Go with the guy they are pushing the hardest/safest bet (Austins, Cenas, Rollins, etc.)
Go with the guy they WANT to push the hardest, but isn't the biggest name yet (ADR, Sheamus, Reigns in 15 kinda hit #1 and #2)
Begrudgingly, go with what the fans want and fuck over the winner later to the person they actually care about (Asuka, Nakamura)
Reigns is the safest bet this year, and doesn't have the "ANYONE BUT ROMAN" stigma they used to put HHH, Rollins, and Nakamura over this time. I can't think of a time Rumble was used as a shock win for a nobody. ADR and Sheamus are probably the closest, but you know the WWE wanted them from day 1.
---
"Evening caress, Always yearning, I must confess, The stars aren't burning" Copernicus - Candlemass