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Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
05/24/20 4:52:14 PM
#152:


Round 1 Division 8 Day 15
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 84.00%
Subnautica 16.00%

Prediction Percentage 95.4%

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim had a rough contest. It was consider the favorite by the board to reach the finals and get the honor of being the final game Breath of the Wild beats, so it could basically only underperform from expectations. Furthermore, the other #1 seeds in the bottom half had board 8ers defending them at any chance, while Skyrim really lacked anybody doing that. The Witcher 3, which was from the start generally considered the most likely game to take the spot in the finals from Skyrim, had begun its contest run by exceeding expectations, so Skyrim could really only disappoint today.

It got 84% against a game that is pretty different from it and thats on top of any potential Bethesda backlash it might have been a victim of, which really starts to matter when you hit the big numbers. I dont think it was a bad performance, although some was making it out to be because Subnautica is expected to be extremely weak. Its not that its a bad game, but its no big name and its not a thing for us, that much is true. But Skyrim got below 80% here and I think that was what it needed to be in contention for the spot in the finals it could hope for.

The Witcher 3 looked better in round 1 for sure, but there was no telling what either of them was truly capable of yet. We couldnt say much about the Bethesda anti-voting yet, but it seems pretty clear its there later on. Its hard to grasp how much of a difference that makes. Like, Cloud Strife will probably never be the character to score the big blowouts again. Final Fantasy VII got that against them a long time ago for always winning. For a while, they started out looking bad at every chance, but still did just fine in the end. Because the round 1 matches were as big blowouts as they were, it wasnt yet time to lose all hope of Skyrim reaching the finals. The Witcher 3 might have tilted the favorite status slightly, and Skyrim sure heard of that, but it was still reasonable to hope for it.

The oracles predicted this match almost perfectly. I mean, weve been closer to the consensus than 0.77% before, although thats still good. But the worst prediction still got 44.30 points. Thats pretty darn great. Despite that, people were ready to throw dirt at Skyrim right away. A big reason for that is its horrible board vote, which was a good hint of the expected Bethesda anti-voting. Most people dont see the percentages at the end of the day and Skyrim rose throughout the day, though not as much as in future matches, which says a lot about Subnautica. It was judged from when the match began, and I know trends arent what they used to be, but that doesnt mean there cant be shifts. Ill probably defend it quite a bit, because I think it needs to be mentioned in any Game of the Decade debate even if what it did so well has been improved upon now, and nothing that is wrong with Bethesda has to do with Skyrim. It didnt deserve all the hate.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
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