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Topic	Coronavirus Topic 11
LordoftheMorons 08/18/20 4:59:04 PM #247:	Corrik7 posted... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html Finally an article talking about what I have said. The places hit hardest before will look good going forward because they might have already reached practical herd immunity? It is extremely unlikely that any place in the US has reached the herd immunity threshold. There are places that have had enough people infected to achieve a significant "partial" herd immunity. This is still a big deal; if 20% of the population is immune, that drops Rt by 20% and might bring you below 1. But the crucial point is that Rt is only below 1 while in the presence of current levels of social distancing/mask wearing/etc. If everyone in, e.g., NYC went back to life as normal pre-covid, cases would start to go back up again. We need a vaccine (or for things to get way worse than they were even in March/April in NYC) to reach actual herd immunity (by which I mean enough immunity for the virus to stop spreading despite "normal" human behavior). --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ! <cite>LordoftheMorons posted [p:943540069] in Coronaviru... [t:78879225]...</cite> <quote>Corrik7 posted... </cite> <quote>https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html Finally an article talking about what I have said. The places hit hardest before will look good going forward because they might have already reached practical herd immunity?</quote>It is extremely unlikely that any place in the US has reached the herd immunity threshold. There are places that have had enough people infected to achieve a significant "partial" herd immunity. This is still a big deal; if 20% of the population is immune, that drops Rt by 20% and might bring you below 1. But the crucial point is that Rt is only below 1 while in the presence of current levels of social distancing/mask wearing/etc. If everyone in, e.g., NYC went back to life as normal pre-covid, cases would start to go back up again. We need a vaccine (or for things to get way worse than they were even in March/April in NYC) to reach actual herd immunity (by which I mean enough immunity for the virus to stop spreading despite "normal" human behavior). --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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