LogFAQs > #936492165

OhhhJa posted...

Bullshit. With how much travel there is between China and the US, there's no way it wasn't here immediately. Probably in November. I think it's even been confirmed at this point. With China attempting to cover it up, it could even be argued they used it as a bioweapon to spread it globally

The speed at which it has expanded in NY for instance shows that it was not here for months already. The cases we initially saw, where almost definately the first cases in this country.

The current ratio of cases confirmed to deaths is more around 2%, but there are probably MANY cases that have not been confirmed (Even in NY). That being said, there is also currently no serious shortage of medical supplies/beds yet, which can drastically increase the number of deaths later on.

Italy though has 101k cases and 11k deaths, so slightly over a 10% death rate.

One would hope the US numbers are not going to be that high.

I would strongly suggest that a 1% death rate though would be ABSOUTELY FREAKING AMAZING) considering china had between a 4% and 5% death rate based on people who tested postive (even saying only half that had it were tested, that is still over a 2% death rate).

If there is no way to prevent at least 66% of US citizens from getting the virus, and we have even a 3% death rate (which could be way worse mind you), that is still 3% of 220million people, or about 7 million people that shoull die with those figures.

I would suggest that is pretty much a best case scenerio if the social distancing is taken as seriously here as it has been in Italy.

World wide, there are places that are going to dwarf us as far as death rates. India is an excellent example with 4x our population and extreme pop density. Along with the lack of medical resources, you could see a 13-18% death rate (Based on cases that need critical care here to prevent death). That would be insane amounts of death (seriously if it hit 20% of 1.2 billion that is 240 million just in India.)

Maybe something will be found to help fight the virus, or at least prevent it from hitting so hard etc in time. Social distancing is the key though cause other than that, we have absolutely no defense right now.

Now I'm not sure on my numbers exactly, the whole 13% needing medical help is really not nailed down for sure, but that could be looked at as a baseline % of deaths without outside resources (Ventilators, machines, hospital beds etc). The less people that need them at one time, the more people will live basically.

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