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Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
05/21/20 12:45:40 PM
#120:


Round 1 Division 6 Day 11
Sonic Mania 62.74%
Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA 37.26%

Prediction Percentage 78.37%

Sonic Mania was a huge board favorite, having gotten a solid nomination rally and earned its high seed as a result of it. It looked to be in a position where it could make round 3 and it was also the favorite to do so. Sonic Mania is popular for a modern Sonic game and the name still carries some strength with it. Its crazy to think that there might not even be a Sonic game in the bracket if the board hadnt pushed so hard for it to happen. Maybe Allen wouldve kept one in for legacy, but theres no Mega Man despite those being just fine as well, no Metroid although that one didnt have the best options. The Noble Nine is mostly represented in Smash Bros these days, except of course for Zelda and Mario, which are as dominant as ever.

Super Meat Boy awaited in the next match and upon many indie games doing so well, the idea that Super Meat Boy could perhaps beat Sonic Mania in round 2 was gaining some traction. 15% of gurus went with before the contest, but it was getting more popular. Sonic Mania is most likely among the more preferable round 2 opponents to draw. An exciting battle of overseeded entrants at the cause of board 8 looked to come up.

Then the match happened, and Sonic Mania went way below expectations. The board vote was very great, but Sonic fell drastically after that. It was against a Ys game, which isnt something you expect a lot of people to know much about despite how many of them there exists. The franchise has existed for a long time but has only recently been promoted from nothing to niche. Sonic needed to do better here. It looked to be very lucky it didnt draw something else or it might have not made it out of round 1. The next match looked to be close. Super Meat Boy looked fine, but not all too great considering it was facing something we expected to be among the worst of this already fodder filled bracket.

We know that this result is just not as bad as one could have expected. Ys VIII is apparently not all that bad. I mean, theres still not much point in having it in a regular games contest other than acknowledging it wasnt trash, but it couldve won the right match in this contest perhaps. If board 8 had pushed it to a high seed, it suddenly becomes a lot more possible. We have nothing to compare it to, because its the first time ever a Ys game has been in the bracket, but I dont think another entry couldve done better at any point unless perhaps we had a games contest in 1990, which we obviously didnt. For all the worthless series we have, maybe you just have to be extremely patient and you can one day become worth something in a contest here.

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