LogFAQs > #977263821

Also, I never saw this coming, but... Houston has turned into a team that should make the playoffs at this point. Their tiebreakers are solid, and their upcoming schedule isn't hard (They currently have a better CR and SOV than everyone at 5 losses) This is a team that can and should reach 10 wins if they put everything together. Their tiebreakers are so good right now that even 9 wins could be enough to get them the 7 seed.

What's even crazier is there's absolutely a chance that Houston and Indy could be playing each other in week 18 for a playoff spot. Indy has a notably harder upcoming schedule, but they already beat Houston once. All they'd have to do is stay within a game of them, even if Houston wrenches the division from the Jaguars. The thing is.. I don't think the Colts will, but it'd be fun for the much beleaguered AFC South to crash the party.

Still think the Browns are a playoff team. I also had them as a playoff team before the season started. The Browns are basically just an actually competent form of the Jets with coaching that knows what it's doing. They will comfortably slide into the playoffs and have locked it up before week 18. Will the Browns play to win in a meaningless week 18 game if it means trying to knock out the Bengals? I don't know.

Bengals are probably baked, but it's not as bad as the Bills. Save the victory over Buffalo, they have one of the worst tiebreaker situations you'll ever see, albeit a partially fixable one later. 0-3 in Division and 1-5 in Conference, with a loss to Houston (All other playoff contenders are 3 conference losses at worst). Given they can't tiebreak their way out of a paper bag, this means the Bengals will have to end ahead of a bevy of other teams, or win a series of key upcoming games. Every team left on their schedule is a playoff team with the exception of the playoff-relevant Colts. What helps the Bengals is many of those wildcard-relevant teams are AFC. Two against the Steelers, one against the Browns, one against the Colts. Even winning all four of those games might not be enough to get them in, but it's critical for them to win them all. They can't take any more damage in comparison to the teams they've fighting with.

Bills are definitely baked. 2-5 in Conference is as bad as Cincinnati's. Their only "playoff relevant" win was over the Raiders (who are about to play some much better teams overall and die). Their tiebreakers are awful, with minimal ability to fix it, and they lost way too many games in the easy part of their schedule. The upcoming schedule is brutal and they will likely find themselves at 6-8, which is near-elimination for them. Two of these losses being NFC losses would still likely leave them behind teams like Houston and Pittsburgh for a tiebreaker, if they could even catch either of them. Barring seismic shifts in other teams, the Bills can't make the playoffs unless they have at least 10 wins, or the Dolphins completely implode, and I just don't see it. The Bills more likely to lose 10 games than they are to make the playoffs at this point, and that's wild. If that actually happens, I expect more firings.

Biggest wild card is the Steelers. They're a bad team, but they're 6-3... With a blowout loss to the Texans, which could haunt them. Their division record is 2-0, and their conference record is a sparkling 4-2. All this team has to do is keep doing what they've been doing and they're in. This feels like an inexplicably 9-8 or 10-7 team that will tiebreak almost every other team on the planet so long as they don't get swept by the Bengals.

NFC has such a clear playoff picture outside of the South and who actually wins the divisions. Eagles/Lions/49ers/Seahawks/Cowboys/Vikings are all playoff teams, and they are all notably better than every other team in the conference.

Basically, I think every team currently in the playoffs in the AFC is probably going to stay there, and in the NFC those 6 are all going to stay there. Not even going to try to figure out the NFC South.