Here is my prediction for TAR31. I know that there are spoilers out for this season but I haven't looked at any. If this turns out to be partially/mostly/completely accurate I swear it was just educated guessing.
11th - Art & J.J. - We didn't see this one coming, but perhaps we should have. They are seven years older and seven years fatter than last time they raced, and as I said before, it's entirely possible that their success in TAR20 was attributed largely to the abnormally high number of incompetent teams that season.
10th - Rupert & Laura - Corinne and Eliza got it right when they said they are old and fat. Neither of them was ever truly a physical powerhouse in Survivor other than Rupert in his very first appearance 16 years ago. I can't decide if they'll be a target due to Rupert's popularity or a non-target because of their lack of physicality but the truth is I don't think it will matter.
9th - Bret & Chris - The third of three old/fat teams; I don't think this will be a kind season to that type of team. And they won't be missed either. Easily the most baffling casting choice this season.
8th - Corinne & Eliza - Again, they are not physical players, and they survived the first leg due to the incompetence/inabilities of two other teams, one of which is already eliminated so that's one less cussion for them. They'll be entertaining as heck while they're around, but I don't think that will be for long. And with that, the Survivor teams are officially out of the running.
7th - Tyler & Korey - They are very strong but not invincible. The fact that they came in third (not even second) on a season that was theirs to lose says a lot about the "one bad leg" factor. They could easily be a surprise episode 6 or 7 boot.
6th - Becca & Floyd - Last time Floyd got really fatigued as the race went on and I foresee that happening again. One placement below their previous finish for tougher competition.
5th - Colin & Christy - Putting them here because I want to see how well they do after all these years away from the race.
4th - Janelle & Brittany - Get cut just before the final leg.
3rd - Rachel & Elissa - Because Rachel finishing 3rd in TAR is a tradition.
2nd - Leo & Jamal - I would be stunned if they don't make the finals this time. That being said...
1st - Nicole & Victor - I'm going out on a limb and saying that the season is NOT won by TAR alumni, and Nicole & Victor hit all the right notes for TAR winners - young, fit, smart (eh, arguably... they know how to game), attractive, work well together, I don't see any flaws to keep them from winning and Nicole from being the first person to win two of the big three. ---