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Topic	An analysis on Guru bracket winners and amount of risks taken
TsunamiXXVIII 03/27/20 7:58:06 PM #32:	squexa posted... 2008's wonky because of Snake. Most people thought Link > Cloud > Snake but because of 4-way shenanigans, Snake beat Cloud twice and thus elevated a small group of people who made this correct call to the top. Some of them took a bunch of risks in the beginning that were possibly wrong but those early risks were worth much fewer points. The thing to keep in mind is that not all risks are the same. Taking a round 1 upset is different than a semifinal/final upset. It wasn't just Snake. Vincent had knocked Crono out of the contest in 2007, becoming the first character to ever beat a Noble Niner in a Contest Battle (L-Block did finish second to Snake in their R3 meeting and the Vincent > Crono was earlier in R4 than L-Block's matches), so he was favored to do so again in 2008, and furthermore the cookie then had Vincent taking advantage of Link's dominating SFF to advance past Mario and Samus in R5--which is exactly what Crono did. And those are just the ones that the Guru winner got right. The Cookie also expected Kirby to advance in second place in Round 2, behind Master Chief, before going out in Round 3 behind Master Chief/Dante. Instead, it was Master Chief who finish second in R2 before going out in R3 behind Dante, while Kirby added an upset of Sonic in R4 for good measure. This was one that the winner got wrong, though it does help to explain why the runner-up had so many risks as well; he got it, well, a lot closer to right. Besides, absolutely no one correctly called Kirby getting past R4 so correctly calling him finishing in first place the previous two rounds was the best anyone did. Said runner-up also correctly called that the fourth character in the Samus/Vincent/Crono match would not be Ryu, but Pikachu. And that doesn't even account for Weighted Companion Cube reaching Round 4, which only one Guru called correctly but they were a little too reliant on the jokes and had L-Block returning to the final. Or both Square characters advancing out of the Squall/Yoshi/Sora/Fox match in R2, giving Mewtwo a free pass to R4 in the wake of Cloud's SFF hammer (cookie expectation was that Yoshi would beat out Sora for second place behind Squall, then ride Cloud's SFF to get past Squall in R3.) The winner might have been Link as usual, but yeah, 2008 had a lot of unexpected results along the way. --- Also known as Cyberchao X. <cite>TsunamiXXVIII posted [p:936343497] in An analysi... [t:78458663]...</cite> <quote>squexa posted... </cite> <quote>2008's wonky because of Snake. Most people thought Link > Cloud > Snake but because of 4-way shenanigans, Snake beat Cloud twice and thus elevated a small group of people who made this correct call to the top. Some of them took a bunch of risks in the beginning that were possibly wrong but those early risks were worth much fewer points. The thing to keep in mind is that not all risks are the same. Taking a round 1 upset is different than a semifinal/final upset.</quote> It wasn't just Snake. Vincent had knocked Crono out of the contest in 2007, becoming the first character to ever beat a Noble Niner in a Contest Battle (L-Block did finish second to Snake in their R3 meeting and the Vincent > Crono was earlier in R4 than L-Block's matches), so he was favored to do so again in 2008, and furthermore the cookie then had Vincent taking advantage of Link's dominating SFF to advance past Mario and Samus in R5--which is exactly what Crono did. And those are just the ones that the Guru winner got right. The Cookie also expected Kirby to advance in second place in Round 2, behind Master Chief, before going out in Round 3 behind Master Chief/Dante. Instead, it was Master Chief who finish second in R2 before going out in R3 behind Dante, while Kirby added an upset of Sonic in R4 for good measure. This was one that the winner got wrong, though it does help to explain why the runner-up had so many risks as well; he got it, well, a lot closer to right. Besides, absolutely no one correctly called Kirby getting past R4 so correctly calling him finishing in first place the previous two rounds was the best anyone did. Said runner-up also correctly called that the fourth character in the Samus/Vincent/Crono match would not be Ryu, but Pikachu. And that doesn't even account for Weighted Companion Cube reaching Round 4, which only one Guru called correctly but they were a little too reliant on the jokes and had L-Block returning to the final. Or both Square characters advancing out of the Squall/Yoshi/Sora/Fox match in R2, giving Mewtwo a free pass to R4 in the wake of Cloud's SFF hammer (cookie expectation was that Yoshi would beat out Sora for second place behind Squall, then ride Cloud's SFF to get past Squall in R3.) The winner might have been Link as usual, but yeah, 2008 had a lot of unexpected results along the way. --- Also known as Cyberchao X.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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