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Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
05/15/20 8:25:16 AM
#38:


Round 1 Division 2 Day 3
Mass Effect 2 62.94%
Resident Evil 7: biohazard 37.06%

Prediction Percentage 75.53%

When youre the favorite to win a division, you are not supposed to only get 63% in round 1. Something was clearly off here. The prediction percentage was also lower than every other match in the division except for the one including casual bait and rally feared Fortnite. Fallout 4 got a significantly higher number against indie game VVVVVV, and we had just learned those things were legit. Resident Evil 7? Does anyone care about the series at this point? The remakes brought back some fuel, but the early games were always popular. The fifth one was fine, but nothing extraordinary like what it followed up on. The sixth was bad and the seventh wasnt extraordinary either, and it was promoted mostly through VR.

This was how it looked at the time. Mass Effect 2 looked like it could potentially lose to Fallout 4, maybe the round after that, and it was certainly not the favorite in the division finals after this point. That went to Resident Evil 2 now maybe even DOOM or Bloodborne seemed more likely. This division played out perfectly that way because every round 2 match felt uncertain. Andromeda was obviously expected as the main reason for what looked a decline, but we hoped that people wouldnt punish previous entries for that and that the contest title would help Mass Effect 2 out, as it is often brought up in such discussions.

Of course, we know now that Mass Effect 2 is just fine and the thing that was off was the seeding of Resident Evil 7. This was considered at the time, but we werent sure for a while. I think in hindsight, we can figure out why. Resident Evil is still a huge franchise name. The fourth title is one of the most popular and revolutionary games ever and everyone knows what it is. The REmakes have been a huge success too, putting the franchise in a more positive light than it has been for some time. The franchise also never had bad reputation in the way Mass Effect or Fallout has had, it just declined a lot from its peak. I can see it getting a bunch of votes from people not having played either game. On GameFAQs that would certainly favor the older title, especially in a match where you see no point of bracket voting.

Its certainly a shame that Resident Evil 7 didnt get to break brackets somewhere, but it did serve the purpose of making the division interesting until the end. Its also a good reminder of how much more exciting the contest wouldve been if more than two games had been allowed per franchise. Resident Evil wasnt big enough for two big titles to take high seeds, so it allowed for a game to cause havoc with a low seed, even if it meant no victory. Wed have more runs similar to Mario Kart 8 this way probably. Im sure there are those that would complain we only care about very specific franchises, but I doubt its that different from elsewhere and wed still have the same top 16.

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