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Topic	30 days to slow the spread.
wolfy42 03/31/20 7:57:04 PM #21:	papercup posted... It's important to remember that the way recoveries are counted are testing negative twice after testing positive. So not everyone that feels better will get another test, let alone 2, so the recovery rate is much MUCH higher than what is reported. I wish I could say that matters, but...sadly, at least for Italy's numbers, the number of deaths compared to the number of people who were confirmed to have the virus is what is important. That ratio shows it as being over 10% of the people who were confirmed to have the virus have died at this point. Now, it's quite possible not everyone was tested (highly likely in fact) that had the virus. Even if only half of those with the virus were tested though, that is still above a 5% mortality rate, which is completely and totally unheard of at this point. The flue has a .1% mortality rate. The gov is currently trying to say the this virus only has a 1% mortality rate even though the numbers that China released (which are obviously very unlikely to be true) show it having a higher mortality rate than that (significantly). China has settled down (few deaths each day now) to end with a 4% death rate out of those who tested positive. They seem to have at least hit a downward curve (but some reports say it's starting up again). The point though here is even if China is telling the truth (They certainly wouldn't exagerate the number of deaths) we are talking about a 4% death rate of people tested and probably at least a 2% death rate of the population who caught the virus. And it's highly (Extremely highly) likely they are covering up some things. So yeah, more are recovering than we know, but...the number that really matters is the % of people who get it who die, and well, that is looking to be at least double what the US is trying to say it is. It is almost certainly over a 2% death rate, and based on Italy, might be over 5%. --- Agatha "Your naked and they are nuns, it's not your eyes they're not looking at." Glowing Elephant "Stonehedge was a sex thing." <cite>wolfy42 posted [p:936559488] in 30 days to... [t:78527301]...</cite> <quote>papercup posted... </cite> <quote>It's important to remember that the way recoveries are counted are testing negative twice after testing positive. So not everyone that feels better will get another test, let alone 2, so the recovery rate is much MUCH higher than what is reported.</quote> I wish I could say that matters, but...sadly, at least for Italy's numbers, the number of deaths compared to the number of people who were confirmed to have the virus is what is important. That ratio shows it as being over 10% of the people who were confirmed to have the virus have died at this point. Now, it's quite possible not everyone was tested (highly likely in fact) that had the virus. Even if only half of those with the virus were tested though, that is still above a 5% mortality rate, which is completely and totally unheard of at this point. The flue has a .1% mortality rate. The gov is currently trying to say the this virus only has a 1% mortality rate even though the numbers that China released (which are obviously very unlikely to be true) show it having a higher mortality rate than that (significantly). China has settled down (few deaths each day now) to end with a 4% death rate out of those who tested positive. They seem to have at least hit a downward curve (but some reports say it's starting up again). The point though here is even if China is telling the truth (They certainly wouldn't exagerate the number of deaths) we are talking about a 4% death rate of people tested and probably at least a 2% death rate of the population who caught the virus. And it's highly (Extremely highly) likely they are covering up some things. So yeah, more are recovering than we know, but...the number that really matters is the % of people who get it who die, and well, that is looking to be at least double what the US is trying to say it is. It is almost certainly over a 2% death rate, and based on Italy, might be over 5%. --- Agatha "Your naked and they are nuns, it's not your eyes they're not looking at." Glowing Elephant "Stonehedge was a sex thing."</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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