LogFAQs > #983485260

17. Magus vs. Knuckles the Echidna (2005) R1

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/a/a1935a62.jpg

Magus 49.14% 50153
Knuckles the Echidna 50.86% 51909
TOTAL VOTES 102062
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/(3)Magus_vs_(6)Knuckles_the_Echidna_2005
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2088-devil-division-round-1-magus-vs-knuckles-the-echidna

Nobody saw it coming. Thats a phrase that gets thrown around all the time when discussing upsets, but its usually an exaggeration. Theres always some core group of people, no matter how small, who were sniffing around the upset, even if very few of them were willing to take a risk and pick it. Magus/Knuckles was different. OK, sure, Smurf did predict it, but hes a Sonic fanboy, so who knows how much though was put into that prediction. Absolutely no one that was thinking critically about this match had any idea that its result was a possibility. It was a shock out of the blue, made even more stunning by the fact that it wasnt some newcomer or unknown quality that was involved. It was two contest mainstays who took us all by surprise, and forced us to reevaluate how accurate all of our received wisdom was. That helped up the ante even more and helped transform the match from a simple upset, no matter how unexpected, into a match that tied into narratives and character journeys that would span close to 20 years.

Ive written at length so far about Maguss journey through contest history. Im sure its repetitive, but its hard not to pay a bit of extra attention to Magus, the character who has one of the most memorable narratives in contest history. Going into 2005, he was still riding high in the initial stage of his journey though, widely considered to be the strongest character not in the Noble Nine, and one of the only ones with the capacity to break it. And this wasnt based on speculation or dodgy math; it was based off of a direct 1v1 match against Link himself. Even the lol, xstats crew would find that hard to argue against. But yet, there were signs that something was off with that result. While Magus himself would only have two inscrutable matches in 04, the other characters from his 03 fourpack (Ganondorf, Tidus, Sam Fisher) all had underperformances that following year. Even though there was no strong explanation provided as to why, it began to be speculated that Maguss 35% against Link was an overperformance, and, as if to test that theory, a Round 2 Match was set up in 05 between Magus and Squall, seemingly settling once and for all the debate as to who was the strongest Near Elite.

The board by and large sided with Magus, and much has been made over the years of this being the defining example of board groupthink and of ignoring the obvious signs that were staring everyone right in the face. That is certainly true to an extent, and whenever a result that hinted at Maguss weakness was brought up, people would dismiss it with an excuse. What makes this different from other groupthink situations though, is that those excuses werent just a cope; there were a lot of legitimate counters that were brought up, and seemingly contradictory results that dont have a good explanation. Ive tried not to get into the nitty gritty of re-litigating match debates from 20 years ago, but I think for this match its relevant just to demonstrate the sheer volume of coincidences that had to pile up in order to hide Maguss weakness.

First off, one of the big points against Maguss 03 value being legitimate was Tiduss weaker than expected performance against Mega Man in 04. But the thing is, if that match went against his value from 03, his Round 1 match did the exact opposite. Tidus was expected, based on the 03 stats, to have a 50/50 match with Shadow, and thats exactly what he did. It just so happened that Shadows value in 03 was also inflated for unclear reasons, for exactly the same amount. Plus, going back even further, Tiduss 02 X-Stat value was inflated as well, making the 03 value look more legitimate. Didnt Ganondorf do a little worse than expected against Alucard in 04? Sure, but due to Twilight Princess and Villain Contest hype, Ganondorf eventually boosted to his inflated 03 value anyway, once again appearing to legitimize his 03 value. Even matches that didnt directly involve any of the characters in that four pack played a role. Did Sam Fisher look weaker than he should have in 04? Sure, and while Samus overperformed on him, she also legitimately overperformed against Lara the round before (once again for unexplained reasons), making Sams numbers against her easier to dismiss than they should have been. And hadnt Frog almost beaten Snake? Surely that implied something about Maguss strength as well. If all of this made Maguss fourpack hard to decode, things were obfuscated even more by Ceejs decision to make 04 an SFF-fest, reducing the accuracy of its results, and also banning Magus and Shadow from the Villain Contest, which might have exposed either of their real popularities much earlier. As I said earlier, all the signs were there, but it is truly impressive how much was there to mask the signs as well.

In any case, as Round 1 went on, people went back and forth litigating and re-litigating the arguments listed above, not in preparation for any kind of Round 1 match, but in excited anticipation for the Magus/Squall showdown of Round 2. Even Squall supporters werent expecting Magus to lose before getting there. His match with Knuckles was just supposed to be a testing ground to see if he would show any signs of weakness, to see if he would dip below the 60/40 result that most people were expecting. The match started, and from the very start, the Magus doubters were vindicated. Magus was winning, but he was winning by less than 60/40. *Much* less. Still, for the first hour or so, he was building up his lead steadily, even if he seemed to have stabilized around 54%. His match against Squall was in serious jeopardy, but thered be time for that later. And then, around 90 minutes in, as the Power Hour wore off, Maguss time started to run out. His percentage collapsed, and Knuckles was stalling him out consistently, keeping Maguss lead steady at a mere 600 votes. There was little doubt that Knuckles would win the Day Vote, and, with Maguss lead sitting where it was, that would almost certainly be enough to win the entire match as well. The board sat in shock, watching this all play out, as Knuckles did what the trends would predict, coming on strong during the day, and putting the match away for good. Magus would manage to pull off a near 1,000 vote comeback over the last several hours of the match, but it would not be enough. The character that most people had taken to win the entire Devil Division had just been eliminated in the First Round, before the showdown with Squall had even happened.