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Topic	Soo is Trump going to win again?
adjl 03/04/24 8:44:12 AM #15:	darkknight109 posted... Sure, Trump's got his base and they're as fanatical as ever... but he barely scraped out a win in 2016, he lost in 2020, and he's done nothing to expand his reach since that time. Like... what is he running on that would attract people not already in his cult? Immigrants "poisoning the blood of the nation"? That "Day 1 Dictator" nonsense? Pulling out of NATO? How are any of these supposed to be attractive to centrist voters on whom his election hinges? The only thing that might tip things back in Trump's favour is nothing Trump's done to become more popular, but what Biden's done to become less popular. Biden's response to Israel has turned off a ton of would-be Democratic voters, and while there's zero reason to believe Trump wouldn't keep helping with the genocide (remembering that he moved the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem in an overt display of taking sides in the conflict) and ample reason to believe he'd make things worse for Arabic/Muslim Americans (he didn't follow through with it, but I've never forgotten when he was campaigning in 14-15 and suggested registering all Muslims as a counter-terrorist measure), choosing not to vote at all because people don't want to vote for Biden is half as effective for electing Trump as voting for Trump over Biden. The 2020 election was intense. Both Biden and Trump got significantly more votes than any other presidential candidate in history, entirely because people were so fired up about whether or not they wanted Trump in office. Trump has lost a lot of steam among moderates, and certainly his newest rhetoric isn't helping that, but that makes the stakes seem lower and Biden hasn't exactly excited anyone, so he's also lost a lot of steam. So... I'm not sure what to expect. It's going to come pretty much entirely down to voter turnout: If too many people stay home on election day because they don't care, Trump will win. If enough people get out and vote for who they think sucks the least despite being less than enthusiastic about the whole thing, Biden will. --- This is my signature. It exists to keep people from skipping the last line of my posts. <cite>adjl posted [p:979178192] in Soo is Tru... [t:80712128]...</cite> <quote>darkknight109 posted... </cite><quote>Sure, Trump's got his base and they're as fanatical as ever... but he barely scraped out a win in 2016, he lost in 2020, and he's done nothing to expand his reach since that time. Like... what is he running on that would attract people not already in his cult? Immigrants "poisoning the blood of the nation"? That "Day 1 Dictator" nonsense? Pulling out of NATO? How are any of these supposed to be attractive to centrist voters on whom his election hinges?</quote>The only thing that might tip things back in Trump's favour is nothing Trump's done to become more popular, but what Biden's done to become less popular. Biden's response to Israel has turned off a ton of would-be Democratic voters, and while there's zero reason to believe Trump wouldn't keep helping with the genocide (remembering that he moved the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem in an overt display of taking sides in the conflict) and ample reason to believe he'd make things worse for Arabic/Muslim Americans (he didn't follow through with it, but I've never forgotten when he was campaigning in 14-15 and suggested registering all Muslims as a counter-terrorist measure), choosing not to vote at all because people don't want to vote for Biden is half as effective for electing Trump as voting for Trump over Biden.The 2020 election was intense. Both Biden and Trump got significantly more votes than any other presidential candidate in history, entirely because people were so fired up about whether or not they wanted Trump in office. Trump has lost a lot of steam among moderates, and certainly his newest rhetoric isn't helping that, but that makes the stakes seem lower and Biden hasn't exactly excited anyone, so he's also lost a lot of steam. So... I'm not sure what to expect. It's going to come pretty much entirely down to voter turnout: If too many people stay home on election day because they don't care, Trump will win. If enough people get out and vote for who they think sucks the least despite being less than enthusiastic about the whole thing, Biden will. --- This is my signature. It exists to keep people from skipping the last line of my posts.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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