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Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
05/14/20 6:48:02 PM
#28:


Round 1 Division 1 Day 2
The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series 47.75%
Bastion 52.25%

Prediction Percentage 33.76%

In the good old day 2 curse fashion, we have our first upset of the contest, both overall and in the guru. No one expected Bastion to be worth anything, so it was expected The Walking Dead could win on just brand name alone here. This match eliminated more than half the users that entered Last Man Standing, in a very similar fashion to Dragon Quest VIII vs. Persona 3 did last games contest. TWD was still was not a bad pick. The match was close for a while, especially in the first hours. It would become the first match of the contest that stayed exciting for more than a couple of minutes.

The Walking Dead starting out building a small lead for a minute, but then stood roughly still for the rest of the time until the freeze with a lead of around 50 votes. Obviously, that was a huge red flag given how we know most of the board bracket voted TWD. The next update gave TWD a small gain but not what you would have hoped backing it in your bracket since bracket voted were still likely in play. The next update was just a single vote gain, but then 20 minutes into the match, the first cut happened, and I dont think anyone trusted TWD from that point forward. Bastion would follow this up with yet another cut bringing the lead down to 18 votes at which point anyone should expect a lead change at one of the next two updates.

Then some hope came out of nowhere because TWD almost doubled the lead again instead. Suddenly excitement for the match was there, it felt like TWD perhaps was capable of slightly more than bracket votes. The next update stood still, so it seemed like it wasnt just a onetime fluke, but a closer look would lead you to see a spike from TWD and then Bastion having a bad update. That could not be good, right? Nope, Bastion cut the lead down to 8 votes next update. At this point it seemed like just a matter of time, but the large group of us with TWD in our brackets still hoped to see it gain again.

The next update made must of us give up though. Bastion didnt just take the lead, it lead by 54 votes next update, almost more than TWD had at any point so far except for perhaps the first minute. It seemed over at that point. While the following updates would be more stale and even sometimes have TWD cutting a few votes for a stall, Bastion would push the lead over 100 with relative and most often, such things does not turn around often these days.

We had a couple of more hours of excitement waiting for us, however! TWD suddenly cut the lead from 135 to 100. Mostly due to Bastion having an off update. Then it cut again. The lead would be down to 87. Were we seeing a comeback attempt? It takes three updates to call it a trend, but those updates were pretty good. TWD tripped however and Bastion took its lead back above 100. False alarm it would seem. Should we give up now? After all, its just a 1-point match where the winner has no chance in hell to win another match.

Then TWD cut the lead from 109 votes to 62. There was reason to pay attention now. Small cuts typically mean nothing, but that was nothing like a small cut, and winning three out of the past four updates could mean TWD was starting to make a comeback, right? Well, the next one did it no favors, as Bastion raised the lead again to 72. Nothing big, but TWD needed to keep its momentum up. Fortunately for it, it reversed that update with the next one, seemingly still having a chance. A stall happened next, and then TWD cut the lead down to 52. Things werent exactly going fast, but it had removed over half of Bastions lead in 25 minutes. Things were going its way and at this point, it was reasonable to hope it could take the lead back. The next update really fueled that line of thought. TWD cut the lead down to 26, Bastions smallest lead so far. It could keep this up seemingly.

Bastions lead of 26 would end up being the closest The Walking Dead was from taking it back. That half hour ends up looking a bit weird. The TWD votes concentration then seemingly. The next updates didnt seal the deal, so we paid attention for a while longer, but all in vain. The next two updates had Bastion increase its lead by no more than a single vote. The match moved nowhere for a while, having Bastion lead by 32 half an hour later. Not exactly a lead you should feel safe about, but TWD couldnt get past it. After a few more stalling updates, Bastion finally took off again likely killing most hope, but just as it went above 100 votes gain, TWD showed us yet another round of false hope. It cut for five updates straight, which took more than half of the lead and put it back at 52. Only then, more than four hours into the match, could Bastion take off for good.

It did not look back from that point forward. Well, occasionally TWD stalled and made a small cut, but Bastion mostly went in one direction from that point forward. Slow and steady, it built its lead to win with around 1000 votes in the end. Most might not remember it anymore, because weve had close matches that were important and where we cared about the games, but this was a great match to have day 2. Giving us the great old feeling of excitingly checking the poll updater every fifth minute and getting nothing done. Somehow, no match ever fails to make me care if its this close, and although it didnt last the whole match, it was enjoyable for what it was!

The Walking Dead was almost at the bottom of the 2015 stats, so obviously it was never going to be strong. People that expected it to be ever weaker had the right idea. The zombie craze from the early part of the decade is no more, and telltale games have run their course. Still, in matches like this, it was reasonable for anyone to guess the more well-known name would pull it off with bracket votes and forces voting. Unfortunately, that can only help you so much, and it seems we will never see TWD win a match here. It has no reason to come back either.

One might think our reaction to this would be realizing The Walking Dead was even worse than we thought. Maybe thats how well think if we look at it now. That was however not the most common reaction. Instead, everyone cheered that indie games were now legit and should be feared. Hollow Knight has gotten more than 60% in a debated match and even Bastion had reached round 2. It didnt appear to matter much that it was only two matches that had a Tales of and a poorly aged telltale game. People were scared of every indie game in any of the debatable matches they had, which would continue throughout the rest of round 1.

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