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TopicHearthstone Topic:Madness at the Darkmoon Faire
dowolf
11/24/20 9:44:22 PM
#96:


...You know what? It's time for surprise math lesson! YAY!

Assume that all daily quests in the old system were 60 gold, and all quests in the new system are 1k XP. This isn't quite true, but I'm too lazy to look up the exact data and, if it is unfair, it's unfair for both so let's go with it.

Old system quests got you 420 gold/week. New system gets you 13k XP/week. At levels past 50, 4.5k XP is worth exactly 150 gold, so that's 433.33 gold/week. We're slightly ahead in the new system!

But what about before level 50? It takes 196.2k XP to hit level 50. Looking at quests only, using the 420=13k math from quests, we need to get at least 6339 gold worth of value to be ahead. Ignoring the first four levels because we got those for free in the old system, there is:

1) A total of 5550 gold.
2) Two tavern tickets (Total value: 300 gold)
3) 7 packs, two of which are Madness packs. The lowest possible value we can reasonably give the packs is their minimum dust value, 40, so they are worth at minimum 280 gold. (You could very easily argue they're worth more.)
4) 1 epic and 1 legendary. Again, we can't declare them to be worth less than their minimum dust value, 500, and you can (and I very much believe you should) argue they're worth more.

So, with the maximum pessimistic assumptions, we're at 6630 total value, putting us modestly ahead. If you, say, value the legendary at 1600 gold and the epic at 400 (I do!), you're at 8130, giving you an extra 1791 gold in value! Woohoo! If you value the packs at more than 40, you're just swimming in value!

What about the passive gold gain? If you play Battlegrounds, you previously got roughly 5g/hour (assuming 20 minute games), now you get 300 XP/hour. 300 XP is worth 10 gold. You're ahead! Arena players used to get nothing, now they get something. They're ahead! If Duels is your jam, that didn't exist a month ago, you're ahead!

That brings us to Ranked. Let's assume you're playing control and your average match time is 10 minutes. In the old system, this gets you 10 gold/hour. 400 XP is worth 13.33 gold. You're ahead!

What if you're an aggro player and your average match time is 6 minutes? In the old system, this gets you 16.67 gold/hour. You are down 3.33 gold/hour. However, you must play about 5 hours per week for the extra quest gold not to still leave you ahead, plus another 100+ hours beyond that to cancel out achievement XP, never mind the value pre-50... which, if we use the 1600/400 calculation, requires you to play over a thousand hours per expac to not be ahead.

Speaking of, achievement XP. Are most players going to get all 15000? No. But we can probably assume most players get at least one levelup out of it, for an extra 150 gold.

The only caveat to this is, of course, that I'm assuming the stated 400XP/hour in Ranked is accurate... and it is! Here, have some data: https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/jw7zw4/xp_per_hour_calculations_win1xp7s_loss1xp10s/ There's even some arguing that 400XP/hour undercounts the actual gains!

And on a monitization side, the preorder bundles have the most value they've ever had, and the bundle they just put in the store is absurdly valuable for anyone on a shoestring budget.

So in conclusion, everyone but super hardcore aggro-only players at high legend with non-negligible queue times is ahead in the new system. Queue times not giving XP should probably be fixed for their sake, but they are the outliers. The vast majority of players -- especially those who e.g. don't do all of their quests -- will find significant gain.

(edit: fixed one silly math error on my end)
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Nonsense. "Testing" is for when you're still guessing--and now, I have no need to guess. -- Agatha, Girl Genius
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