LogFAQs > #928805480

Yeah, clear frontunner I'd disagree with. She just isn't. She's absolutely trending in the right direction (and Biden is, at best, staying even) and I do believe it's accurate to call her the favorite based on these trends but clear frontunner implies to me that they both have the trends and a substantial polling lead... and Warren does not have the latter yet. She's basically pulled even with Biden +/- a few points depending on how you look at it.

To expand on The Economist's aggregate, just taking a quick glance, looking at the polls they're counting (just the recent ones displayed by default, I didn't expand it for all of them because that'd take too long) it's the list you'd get if you filtered 538's National Poll list with the requirement that you look at B-ranked pollsters and above - with two exceptions. The Economist includes two polls that 538 does not assign a ranking to (lack of data, I assume) both are Warren polls. One is a +2 poll but the other is a this-has-to-be-an-outlier +13 Warren poll.

The other thing is, that B-rated quality filter excludes only two pollsters over that timeframe from 538's list. Morning Consult (B-) and HarrisX (C+). These are uniformly all polls that are at least Biden+10 so there's that too. Now, what exactly it means that on 538 that you can draw a clear line at between B-and-above rated pollsters and B- -and-below pollsters where you have a close race with the better rated ones and a clear Biden lead on the lower ones I don't know, but it is an interesting contrast, I think.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?