LogFAQs > #935853515

Legends Bracket Final: Link vs. Zelda

Link 18399
Zelda 10547

There was a very real fear here that we were going to get an SFF blowout in what would be the final match if we still had a single-elimination format, resulting in some absolutely hilarious raw X-Stats. Then again, it's not like Link had been all that terribly challenged in earlier rounds either. There was a lot of debate as to which matches to use for the purpose of calculating X-Stats, the Legends Bracket (because that's what a traditional bracket would have produced) or the Losers Bracket (because those were the ones that caused eliminations and thus "meant more"), but let's face it, either way they were going to be inaccurate. Which pretty much is the same as every other year, because character battles have never been transient. The raw X-Stats are a joke because of SFF and bandwagoning and all sorts of weird factors that make up the matches, and the adjusted X-Stats are an even bigger joke because they represent guesswork and are subject to biases. In the early days, when a character was behind SFF, the tradition was to just assign them the previous contest's X-Stat value, which is how we ended up with 84% of Gurus picking Magus to win three matches in a year he won none. Frankly, this still comes off as more sensible than the current method of casually ignoring direct results that are inconvenient to the current narrative because there was obviously some sort of rally (example: Mario being ahead of Zelda in this year's adjusted X-Stats). I mean, yes, when there really was a rally, it massively obfuscates any sort of meaningful calculation, especially since it becomes harder and harder to figure out what the entrant's unrallied strength is because the rallies show up earlier and earlier. We all joked about Mass Effect 3 being #2 in the X-Stats in 2015, but it was the one that forced Undertale to make its largest comeback. Meanwhile, the "just assume that Link/Legend of Zelda is #1" logic wasn't even close to viable because the finals against Ocarina of Time was legitimately the only time that Undertale never trailed. So which of Undertale's victims was given the #1 spot in the adjusted X-Stats? Pokmon RBYG, which had been building a lead even as Undertale was trying to rally? Melee, which actually managed to wipe out a four-digit deficit against Undertale before eventually fading away? ...Yeah these are really the only two logical options even if technically Mass Effect 3 was closer. And the answer is...none of them, because the acceptability of a rally is based not only on the rallying entrant, but on the opponent--possibly more on the opponent. Well, no, it's on both. Zelda may not have been allowed to remain ahead of Mario in the X-Stats, but I doubt those people minded too much the previous match when Samus would've beaten if not for the registered voter bonus, even if the fact that it was the registered voters who allowed Mario to win suggests otherwise. Because Samus is a member of the Noble Nine, and one who the X-Stats frequently suggested was indirectly stronger than Mario anyway. Her finally beating him is good theater. Zelda being here was a "farce". Point is, the whole board was fine with RBYG and Melee counterrallying against Undertale, but Melee has to sit behind the last two foes it vanquished, Chrono Trigger and Final Fantasy VII. OoT actually did get the #2 spot, ahead of FFVII but behind CT. They saw CT put up over 81% in Round 2 and then get 65.52% on a game that had been in the Top 4 of each of the last two games contests and they were like "yeah CT's winning this as long as we can stop the Undertale monster". Now we couldn't, so it was a moot point, but let's be honest here: if Melee hadn't gone on rallies, CT absolutely still loses to FFVII. The stats people would've still put CT as the stronger game, because that's an SFF match, but FFVII doesn't lose to other Square games. We've seen those two games face each other before, and there's no good reason to think CT could turn it around (though there are plenty of bad ones, like backlash against the episodic content of the FF7 rerelease or the fact that other games are declining while CT, being so old already, can't really decline because everyone left here is part of that core fanbase. Except these contests have never been decided solely by the board's or even the site's tastes, and the fact that the registered voter bonus only flipped three matches when there were far more where the registered and unregistered voters disagreed only accentuates this.)

Anyway, it turned out to be a moot point because Zelda easily avoided the doubling. In fact, let's go back and look at the last time Link and Mario went head-to-head in a character battle.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3844

And now Zelda's win over Mario:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7379

Based on that, Zelda would be expected to get about 36.07% on Link. If you adjust for the registered vote bonus in the Zelda-Mario match, it'd be more like 36.77%.

And her percentage was...36.44%. Actual percentage 35.78%, because yes, Zelda actually had a better percentage with registered voters than unregistered. Still, that's not that far off, which makes it all the more ridiculous that the adjustments put Mario ahead of Zelda.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.