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Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
05/25/20 5:44:56 AM
#161:


MetalmindStats posted...
I don't believe anyone claimed that whatsoever. There were definitely some who thought FFXIV had a very good chance to beat MK8, but no one who thought MK8 had no chance against FFXIV. For perspective's sake, 54.44% was the highest Oracle prediction for FFXIV there.

No chacne is probably not the best wording for a general opinion, I'll admit, but I did see that swung around in the stats topics more than once. "Some people" meant a few.

MetalmindStats posted...
No, it doesn't, because GameFAQs' database lists Mario Kart as a separate series from Mario as a whole, unlike say Captain Toad.

I see. But is it the only spin-off to do so? I can look into that myself as well.

MetalmindStats posted...
This is inherently a fallacious comparison, because Uncharted 2 was stuck behind Undertale's warping effect on the RBY/Sonic 2 match in 2015. Thus, it's reasonable to assume it's stronger than 2015 made it look, just like Portal 2, which was also skewed by the same match. On the other side, I could claim that Uncharted 2 is clearly the strongest of its series because 36.5% on Fallout 3 (through Halo) is obviously better than 41.5% on Mario Kart 8, but I won't, because I realize that Uncharted has almost certainly fallen off since the original GotD.

It's difficult to get a good read, but we adjusted for that as good as we could back then, so the point still stands. They don't look much differently as most people claimed, leading to the final one...

MetalmindStats posted...
I don't think I've seen anyone besides you claim anything about the contest strength relationship between Uncharted 2 and 4, whether during GotD 2 or at any other time. Maybe I've just missed said claims, but I feel like you're exaggerating at least a bit there.

"Everyone" is perhaps misleading, because it's not like it was ever any major discussion that involves the whole board. But I shared thoughts about Mario Kart being and later Skyrim probably being good, which I often explained had to do with expecting Uncharted 4 to be as good as anything Uncharted 2. Every round I did this, and everyone who responded to me made those claims, each time.

It's a specification worth editing in for sure, because of course a bunch of people could agree but just didn't respond. In reality they probably didn't care much.

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