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| Topic | Biden | 40,962,735 | 57.64% | Trump | 27,258,817 | 38.36% [Ng Election Tracker!] |
| charmander6000 10/28/20 2:11:42 PM #20: | Xeybozn posted... Was there ever an explanation from 538 why Clinton's odds went up so much the last two days before the 2016 election? There was virtually no movement in the polls, but her odds still went up about 7% (with Trump's odds going down the same amount). I remember a lot of other political predictors were mocking them for having Trump's odds so high, so it almost seems like they just went in and manually played with the model until they got "better" results. I wouldn't be surprised, they were getting a lot of hate from Democrat supporters and when everyone else has such different odds it makes you want to take a second look at your model to see if you missed something. Another option could be that the model included some kind of late news release which would add uncertainty. --- Congratulations to azuarc for winning the guru challenge ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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