LogFAQs > #979898163

It's surprising to us but not to them. That's the difference of a contest upset on B8 and one overall, which is what the question is. They didn't "get lucky" with Master Chief, they just read the room better.

I'll give an analogy since I don't think you're getting it. Say someone is specialized in a certain betting contest, like horses or football. They crunch numbers, they make bets, they usually get things right but a few things wrong. If a race or game happens that goes wildly out of scope, they adjust accordingly. For reference this isn't a pure hypothetical, people like this exist. Now make a board full of them. What they get right or wrong is not what an upset is in that respective sport, what determines the upset is the people in the overall pool. That includes the casuals. B8 is good at predicting the right 3:1 odds winners. That doesn't mean we're right and sometimes what we think is 3 to 1 is actually the opposite.