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Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
05/22/20 9:12:13 AM
#134:


Round 1 Division 7 Day 13
Rocket League 51.66%
Dragon Ball FighterZ 48.34%

Prediction Percentage 61.47%

This was a very debated match for the 1 point that its worth. You could make a good case for each of them here and the match and it was close enough to make each pick a fine choice. Rocket League is clearly the bigger game here, but we never cared for sports games and we never cared for racing games. Even though its different, Rocket League is still both of those! We also dont care for fighting games. This contest already showed the most recent Tekken, Mortal Kombat and Street Fighter being complete trash. If we ever did the days are certainly over. Mario Kart and Smash Bros are exceptions to this, but theyre different from their genre and also has well established popular characters in them. People picking Dragon Ball FighterZ were hoping that having such a big franchise name might be enough to give it the win in a debated match.

The match was quite exciting for a while. The very early board vote seemed to favor Dragon Ball, but Rocket League had a super small lead up until the freeze where it led by 10 votes. An update later, Rocket League had extended this to only 29 votes, which should make you worry if you expected Rocket League to have the top option bracket votes. True enough, Dragon Ball took the lead 15 minutes into the match, although only by 5 votes. At that point, it seemed like it could run away with it, but Rocket League took the lead back again, though with a lead of only 2 votes. Fighting over who could have the smaller lead, Dragon Ball took the lead by 1 vote an update later, giving us perhaps the most exciting match of the contest so far.

Dragon Ball would make a small attempt at taking the match from there, but it struggled a bit. It took some bumpy updates for Dragon Ball to get its lead above 30, and it couldnt keep it. Slowly cutting the lead down again, Rocket League went on to take the lead back and simultaneously show it was also capable of leading with exactly one vote. Then Rocket League would make a better attempt to build its lead, it slowly got up to the same place Dragon Ball was before bursting up to 81, looking like it was done. Dragon Ball had another form and it wasnt even the final one, so in 5 updates that it all won, the lead was cut back down to the 30s. Rocket League would have none of that and spent two updates putting the lead back up in the 70s. Unfortunately, Dragon Ball revealed its final form and in one beastly update threw the lead back into the 30s, but that would be the closest point of getting the lead back for the rest of the match.

Rocket League defeated the final form and from that point forward it never really looked back again. The match ended close up being close enough and had lots of stalls, but once Dragon Ball got back its good updates, it was far too late, so no one really noticed. The match would ultimately end up below 1000 votes and contend The Walking Dead vs. Bastion for best match of the contest so far, not that it was a hard title to claim in round 1. Eventually, Celeste vs. Rayman Legends got that.

If you look at the prediction percentage and how close this was, it mightve been decided simply by Rocket League being the top option and in extension to that having more brackets. Rocket League dying next round supports that claim. The weird thing about it is that Dragon Ball was best early on where most bracket votes tend to appear, but it mightve gone on for longer than usually because we just simply do not care for either game all too much. Its the best lesson to go for the top option when we care about neither, just like Overwatch vs. Death Stranding and Black Flag vs. Civilization V showed. The hard part is then knowing for sure when we care about neither game.

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