LogFAQs > #946477363

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Topic	Biden \| 40,962,735 \| 57.64% \| Trump \| 27,258,817 \| 38.36% [Ng Election Tracker!]
Ngamer64 10/29/20 9:50:15 PM #80:	handsomeboy2012 posted... Didn't the polls show Hilary with a large lead back in 2016? Will the same situation happen this time around? We've discussed this from a number of angles now, but one we haven't touched on is... Hillary was looking to be in a pretty good position before a collapse in the last week, and that's not going to happen this time around. One because we're running out of time, but even more importantly we're running out of voters. With tonight's update we'll be at well over 80 million ballots cast, accounting for nearly 60% of the 2016 vote total. Another 15 million ballots could very well be in the mail system as we speak. Even if an enormous headline arrives in the next few days, it's just not mathematically possible for it to shake up the election like it would have in any previous election in American history. I also think Biden's in a way better position than Hillary for a related reason: all these votes are already in the safe. Trump's attacks on the mail in process have convinced his supporters to be all-in on Election Day, and it's dangerous to put all your eggs in one basket when you have such an uphill climb ahead of you. Even if there are 50 million highly motivated Trump fans sitting at home right now waiting for Tuesday, anything could happen to disrupt their plan. A sick kid, an emergency at work, having to wait four hours in line in bad weather, being elderly/high risk and getting scared off by a skyrocketing rate of COVID infections in your area, etc. All in all it's just a dangerous proposition that would have me wary of trusting Trump's chances, even if the polls in important states were razor thin at the moment. --- Congrats to azuarc, Mario Kart 64 AND GameFAQs Contest Legend! board8.fandom.com/wiki/The_Show \| thengamer.com/xstats <cite>Ngamer64 posted [p:946477363] in Biden \| 40... [t:79068586]...</cite> <quote>handsomeboy2012 posted... </cite> <quote>Didn't the polls show Hilary with a large lead back in 2016? Will the same situation happen this time around?</quote>We've discussed this from a number of angles now, but one we haven't touched on is... Hillary was looking to be in a pretty good position before a collapse in the last week, and that's not going to happen this time around. One because we're running out of time, but even more importantly we're running out of voters. With tonight's update we'll be at well over 80 million ballots cast, accounting for nearly 60% of the 2016 vote total. Another 15 million ballots could very well be in the mail system as we speak. Even if an enormous headline arrives in the next few days, it's just not mathematically possible for it to shake up the election like it would have in any previous election in American history. I also think Biden's in a way better position than Hillary for a related reason: all these votes are already in the safe. Trump's attacks on the mail in process have convinced his supporters to be all-in on Election Day, and it's dangerous to put all your eggs in one basket when you have such an uphill climb ahead of you. Even if there are 50 million highly motivated Trump fans sitting at home right now waiting for Tuesday, anything could happen to disrupt their plan. A sick kid, an emergency at work, having to wait four hours in line in bad weather, being elderly/high risk and getting scared off by a skyrocketing rate of COVID infections in your area, etc. All in all it's just a dangerous proposition that would have me wary of trusting Trump's chances, even if the polls in important states were razor thin at the moment. --- Congrats to azuarc, Mario Kart 64 AND GameFAQs Contest Legend! board8.fandom.com/wiki/The_Show \| thengamer.com/xstats</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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