Current Events > So is Powerball a good investment mathematically right now?

(+) Yeah! (+)

Caution999 posted...

Mathematically you have no chance in hell.

That being said, its two dollars for a ticket. Just buy one.

It's not really about the money. It is funding something that is stupid and tries to make people say and think stupid things.

wah_wah_wah posted...

Caution999 posted...

Mathematically you have no chance in hell.

That being said, its two dollars for a ticket. Just buy one.

It's not really about the money. It is funding something that is stupid and tries to make people say and think stupid things.

Somebody has to win the money. It might as well be you
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Feline_Heart posted...

wah_wah_wah posted...

Caution999 posted...

Mathematically you have no chance in hell.

That being said, its two dollars for a ticket. Just buy one.

It's not really about the money. It is funding something that is stupid and tries to make people say and think stupid things.

Somebody has to win the money. It might as well be you

The winner is government.

They call it the poor people tax but still it only takes one
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UnholyMudcrab posted...

This explains it so much better than I ever could.

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/24vzgl/you_just_won_a_656_million_dollar_lottery_what_do/chba4bf/

tl;dr: if you win the lottery, you're extremely likely to end up getting fucked over

This is a bit disingenuous. The fact of the matter is that the lottery can pick a winner from amongst all walks of life, and the fact that drug addicts or hicks win the lottery is not an indication the same fate that befalls them will befall you. The post also doesn't mention the countless winners and mega winners who have taken their earnings and fallen into obscurity.
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myztikrice posted...

UnholyMudcrab posted...

This explains it so much better than I ever could.

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/24vzgl/you_just_won_a_656_million_dollar_lottery_what_do/chba4bf/

tl;dr: if you win the lottery, you're extremely likely to end up getting fucked over

This is a bit disingenuous. The fact of the matter is that the lottery can pick a winner from amongst all walks of life, and the fact that drug addicts or hicks win the lottery is not an indication the same fate that befalls them will befall you. The post also doesn't mention the countless winners and mega winners who have taken their earnings and fallen into obscurity.

Every one of the people that won big and got fucked in the ass by it, thought exactly the same way you did. No one wanted to win the lottery because they WANTED to get railed.

No, because expected value doesn't tell you everything.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg_paradox
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I mean, really, if you just wait until it gets this high to buy them there really isn't anything wrong with that. It's 2 dollars. Just take a shit at work and you've made the money.

Smokers spend between $5 & $8 a day in cigs. Since I don't smoke, I figure that $3 a week is OK by comparison. I spent more than that during the fighting arcade games times.
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the girls at work have a lottery pool. :u I really hope we win. they i can finally leave this shithole
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I just don't get the "It's entertainment" mentality.

I understand spending money on gambling or scratch off tickets for fun, even if you know that it's not going to give you good value.

But buying a lottery ticket doesn't even seem that entertaining. Most people still do the mental exercise of "What would I do if I won the lottery?" without ever purchasing one, so that's out.
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Cj_WlLL_VVlN posted...

Jack pot is 700 mil so say you get 350 after taxes.

Chances are 1 in 250 million.

Buy 250 million tickets. If you end up with 350 million, that's still a net gain of 100 million.
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Feline_Heart posted...

CADE FOSTER posted...

Not every state makes no sense why would states want you to get possibly killed for that money

I don't get it either, but the argument is that "the public deserves to know" for some reason. It's dumb

I think the reasoning is because a few people have won with office pools in the past and tried to sneak it by everyone and take all the money themselves.
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Piersons_Fox posted...

Cj_WlLL_VVlN posted...

Jack pot is 700 mil so say you get 350 after taxes.

Chances are 1 in 250 million.

Buy 250 million tickets. If you end up with 350 million, that's still a net gain of 100 million.

Well, you would actually have to buy almost 300 million tickets to be certain of a win---providing nothing happened to some of your tickets.... and if another person or multiple people get the winning numbers (which does happen, relatively often) then you'll have to share it 2 ways, 3 ways, 4 ways, etc.

So then you can kiss millions and millions goodbye. Not feasible.
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Anteaterking posted...

I just don't get the "It's entertainment" mentality.

I understand spending money on gambling or scratch off tickets for fun, even if you know that it's not going to give you good value.

But buying a lottery ticket doesn't even seem that entertaining. Most people still do the mental exercise of "What would I do if I won the lottery?" without ever purchasing one, so that's out.

Yeah, but the mental exercising is amplified because you know you've done your part. You've given yourself an opportunity to actually make your dreams become a reality. "Are the numbers out yet? Do I have the winning numbers?!"

