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Topic	Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion
red sox 777 10/26/20 4:04:07 PM #111:	masterplum posted... I just don't see a nationwide change in a landscape where 95% of people are 100% set already. Trump needs to A: Hope Republican turnout is substantially better than Democrat turnout (Looking exceedingly unlikely based on early voting numbers) Or B: Hope for systematic polling error across the entire country Trump had A last time, but he didn't have B. Polls actually underestimated Clinton support in deep blue states which led to the popular vote differential. What he did have is polling error in the rust belt. He just needs the world this time. I don't think it's going to happen But the polls from a week before the election in 2016 did have substantial polling error, even on a national level. They moved about 3 points in the last week, after which the national polling error was minimal, although the distribution was very favorable to Trump. We've heard many people theorize over the last 4 years that Comey announcement that he was reopening the investigation of Hillary's emails caused that 3 point boost. Well, I've always been skeptical of that. I think it's more that many people didn't want to admit (to others or themselves) that they were going to vote for Trump. But during the last week, there was no more time to put off the decision by remaining uncommitted and they were forced to look at their options - and conclude that the Republican was better on policy. We'll get a good idea soon of if my theory is correct. If it moves substantially toward Trump without an October surprise like a stash of Biden's emails being found - then I'm probably right. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:946329511] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>masterplum posted... </cite> <quote>I just don't see a nationwide change in a landscape where 95% of people are 100% set already. Trump needs to A: Hope Republican turnout is substantially better than Democrat turnout (Looking exceedingly unlikely based on early voting numbers) Or B: Hope for systematic polling error across the entire country Trump had A last time, but he didn't have B. Polls actually underestimated Clinton support in deep blue states which led to the popular vote differential. What he did have is polling error in the rust belt. He just needs the world this time. I don't think it's going to happen</quote> But the polls from a week before the election in 2016 did have substantial polling error, even on a national level. They moved about 3 points in the last week, after which the national polling error was minimal, although the distribution was very favorable to Trump. We've heard many people theorize over the last 4 years that Comey announcement that he was reopening the investigation of Hillary's emails caused that 3 point boost. Well, I've always been skeptical of that. I think it's more that many people didn't want to admit (to others or themselves) that they were going to vote for Trump. But during the last week, there was no more time to put off the decision by remaining uncommitted and they were forced to look at their options - and conclude that the Republican was better on policy. We'll get a good idea soon of if my theory is correct. If it moves substantially toward Trump without an October surprise like a stash of Biden's emails being found - then I'm probably right. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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