LogFAQs > #946328860

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Topic	Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion
masterplum 10/26/20 3:47:22 PM #108:	I just don't see a nationwide change in a landscape where 95% of people are 100% set already. Trump needs to A: Hope Republican turnout is substantially better than Democrat turnout (Looking exceedingly unlikely based on early voting numbers) Or B: Hope for systematic polling error across the entire country Trump had A last time, but he didn't have B. Polls actually underestimated Clinton support in deep blue states which led to the popular vote differential. What he did have is polling error in the rust belt. He just needs the world this time. I don't think it's going to happen --- https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BdWiElvIQAAQpBt.jpg <cite>masterplum posted [p:946328860] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>I just don't see a nationwide change in a landscape where 95% of people are 100% set already. Trump needs to A: Hope Republican turnout is substantially better than Democrat turnout (Looking exceedingly unlikely based on early voting numbers) Or B: Hope for systematic polling error across the entire country Trump had A last time, but he didn't have B. Polls actually underestimated Clinton support in deep blue states which led to the popular vote differential. What he did have is polling error in the rust belt. He just needs the world this time. I don't think it's going to happen --- https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BdWiElvIQAAQpBt.jpg</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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