LogFAQs > #934390084

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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 268: Hope & Change
Corrik7 02/14/20 8:00:10 PM #302:	red sox 777 posted... People are misunderstanding this. The Clinton 99% people were obviously wrong. They could have had a great model and a correct prediction based on the information they had, but then their information was lacking. It's like the question, what are the odds of the next card in a pack of cards being a K? You might say 1/13. But what if the previous cards were A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q? Now it's overwhelmingly likely you have an unshuffled pack - and the probability of the next card being K is nearly 100%. That's what I am trying to say. If an insignificant result happens. Then you have to assume your model was just wrong and wonder how it went wrong. Not just be like, that result happens one time in 100. It happens. --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) <cite>Corrik7 posted [p:934390084] in Politics C... [t:78403764]...</cite> <quote>red sox 777 posted... </cite> <quote>People are misunderstanding this. The Clinton 99% people were obviously wrong. They could have had a great model and a correct prediction based on the information they had, but then their information was lacking. It's like the question, what are the odds of the next card in a pack of cards being a K? You might say 1/13. But what if the previous cards were A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q? Now it's overwhelmingly likely you have an unshuffled pack - and the probability of the next card being K is nearly 100%.</quote>That's what I am trying to say. If an insignificant result happens. Then you have to assume your model was just wrong and wonder how it went wrong. Not just be like, that result happens one time in 100. It happens. --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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