LogFAQs > #936580813

LordoftheMorons posted...

This isn't feasible given that R0 is considerably above 1. For herd immunity you need a fraction 1-1/R0 of the population to be immune to get the effective R below 1 and stop exponential spread (so on the order of half the population). To keep that under our hospital capacity that would have to be stretched over and extremely long period of time, and even if we did that having half the population get the virus even with everyone getting treatment would be an unacceptably huge loss of life.

Again. That's why you don't want to lockdown too early and you are working just to reduce the load some.

If you lockdown too early you are in perpetual lockdown for the next decade or whenever a vaccine is made.

You want a wave of people that is a significant chunk of the population but also is reduced some to not overwhelm the hospital system too much. If you could get 1 million people infected this go around, then wave 2 has at least 1/400th of the population immune hopefully for awhile which automatically social distances.

If you only get 54 people infected. You did nothing to stop the spread later on and it just comes back as soon as you stop lockdown anyways. Unless you plan to go an isolationist country completely, the reduce it to 0 and case track is impossible. The virus is everywhere and would require zero trade ever to do that.

Containment is impossible.

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