LogFAQs > #946009646

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Topic	Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion
HeroicCrono 10/18/20 6:40:07 PM #83:	Trump is back to 40% on PredictIt. My guess is that the market is pricing in uncertainty relating to so many people voting by mail. The polls show Biden is winning those voters with more than 70%, so if even say 5% of mail votes are rejected for not being signed, getting lost, etc., Biden could lose millions of votes. Not sure how else to explain the huge delta between the polling models and the prediction markets. <cite>HeroicCrono posted [p:946009646] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Trump is back to 40% on PredictIt. My guess is that the market is pricing in uncertainty relating to so many people voting by mail. The polls show Biden is winning those voters with more than 70%, so if even say 5% of mail votes are rejected for not being signed, getting lost, etc., Biden could lose millions of votes. Not sure how else to explain the huge delta between the polling models and the prediction markets. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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