LogFAQs > #916855121

As my analysis suggests, I'm going with C-Team. The fragment I land on is titled "Monty Hall". Oh, I know that one! In this one, the probability really is 2 in 3. I'll explain it for those who don't know. It's named after the host of the old game show "Let's Make A Deal". A contestant chooses one of three doors. Two of the doors have booby prizes behind them and one has a desirable prize. One of the doors that they didn't pick is then opened to reveal a booby prize, and the contestant is offered the choice to change their choice to the other unopened door. It seems, to the untrained contestant, that their chances of getting the prize if they switch are 50-50, but they aren't. It's 2 in 3 that they should switch.

See, there are six possible courses of events.

A: Door 1 is chosen, and Door 2 is opened.
B: Door 1 is chosen, and Door 3 is opened.
C: Door 2 is chosen, and Door 1 is opened.
D: Door 2 is chosen, and Door 3 is opened.
E: Door 3 is chosen, and Door 1 is opened.
F: Door 3 is chosen, and Door 2 is opened.

Except two of these will never happen. If, say, Door 2 has the desirable prize, A and F will not happen. You may think to yourself that that leaves 4 options, two where switching is right and two where it's wrong--but that would create the paradoxical outcome that the contestant had a 50% chance of choosing correctly in the first place! To illustrate it better, map each outcome to a side of a 6-sided die, and add the word "then" to the conditions. The contestant's choice is made based on the result of the die toss, and then the producers' choice of which door to open is based on it as well--except they're not allowed to reveal if the roll was invalid, so they'll covertly change it to a roll that doesn't invalidate the player's choice. Essentially, in the example above, it's a 6-sided die with the numbers 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5.

It of course becomes easier to see the more doors you add. If you had 100 doors to begin with, your choice is made, and 98 booby prizes are revealed, it becomes easy to see that there's a 99% chance that switching is the correct move and only a 1% chance that sticking with your original choice is correct. But for whatever reason, people don't inherently see that when it's just 3 doors. I think it's probably because there's only one door opened. As few as 4 doors would probably make people more likely to switch. And it does inherently rely on opening all but two doors. If, say, there were 4 doors originally and only one door is opened, the odds of winning are still better if you switch than if you don't, but the odds will never completely be in your favor. There's a 25% chance that switching is the wrong move, a 37.5% chance that you switch to the right door, and a 37.5% chance that you switch from one wrong door to another wrong door.

But wow, I've filled up most of a post without any gameplay. I kind of geek out at math, especially probabilities. We're in the Control Room, where transmissions to the outside world would theoretically happen if they could, as well as managing air and water. They're locked in, of course. Oh, and it's also the security room. Carlos is surprised there are security cameras, and Akane says that it's 2028; she'd be surprised if there weren't cameras everywhere. Junpei says that the ones he used for work were the size of a woman's nipple, then backpedals and says that he guesses not uniformly, because nipple sizes differ. Why do I feel like Clover is involved in this somehow? There's also a carbon dioxide extinguisher in there; Akane notes that Carlos's eyes immediately going to that is telling that he's a firefighter. Junpei feels threatened by Akane praising Carlos, and she apologizes to Carlos for Junpei's behavior, saying that when he was younger, he used to rush to the rescue a lot. Junpei says he's done playing the action hero. I don't like jaded Junpei.
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Also known as Cyberchao X.