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Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
05/18/20 6:39:54 PM
#90:


Round 1 Division 4 Day 8
Fire Emblem: Three Houses 66.66%
South Park: The Stick of Truth 33.34%

Prediction Percentage 80.49%

The red flag was up when Awakening had its match, but on top of Xenoblade overperforming, Three Houses looked nothing like a division winner now. I mean, full respect for going for the exact doubling. The percentages are there, it was just a few votes away. Thats satisfying. It was an underperformance however and Three Houses needed the opposite of that to still be considered the favorite to make it out of round 3 when Xenoblade was looking so good in the other match.

Everyone knows what South Park is. The games are also well-liked enough. Theyre nothing big though, the seeding and the lack of the other one makes that clear. You should not believe it to be riding super high on the name alone, just because people know it. Everyone here knows Fire Emblem too so the forced voting shouldnt make much of a difference. Three Houses had to hope that somehow South Park was significantly better than expected or that Xenoblade SFFd Splatoon more than the already expected high amount. It didnt seem great for it.

This match was another loss for 2019. Every game from that year looked off, except for remake of a 1998 game, which has a clear explanation for being a possible exception. Perhaps were too slow to try out new games these days. Thats certainly not something that would surprise me. Its also possible it was just a bad year, but relative to Resident Evil 2, the other things looked further away that the Game of the Year polls indicated.

Perhaps Three Houses had some level of anti-votes behind it. The Smash Bros fanbase consists of some of the most whiny, greedy, and impatient people on the planet. Byleth, the main character of Three Houses, being revealed for Ultimate was not taken well among the fanbase. Fire Emblem had already been hated on for having too many representatives compared to what people thought it deserved and theyre also quite similar many of them. Then Byleth was the fifth character in a fighters pass that otherwise had only third party stuff. You can see where the disappointment comes from, but Smash fans dont get disappointed, they riot. I think its entirely possible that Three Houses was anti-voted because of it, but it had to be a bit for it to make a difference in the Xenoblade match as things looked now.

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