LogFAQs > #937702957

LurkerFAQs, Active DB, DB1, DB2, DB3, DB4, Database 5 ( 01.01.2019-12.31.2019 ), DB6, DB7, DB8, DB9, DB10, DB11, DB12, Clear

Topic List	Page List: 1
Topic	Tsunami's Post-Contest Analysis (should not need a second topic)
TsunamiXXVIII 04/19/20 3:53:18 PM #96:	Match 67: Monster Hunter: World vs. Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice MHW 14644 SSDT 11599 The "Soulsborne" boost evidently doesn't extend to Sekiro, because this match was expected to be close and it wasn't close. Remember, this is the same series whose only previous outing involved being upset by Suikoden II. (Yeah, I know, not the same game.) More importantly, this is Capcom, whose last win in a debatable match was probably Mega Man > Charizard in 2013. (Oh, right, the DMC5-DKCTF match in round 1. There was that.) The idea of MH:W actually being strong seems ludicrous, but here it was, reaching R3 and still being the favorite to do so. Well, at least it'd be facing something strong next round. Match 68: Bastion vs. Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age Bastion 7370 DQXI 18869 Still nothing to see here. DQ11's path was pretty much set in stone from the start: Win three matches, then get beat pretty hard by BotW. Nothing seemed to indicate that this won't still be the case. Match 69: Mass Effect 2 vs. Fallout 4 ME2 18568 FO4 9197 Well obviously Mass Effect 2's going to win; a weaker Mass Effect game than 2 did better against Undertale than a stronger Fallout game than 4. But seriously, this was a good showing for Mass Effect 2, the type of performance it needs if it wants to stand a chance at breaking 40% against Breath of the Wild in Round 5. (It probably won't do it, but it looks like it can avoid the doubling.) Round 4 opponent? No, there's no cause for concern there, don't be silly. Match 70: Borderlands 2 vs. Horizon Zero Dawn Borderlands 2 12471 Horizon Zero Dawn 15292 When HZD scored a massive blowout of Fortnite, we all just chalked it up to Fortnite being antivoted to kingdom come. After this win, on the other hand, it looks legit. The Gurus were fairly split on this one, though they ultimately favored Borderlands 2; by the time Oracle came around, however, they were leaning towards HZD, likely as a result of BL2's Round 1 performance. With the casuals? Your guess is as good as mine who the favorite was. Technically speaking, more brackets picked HZD to win in this round than to lose in it, but the group that picked HZD to lose last round had the heavy plurality, 43.13% to 28.65% to 28.22%. Which means the favorite was probably Borderlands 2, which had an 80.77% prediction percentage in Round 1, but it's quite likely that "Horizon Zero Dawn-Fortnite winner" was favored over Borderlands 2 and certainly at least a chance that Fortnite could even be the favorite despite not being the favorite last round if enough of its R1 pickers were expecting it to be RallyFEAR and picked it to go deep. At any rate, this was a solid win for Horizon Zero Dawn. Its goal right now? Try to put up a better percentage on ME2 than its Round 4 opponent will. Prior to this round, I'd have called that impossible, but it just put up over 55% on presumably a stronger opponent than either of them faced, and neither of them broke 58%. Borderlands 2 (2015g) VS Fire Emblem: Awakening (2015g) Borderlands 2 has a strength of 21.33. Fire Emblem: Awakening has a strength of 22.89. Fire Emblem: Awakening wins with 53.41% of the vote! A win of 4,149 with 60,875 total votes cast. ...Oh. Never mind then. --- Also known as Cyberchao X. <cite>TsunamiXXVIII posted [p:937702957] in Tsunami's ... [t:78010425]...</cite> <quote>Match 67: Monster Hunter: World vs. Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice MHW 14644 SSDT 11599 The "Soulsborne" boost evidently doesn't extend to Sekiro, because this match was expected to be close and it wasn't close. Remember, this is the same series whose only previous outing involved being upset by Suikoden II. (Yeah, I know, not the same game.) More importantly, this is Capcom, whose last win in a debatable match was probably Mega Man > Charizard in 2013. (Oh, right, the DMC5-DKCTF match in round 1. There was that.) The idea of MH:W actually being strong seems ludicrous, but here it was, reaching R3 and still being the favorite to do so. Well, at least it'd be facing something strong next round. Match 68: Bastion vs. Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age Bastion 7370 DQXI 18869 Still nothing to see here. DQ11's path was pretty much set in stone from the start: Win three matches, then get beat pretty hard by BotW. Nothing seemed to indicate that this won't still be the case. Match 69: Mass Effect 2 vs. Fallout 4 ME2 18568 FO4 9197 Well obviously Mass Effect 2's going to win; a weaker Mass Effect game than 2 did better against Undertale than a stronger Fallout game than 4. But seriously, this was a good showing for Mass Effect 2, the type of performance it needs if it wants to stand a chance at breaking 40% against Breath of the Wild in Round 5. (It probably won't do it, but it looks like it can avoid the doubling.) Round 4 opponent? No, there's no cause for concern there, don't be silly. Match 70: Borderlands 2 vs. Horizon Zero Dawn Borderlands 2 12471 Horizon Zero Dawn 15292 When HZD scored a massive blowout of Fortnite, we all just chalked it up to Fortnite being antivoted to kingdom come. After this win, on the other hand, it looks legit. The Gurus were fairly split on this one, though they ultimately favored Borderlands 2; by the time Oracle came around, however, they were leaning towards HZD, likely as a result of BL2's Round 1 performance. With the casuals? Your guess is as good as mine who the favorite was. Technically speaking, more brackets picked HZD to win in this round than to lose in it, but the group that picked HZD to lose last round had the heavy plurality, 43.13% to 28.65% to 28.22%. Which means the favorite was probably Borderlands 2, which had an 80.77% prediction percentage in Round 1, but it's quite likely that "Horizon Zero Dawn-Fortnite winner" was favored over Borderlands 2 and certainly at least a chance that Fortnite could even be the favorite despite not being the favorite last round if enough of its R1 pickers were expecting it to be RallyFEAR and picked it to go deep. At any rate, this was a solid win for Horizon Zero Dawn. Its goal right now? Try to put up a better percentage on ME2 than its Round 4 opponent will. Prior to this round, I'd have called that impossible, but it just put up over 55% on presumably a stronger opponent than either of them faced, and neither of them broke 58%. <quote>Borderlands 2 (2015g) VS Fire Emblem: Awakening (2015g) Borderlands 2 has a strength of 21.33. Fire Emblem: Awakening has a strength of 22.89. Fire Emblem: Awakening wins with 53.41% of the vote! A win of 4,149 with 60,875 total votes cast.</quote> ...Oh. Never mind then. --- Also known as Cyberchao X.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Topic List	Page List: 1