LogFAQs > #936554996

I mean, honestly? I don't know where they are getting these numbers, they seem WAY to low.

Even with full quarantine/SAH, I would expect a much larger number. Look at ITaly which imposed far more stringent measures WAY earlier than us.

Curent confirmed virus cases in Italy, 105k
Current # of deaths in Italy 12,428 (over 10%)
Current number of cases that have fully recovered 15,729.

That is with a full lockdown in effect, and a fairly strong lockdown that was started almost right away when cases started to pop up, WAY before the US started any SAH at all.

MEanwhile Italy has less than 1/5th our total population.

So if we only get hit as hard as them, it seems likely we would have at least 5x as many deaths (and honestly probably far more due to not having the resources to hospitalize such a large number, even italy was having to choose who to admit).

I would suggest that any number of deaths less then 1 million in the US before this is over would be a good result (even if we actually start really locking everything down), not 100k.

It should be menttoned that in JUST New York and New Jersey at this point, we have about as many cases as Italy has all together. If this continues to spread like it has in those locations (And honestly it doesn't seem like we are doing much to prevent that), we should end up with waaay more then 5x as many people getting the virus as Italy. They have 60million people in Italy and only 105k total confirmed cases.

It's highly likely that if we don't start taking this seriously, we could have more than 10x that many infected, possibly 20x or more if it totally gets out of control.

We have 320 MILLION people in the US, and as we can see in NY it can spread very fast, so yeah, if even 33% of our pop actually contracts the virus, that would be over 100 million cases....compared to Italy's 100k.....or 1000x as many cases...and therefore likely AT LEAST 1000x as many deaths.

Currently itally has over 12k deaths....multiply that by 1000x and your talking about 12 million deaths, not 100k.

Those are the worst case numbers we should be seeing, not......if we didn't do anything we would have 1-2 million. That doesn't make mathmatical sense at all.

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