You really should buy one before the drawing. I have a good feeling about you.... (remember me, please)
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If I ever won the Powerball, id actually stop posting in the messageboards here in Gamefaqs but Id still be using the faqs/cheats/guides for videogames anyway.

Im serious. If i ever won the Powerball Id stop posting but Id still be lurking around here anyway

No lol
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Relax. I said Id stop posting but Id still be lurking around for the faqs/guides/cheats and tips at gamefaqs.

Cj_WlLL_VVlN posted...

I heard you always take the lump some because interest/inflation.

There's a lot of business reason to take the lump sum, including inflation, opportunity cost, investment opportunities, etc.

But, frankly, you're more liable to blow it all on bullshit than do anything smart with it.

If you already know how to do business and invest and you somehow win the lottery, take the whole pot. But if not, just take the payout plan so you can learn how to be rich after fucking yourself over a couple times.
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Statistically it isn't that bad.

Assuming you don't split the pot yes the expected value is positive.
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Buying one $2 ticket should, statistically, be a smart play at this point. The real idiots are the people who drop a bunch of money on tickets. Congratulations, you spent an extra $18 and raised your odds of winning by .00001%
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SideshowBob311 posted...

Buying one $2 ticket should, statistically, be a smart play at this point. The real idiots are the people who drop a bunch of money on tickets. Congratulations, you spent an extra $18 and raised your odds of winning by .00001%

What?

Buying 10 times as many will increase your odds by a factor of 10. There is no way to parse math/statistics where buying 1 ticket is a good idea and buying 10 is a bad idea, you buy as many as you want and no more, but 40 different tickets is 40 different chances.

Basically 10 tickets is just as smart as 1.
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joe40001 posted...

Basically 10 tickets is just as smart as 1.

I mean, if you had positive EV (and let's just pretend it's distributed better as well), buying 10 tickets is 10 times as smart as 1.
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Anteaterking posted...

joe40001 posted...

Basically 10 tickets is just as smart as 1.

I mean, if you had positive EV (and let's just pretend it's distributed better as well), buying 10 tickets is 10 times as smart as 1.

It depends on how you define "smartness" I believe we are saying the same thing, but my only point is the EV as a percentage of the investment remains unchanged so it certainly isn't dumber to buy more. Spending beyond ones means is dumb, but that's a different conversation.

Statistically speaking if you encounter a scenario where you have a positive EV and your goal is maximizing your total then you should do that transaction as many times as possible.
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joe40001 posted...

Anteaterking posted...

joe40001 posted...

Basically 10 tickets is just as smart as 1.

I mean, if you had positive EV (and let's just pretend it's distributed better as well), buying 10 tickets is 10 times as smart as 1.

It depends on how you define "smartness" I believe we are saying the same thing, but my only point is the EV as a percentage of the investment remains unchanged so it certainly isn't dumber to buy more. Spending beyond ones means is dumb, but that's a different conversation.

Statistically speaking if you encounter a scenario where you have a positive EV and your goal is maximizing your total then you should do that transaction as many times as possible.

This is not true.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg_paradox
tl;dr: Put $2 in the pot. Flip a coin. Heads, you double the pot and flip again, tails, you get what's in the pot and the game ends. The EV of this game is 2*.5 + 4*.25 + 8*.125... or 1+1+1+1... or infinity.
So by that logic, you should pay your entire life savings to play it once, but realistically you're just going to end up broke.
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CircleOfManias posted...

joe40001 posted...

Anteaterking posted...

joe40001 posted...

Basically 10 tickets is just as smart as 1.

I mean, if you had positive EV (and let's just pretend it's distributed better as well), buying 10 tickets is 10 times as smart as 1.

It depends on how you define "smartness" I believe we are saying the same thing, but my only point is the EV as a percentage of the investment remains unchanged so it certainly isn't dumber to buy more. Spending beyond ones means is dumb, but that's a different conversation.

Statistically speaking if you encounter a scenario where you have a positive EV and your goal is maximizing your total then you should do that transaction as many times as possible.

This is not true.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg_paradox
tl;dr: Put $2 in the pot. Flip a coin. Heads, you double the pot and flip again, tails, you get what's in the pot and the game ends. The EV of this game is 2*.5 + 4*.25 + 8*.125... or 1+1+1+1... or infinity.
So by that logic, you should pay your entire life savings to play it once, but realistically you're just going to end up broke.

An infinite series is not a single transaction so you can't criticize my rule about EV of transactions by talking about an infinite series.

And you are criticizing what I said even though I clearly said "statistically speaking". Pragmatic real world financial management is not the same as what is the best choice statistically speaking.

So your criticism has lots of problems.
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