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Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
05/22/20 1:23:57 PM
#136:


Round 1 Division 7 Day 13
Yakuza 0 77.39%
The Witness 22.61%

Prediction Percentage 86.12%

Sometimes a blowout is precisely what we need to get excited about a match and this one sure was that. After seeing big company games drop matches to indie games that they werent supposed to, so suddenly there was a bit of fear regarding this match, because Yakuza seems exactly like the type of game that is somewhat big but not cared about for on our site. This is the first time weve ever seen a Yakuza game in the bracket despite it being possible in all but the first games contest, and thats just when we had a bracket that was clearly going for diversity above contest strength.

No one actually thought the upset would happen, because The Witness was expected to be way too weak to take advantage of something like that. Indie puzzle games so far have not looked good and The Witness havent been lucky enough to get the Switch release were expecting helped so many other things out. Seriously, indie games are perfect for playing on the go and the Switch is a wonderful platform to play your indies on because of it.

We did however underestimate Yakuza 0 by 14% in the oracle, which is without a doubt fueled by the indie fear still going on. Thats a lot. Not a single person went this high. Third place is more than 6% away, fourth place is more than 7% away. Thats despite only one person actually picking The Witness to win and he had it in his bracket too. Its hilarious and it got plenty of attention today despite another match actually being good.

We largely expected The Witness to just be that weak with no one really having played it, but Yakuza 0 is actually just decent enough weve later learned. Its from 2017 so we should have seen it coming, but we didnt. It would be hard to find matches it could win in a normal contest, but it might still be worth having there. Its hilarious that despite Yakuza 0 looking great here, we werent ready to give it any credit for this match so all but a single oracle underestimated it next match as well. Thats even though it would go against a pretty controversial game! That says a whole lot about how little chance we gave The Witness. Obviously, it was weak, but we didnt even consider that perhaps it wasnt the worst in the bracket. It ends up being close to the worst in the bracket, but its still funny this match led to one to believe otherwise.

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