LogFAQs > #968584103

AFC East

1. Miami Dolphins
2. New York Jets
3. Buffalo Bills
4. New England Patriots

The Dolphins have the best skill position group on offense, but that OL is in the worst state it has ever been in, and they will be without one starter for roughly half the season. They lost star-in-the-making C Frank Ragnow in RFA, and they let both of their former Top 10 picks OTs walk, including two-time Co-OL of the Year in Morgan Moses. They still have arguably the best interior OL in the league in RG Laurent Duvernay-T as well as a long-time great in LG Max Jean-Gilles, but will the likes of QB Sam Keller and HB Jacquizz Rodgers help lift up the lesser OL or will they suffer because of the much lower skill level? The defense should still be elite. They lost two starters from last season, but I wouldn't rank either among their Top 7 most important defenders, so while it will be a loss, it shouldn't have a big negative impact. The rest of the division had a chance to take advantage of the offseason the Dolphins had, but they mostly took a one step forward, one step back approach. Overall, they probably have the most stars in the league, so they are still a Super Bowl threat, but they have only been to one Super Bowl since I left, and they certainly aren't the favorites on paper from the AFC to begin the year.

I feel like I say this every season, but I can see 2-4 going in any order. If not for Deshaun Watson having one of the worst seasons by a QB in our history (55.8 passer rating, 51.9 completion %), the Jets are in the playoffs. They had a breakout season by HB Joe Mixon, the OL played great, and while the defense as a whole was around average, statistically they experienced poor luck in terms of overall ranking and they have plenty of elite or great players starting for them. Current management has improved the team's record each season at the helm, so it feels like they are on the cusp of making it back into the playoffs after being one of the more consistent AFC playoff teams in the Fenny era. They have no injuries to begin the year, and given their schedule, they could start as well as 4-1. The back-half of the schedule has so many away games, but most of them are winnable. If they would have been more aggressive in acquiring talent in the offseason like they were last season, I would feel better as slotting them as a wild card team, but they should be a playoff threat all season.

I think the Bills took a decent step backwards offensively. They let A.J. McCarron walk after he's been the best QB for them since Brady Quinn. In his place will be recent 1st round pick Josh Allen who was a disaster last season. They also let Branden Albert walk, who wasn't performing as well as his price tag, but the natural OT has been at worst an above-average G and one of the better blocks along the interior. On defense, they continued their efforts to be the premier satellite team for the Dolphins by grabbing DT Jordan Phillips and OLB T.J. Watt. They have lots of question marks still on defense, especially in the secondary, but the middle of the DL and LBs should be the main strength of the team. As they have been for the past several seasons, injury luck is on their side as they were one of a handful of teams to escape the preseason unscathed. They do not have a difficult schedule, so they should be a fringe wild card contender like they have been for the past few years. Given the construction of their team, the margin for error is pretty slim, and several players will have to take significant leaps forward.

If there's one team to look at to see just how much an elite OL and starting HB can do for a team, look no further than the Patriots who were so close to finishing with the #1 seed in the AFC last season with QB Sam Bradford at QB and a defense that took a decent step back. With an OL that had 348 blocks against 25 sacks allowed and a HB with more than 2000 total yards for the second time in the past three seasons and with a 4.4 YPC, they defeated a lot of great teams last season. The crushing playoff defeat notwithstanding, they had a base recipe for success, but the rest of the team let them down. Now the rest of the team is worse on paper, well the defense at least. Two of their DL from last season are either gone or injured for the year, there's a new and far less talented MLB with a second-year OLB next to him, and the secondary is hanging by a thread outside of CB Shaquill Griffin. The defense could be a sneaky candidate to finish in the Bottom 10, which would normally crush any chances to be in the playoffs, but the Bears and Lions last season showed you need great luck, especially regarding turnovers. They will likely though need to make strides in the passing game remain a playoff threat, but given how poor they have been the past several seasons, I will need to see it to believe it.