the worst actor in the movie was Momoa and he still did a really good job.
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bulletproofvita
12/27/18 7:34:56 PM
#42:


It was ok, just ok, a bit meh.
Have to say Patrick Wilson was great.
I kept waiting for Osborne to turn into green goblin tho, hopefully in Aquaman II : The Watering.
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KamenRiderBlade
12/27/18 8:34:02 PM
#43:


Darmik posted...
So what superhero movies had that stuff for the sake of it?
Mostly the DC TV series on "The CW".

It's been heavy handed on certain shows like SuperGirl.
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YookaLaylee
12/27/18 8:41:40 PM
#44:


Tyranthraxus posted...
Axiom posted...
It's a case of everything else DC released being shit (Aside from Wonder Woman anyway) and this one is not complete shit so it seems much better in comparison

No. Dude. The movie is just good.

I saw the first 15 minutes and the last 30 minutes and I was bored
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