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Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
05/20/20 3:51:15 AM
#107:


Round 1 Division 5 Day 9
Stardew Valley 71.17%
Destiny 28.83%

Prediction Percentage 68.26%

This match went as basically every one of us expected it to, but it was still able to fuel the indie fear since Stardew Valley did better than most people expected it to do. In that regard, Destiny is the perfect opponent. Its bad and it was also in the previous contest where it was killed by Starcraft worse than it got killed today. If you expect some kind of SFF in that match, then Stardew Valley looks really good here. Not that in would matter much because Stardew Valley was never going to beat Super Mario Galaxy 2 regardless of how well it did this match.

Destiny has every reason to decline, of course. Our site has never been too huge on multiplayer games like this one but even less than we used to. Five years is a lot of time. You should expect things to change quite a bit between then and now. It makes it harder to compare and to predict, which has its ups and down for contest nerds. Its easy to see how much things can change in that time by looking at the character battles of 2002 and 2007. Or looked at 2004 and 2005 and see how much one year can do. If youre declining by each passing day, then five years can make you decline a lot.

Not to take any credit from Stardew Valley. It looks good here, and its probably one of the actual strongest indie games with the exposure and popularity it has had. It just wasnt in any position to take advantage of it itself. On the other side of contest, however, I think its pretty clear that the main reason Stardew Valley went over 70% was Destiny and not itself.

Its a shame we have so many fewer brackets these days. Almost everyone that makes one has some contest knowledge. I dont think theres much of a chance that Sardew Valley would be the favorite with the activity in these we had a decade ago. On Board 8 it would, of course, but this is a clear casual trap.

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